百润股份：威士忌业务蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The whisky business of the company is poised for growth, with the first batch of whisky barrels filled in October 2021 and expected to be released soon, as they have been stored for nearly three years [2][11]. - The domestic whisky market is still in its early stages, with a market size of 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, significantly smaller compared to the baijiu market [2][13]. - The company is expected to lead the domestic whisky market due to its systematic approach to product localization, consumer education, and channel development [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Whisky Business Development - The company began planning its whisky distillery in 2016, with production starting in October 2021. By December 2023, 300,000 barrels had been filled, indicating a significant investment in the whisky sector [2][11]. 2. Domestic Whisky Consumption Market - The domestic whisky market is still developing, with a size of 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, compared to 756.3 billion yuan for baijiu. The whisky market is expected to grow as consumer preferences shift towards more personalized drinking experiences [2][13]. - The majority of whisky consumed in China is imported, with 33,000 tons imported in 2023, valued at 580 million USD. The main consumer demographic is younger individuals, primarily in first-tier and coastal cities [2][15][21]. 3. Domestic Whisky Industry Development - As of March 2024, there are 42 licensed whisky production entities in China, with 26 projects currently operational. The total distillation capacity is projected to reach 250,000 tons [2][24][26]. - The company is the largest player in the domestic whisky market, with significant investments and a focus on local consumer insights and education [2][31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.82, 0.98, and 1.21 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22, 18, and 15 times based on the closing price of 17.8 yuan on July 31, 2024 [2][4][7].