BUD APAC(01876) 华创证券·2024-08-01 23:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.5 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Budweiser APAC faced significant sales pressure in China during Q2 2024 due to adverse weather, weak consumer demand, and high base effects from the previous year. However, strong performance in South Korea and India helped mitigate some of these challenges [2][3]. - The company achieved total revenue of USD 3.4 billion in H1 2024, with a normalized EBITDA of USD 1.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.2% and 4.3% respectively [1][2]. - The report anticipates a slight improvement in performance in H2 2024 due to lower base effects and ongoing strong growth in South Korea and India, despite continued challenges in the Chinese market [2][3]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, Budweiser APAC reported total revenue of USD 3.4 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 7.3% [1]. - The normalized EBITDA for the same period was USD 1.1 billion, down 6.2% year-on-year [1]. - The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 550 million, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2024, total revenue was USD 1.756 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 10.6% [1][2]. - The normalized EBITDA for Q2 was USD 530 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.0% [1][2]. - The normalized net profit for Q2 was USD 250 million, down 8.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Regional Performance - In the Asia Pacific West region, Q2 sales in China faced significant pressure, with a year-on-year decline in both volume and price [2]. - Conversely, the Asia Pacific East region showed strong sales growth, with a 6.0% increase in volume and a 14.4% increase in price, leading to a substantial recovery in profitability [2]. - The report notes that the strong performance in India and South Korea contributed significantly to overall revenue, with the P&SP combination in India achieving double-digit growth [2]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the operational pressure in China may ease in H2 2024 due to lower base effects and strategic initiatives to adapt to the new market conditions [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are USD 920 million, USD 990 million, and USD 1.05 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [1][2].