LENOVO GROUP(00992) 民生证券·2024-07-30 02:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Lenovo Group, citing its leadership in the AI-driven PC and server markets and its potential to lead a new growth cycle in the industry [1][2] Core Views - Lenovo Group is positioned as a leader in the PC industry, with a strong focus on AI-driven transformation across its three core business groups: IDG (Intelligent Devices Group), ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group), and SSG (Solutions and Services Group) [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the PC and server markets, with AI PCs and AI servers driving future growth [1][2] - Lenovo's SSG business is a key profit driver, with an operating profit margin of 21.4% in FY2024, significantly higher than other business groups [1][4] Business Group Analysis IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - Lenovo's IDG business, which accounts for 73.12% of FY2024 revenue, is leading the next growth cycle in the PC industry, with a 22.7% global market share in 2023 [1][2] - The company is well-positioned in the AI PC market, with products expected to drive commercial orders in 2H24 [1][2] ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - Lenovo's ISG business, contributing 14.63% of FY2024 revenue, is a key player in the AI server market, ranking as the third-largest global AI infrastructure provider [1][3] - The company has introduced servers compatible with next-gen chips like B200 and GB200, which are expected to contribute significantly to performance in 2H24 [1][3] SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG, accounting for 12.25% of FY2024 revenue, is a high-margin business with a focus on AI-driven solutions for enterprises, SMEs, and consumers [1][4] - The group's "One Engine, Three Arrows" strategy aims to meet the intelligent needs of various customer segments, driving AI application deployment [1][4] Financial Projections - Lenovo is projected to achieve revenues of 66.06 billion, and 1.22 billion, 1.90 billion [2] - The company's PE ratios for FY2025-FY2027 are estimated at 13x, 10x, and 8x, reflecting a recovery in the PC and server markets [2] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - Lenovo holds a dominant position in the global PC market, with a 23% market share in 1Q24, and is a top player in the server market, ranking third globally [1][7] - The company's global supply chain and production capabilities, with 31 manufacturing bases worldwide, support its competitive edge in both PC and server markets [7][27] AI-Driven Transformation - Lenovo is accelerating its AI transformation, with AI PCs and AI servers expected to drive future growth [1][3] - The company's AI PC strategy includes three phases: AI Ready, AI Explore, and AI Master, with products expected to drive significant growth in 2H24 and beyond [30][31][35] Industry Trends - The PC market is showing signs of recovery, with AI PCs expected to drive a new growth cycle [1][2] - The AI server market is growing rapidly, with Lenovo well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [3][49][53]