Binjiang Group(002244) 民生证券·2024-07-30 10:30Investment Rating - The report gives Binjiang Group a "Recommend" rating for the first time, with expected PE multiples of 7/6/6 for 2024-2026 [2][43] Core Views - Binjiang Group is a leading real estate company in Hangzhou, with a deep-rooted advantage in the Zhejiang market centered around Hangzhou [2] - The company has been actively reducing financing costs and scaling back interest-bearing debt, adopting a "proactive crouching and crawling forward" strategy to navigate market fluctuations [2] - With policy support such as interest rate cuts and lower down payment ratios in 2024, the company's real estate development business is expected to recover as the market stabilizes [2] Company Overview - Binjiang Group was established in 1992 and has a first-class development qualification from the Ministry of Construction [6] - The company's businesses include real estate development, property investment, property services, hotel operations, and long-term apartment rentals [6] - As of Q1 2024, the top ten shareholders hold 71.14% of the shares, with the top five shareholders holding 64.73% [7] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 70.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.73%, with real estate sales contributing 69.335 billion yuan, up 70.49% [10] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.401 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 35.52% YoY, mainly due to asset impairment provisions of 3.78 billion yuan and credit impairment provisions of 527 million yuan [10] - As of Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 648 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.77% [10] Sales and Investment - In 2023, the company achieved sales of 153.47 billion yuan, flat compared to the previous year, and sales area of 3.114 million square meters, up 12.62% [15][16] - As of H1 2024, the company achieved sales of 58.23 billion yuan, down 37.10% YoY, and sales area of 941,000 square meters, down 48.75% [15][16] - In 2023, the company added new projects with a total construction area of 3.33 million square meters, with land costs of 25.6 billion yuan, and 60% of the land reserve is in Hangzhou [18] Market Position in Hangzhou - In 2023, Hangzhou's land transfer revenue was 180.3 billion yuan, second only to Shanghai, with an average premium rate of 8.8%, ranking second among the top 20 cities [22] - Binjiang Group achieved sales of 127.67 billion yuan in Hangzhou in 2023, more than double that of the second-place Greentown China, and sales area of 2.672 million square meters, 1.65 times that of Greentown China [22] Financing and Debt - As of the end of 2023, the company's interest-bearing debt was 41.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.027 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with bank loans accounting for 79.8% and direct financing accounting for 20.2% [26] - The company's average financing cost has been declining, from 5.2% in 2020 to 4.2% in 2023, and further to 3.7% as of May 24, 2024 [28][39] Profit Forecast - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 73.009 billion yuan, 75.601 billion yuan, and 76.163 billion yuan, respectively [31] - The gross profit margin for real estate business is expected to be 13.15%, 12.54%, and 12.83% for 2024-2026, respectively [36]