证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒费投提效，期待威士忌催化 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营收 30.5 亿元，同比-6.6%； 归母净利润 7.2 亿元，同比-11.2%。其中 24Q4 实现营收 6.6 亿元，同比 -18.0%；归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同比+0.5%。25Q1 实现营收 7.4 亿元， 同比-8.1%；归母净利润 1.8 亿元，同比+7.0%。 预调酒因高基数及需求偏弱仍有压力，25Q1 烈酒贡献少量营收。2024 年 预调酒/香精收入同比-7.2%/+6.3%，预调酒业务因高基数、需求偏弱增 长承压，香精业务表现稳健。量价拆分来看，2024 年预调酒销量同比-8.8% 至 3238 万箱，单箱价格同比+1.8%至 82.7 元，我们认为单箱价格提升主 要受产品及渠道结构变化影响。分渠道来看，2024 年线下/数字零售/即饮 渠道同比-1.5%/-30.8%/-43.6%，线下渠道相对稳健，电商及即饮渠道快 速收缩。25Q1 公司收入同比-8.1%，我们预计预调酒业务在相 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒企稳，威士忌扬帆起航 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2024 年度报告，24 年实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 30.5/7.2/6.7 亿元，同比-6.6%/-11.2%/-13.6%，强爽销售承压，清爽增速显著。 结构改善叠加成本红利带动毛利率提升，围绕重点产品加大市场推广力度。 25Q1 预调鸡尾酒业务环比企稳，威士忌新品开始铺货。预计 25-27 年 EPS 为 0.78、0.89、1.03 元，当前股价对应 25 年 34 倍 PE，上调至"强烈推荐"评 级。 ❑ 风险提示：新品推广不及预期，行业竞争阶段性加剧，原材料成本上涨。 强烈推荐（上调） 目标估值： 当前股价：26.33 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1049 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 718 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 27.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 18.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 15.0 | | 资产负债率 | 41.2 ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 百润股份（002568.SZ） | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,639 | 4,103 | 4,491 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 25.9 | -6.6 | 19.4 | 12.8 | 9.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 809 | 719 | 863 | 1,004 | 1,122 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 55.3 | -11.2 | 20.0 | 16.3 | 11.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 1.07 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 20.0 | 15.3 | 16.7 | 17.5 | 17.6 | | P/E（倍） | 34.1 | 38.4 | 32.0 | 27.5 | 24.6 | | P/B（倍） | 6 ...

事件：公司发布2024 年报及2025 年第一季度报告，2024 年实现营业收入30.48 亿元，同比-6.6%；实现 归母净利润7.19 亿元，同比-11.2%；实现扣非归母净利润6.72 亿元，同比-13.7%。分季度看，单24Q4 实现营业收入6.62 亿元，同比-18.0%；实现归母净利润1.45 亿元，同比+0.5%。单25Q1实现营业收入 7.37 亿元，同比-8.1%；实现归母净利润1.81 亿元，同比+7.0%。 业绩符合预期，25Q1 收入小幅下滑，预调酒业务企稳，威士忌双品牌增量陆续推出。2024 年全年公司 预调鸡尾酒（含气泡水等）/香精香料业务分别实现营业收入26.77/3.37 亿元，分别同比-7.2%/+6.3%， 预调酒业务占比提升至87.83%。分渠道而看，预调酒线下渠道/数字零售渠道/即饮渠道实现营业收入 27.11/2.66/0.36 亿元，分别同比-1.5%/-30.8%/-43.6%。 分业务表现看：1）预调酒：24 年整体销售同比-7.2%，其中销量/吨价分别-8.8%/+1.8%，全年358 矩阵 持续发力，分产品看，预计24 全年强爽占比达40-50%，进入产品生 ...

增持（维持） 2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to continue developing its pre-mixed liquor business with a focus on the 358 product matrix, aiming for positive growth in the upcoming year. The whisky business is anticipated to gain momentum with new product launches and successful channel expansion [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 35 billion and 40 billion RMB respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and 14%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 8.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is expected to be 30.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at 7.19 billion RMB, down 11.15% year-on-year [8][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.37 billion RMB, a decline of 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.03% to 1.81 billion RMB [8][3] - The gross margin improved by 2.97 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 23.6% [8][3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company aims for total revenue of 34 billion RMB in 2025 and 40 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 8.1 billion RMB and 9.7 billion RMB [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.77 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.24 [1][3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 26.33 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.63 billion RMB [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.89 and a total asset-liability ratio of 41.18% [7][6]

Group 1: Company Overview and Performance - The company, Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., is actively developing its existing businesses while accelerating the cultivation of new ones, with a focus on digital management to strengthen its long-term strategic goals [2][3]. - The pre-mixed cocktail and flavoring businesses are operating steadily, while the liquor business began generating a small amount of revenue in Q1 2025, maintaining a high gross margin [3]. Group 2: Whisky Product Development - The company has developed a product matrix for whisky, including blended and single malt whiskies, tailored to Chinese consumer preferences and drinking scenarios [4]. - In March 2025, the company launched "Bailide" blended whisky products, with plans to introduce various types of single malt whiskies throughout 2025 [4]. Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - A professional marketing team will be established to promote whisky products through experiential marketing and partnerships, with a cultural experience center in Chengdu set to open in 2025 [5]. - The experience center will combine distillery tours, cultural experiences, and leisure activities to enhance consumer engagement with whisky culture [5]. Group 4: Industry Recognition and Awards - The company's whisky products have received multiple prestigious awards, including the "Icon of Whisky" awards and various accolades from influential industry media [6][7]. - The recognition reflects the high regard for the company's products within the whisky community, showcasing consumer appreciation and industry validation [7]. Group 5: Future Product Plans - The company is developing pre-mixed cocktails based on whisky, with plans for gradual market introduction according to business strategies [7]. - The company aims to enhance its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails by introducing new flavors and improving packaging to meet consumer demand for value [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 30.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The report highlights strong Q1 profits and anticipates growth driven by whiskey products, despite challenges in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved gross margins, with a focus on expanding its whiskey product line to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items to be 3.05 billion, 720 million, and 670 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 6.6%, 11.2%, and 13.6% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 660 million RMB, with a net profit of 140 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 18.0% in revenue but a slight increase of 0.5% in net profit [1]. - Q1 2025 results show revenue of 740 million RMB, with net profit attributable to the parent at 180 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.1% in revenue but an increase of 7.0% in net profit [1][2]. Product and Market Analysis - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment faced pressure, with revenues declining by 7.2% to 2.68 billion RMB in 2024, while the edible flavor segment grew by 6.3% to 340 million RMB [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its whiskey offerings, with new products launched in Q1 2025, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue [1][2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 69.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower packaging costs and a higher proportion of high-margin flavor business [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 improved by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost benefits and a reduction in sales and management expenses [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 is 0.75 RMB and 0.82 RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 0.95 RMB [4][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the ready-to-drink cocktail business driven by consumer demand, while the whiskey segment is expected to provide additional growth opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a focus on the future sales performance of its whiskey products [7] - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, while the whiskey business is in its early stages and requires monitoring for future sales [7] - The company has a strong brand advantage in the pre-mixed beverage industry and has made significant progress in its product matrix since 2022 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 was 3,048 million, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 719 million, down 11.2% [6][7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 737 million, a decline of 8.1% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 7.0% to 181 million [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 809 million, 910 million, and 1,022 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 12.4%, and 12.3% [7][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 69.67%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [7] Business Performance - The pre-mixed beverage and flavoring business generated revenues of 2,677 million and 337 million respectively in 2024, with year-on-year changes of -7.17% and +6.3% [7] - The whiskey business began contributing revenue in Q1 2025, with the launch of "Bailide" blended whiskey [7] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of its whiskey business, contingent on successful sales operations and positive dealer order intentions [7]