POP MART(09992) 天风证券·2024-07-26 04:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's H1 2024 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of at least 55% YoY and profit growth of at least 90% YoY [1] - The company's strong performance is attributed to increased global recognition of its brand and IPs, diversified product categories, and optimized cost control [1] - Pop Mart's overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and the US, has been successful, with high single-store sales performance [1] - The company's new product lines, including blind boxes, plush toys, building blocks, and cards, have enhanced product playability and interactivity [1] - Pop Mart's self-developed mobile game "Dream Home" has contributed to the enrichment of its IP ecosystem and strengthened emotional connections with players [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Pop Mart's H1 2024 revenue is expected to be at least RMB 4.362 billion, and profit is expected to be at least RMB 906 million, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] - The company's 2024-2025 revenue is forecasted to be RMB 9.44 billion and RMB 12.53 billion, representing YoY growth of 49.8% and 32.7%, respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for 2024-2025 is projected to be RMB 2.103 billion and RMB 2.749 billion, with YoY growth of 76.6% and 30.7%, respectively [1] Product and IP Performance - Pop Mart has 16 series in the top 20 of Tmall's blind box bestseller list, including "Dragon's Roar," "SKULLPANDA Temperature," and "THE MONSTER Invisible" [1] - The LABUBU Heart Macaron blind box has sold over 200,000 units on Tmall as of July 25, 2024 [1] - The company launched its building block product line POPBLOCKS in May 2024, starting with the LABUBU Forest Secret Base series, which enhances the storytelling aspect of its IPs [1] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart opened 26 new overseas stores in H1 2024, compared to 19 in H1 2023, with significant growth in the US and Southeast Asia [1] - The company opened 6 new stores in the US, including locations in Seattle, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas [1] - In Southeast Asia, Pop Mart opened 2 new stores in Vietnam and 2 in Thailand, with the Bangkok LABUBU IP-themed store achieving a record-breaking RMB 10 million in sales on its opening day [1] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic retail store revenue grew by 20%-25% YoY in Q1 2024, while robot store revenue increased by 15%-20% YoY [1] - Pop Mart's domestic market has shown resilience and strong alpha attributes compared to the broader market [1] New Business Initiatives - Pop Mart's self-developed mobile game "Dream Home" was released on June 27, 2024, and ranked first on the iOS China game download chart on its launch day [1] - The game, which combines simulation and party gameplay, has over 5 million pre-registrations and aims to deepen player engagement with Pop Mart's IPs [1]