证券研究报告 联合研究|联合研究点评 【国联民生研究】2025 年 8 月金股组 合 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年07月31日 |分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 |报告要点 7 月市场持续上行，政策和流动性共同对市场起到明显支撑作用。结构上，在"反内卷"等一 系列政策的带动下，大宗商品价格弹性较高，带动周期行业领涨市场。往后展望，流动性支撑 和风险偏好的逐步提升或仍将是市场的焦点，虽然市场调整的可能性在逐步提升，但调整的 幅度可能不深，随后等待新的催化出现后，市场仍有望保持上行趋势。 SAC：S0590524030005 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590523110001 SAC：S0590524110005 张玮航 丁士涛 武慧东 郇正林 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590523090001 SAC：S0590523080005 SAC：S0590524110001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 包承超 邓宇林 刘雨辰 郑薇 SAC：S0590523100005 SAC：S0590523100008 SAC：S ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement reveals that Liu Xiaodong, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of BaiRun Co., Ltd. (002568), has pledged 35.1 million shares, accounting for 8.25% of his holdings and 3.34% of the company's total share capital [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Pledge Details** - Liu Xiaodong pledged 35.1 million shares starting from July 24, 2025, for the purpose of repaying loans [1] - The total number of shares pledged by Liu Xiaodong has reached 72 million, which is 16.92% of his holdings and 6.86% of the company's total share capital [1] - **Unpledged Shares** - Liu Xiaodong has released a pledge on 67.15 million shares, representing 15.78% of his holdings and 6.40% of the company's total share capital [1]

债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-030 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 关于股东股份质押变动的公告 公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日收到控股股东、 实际控制人刘晓东先生的股份质押变动通知，其所持有的公司股份质押情况如下： 一、股东股份质押情况 | 股东 | 是否为控 股股东或 第一大股 | 本次质押 | 占其所 持股份 | 占公司 总股本 | 是否为 限售股 （如 | 是否 为补 | 质押 | 质押到期日 | 质权人 | 质押 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 东及其一 | 数量(股) | 比例 | 比例 | 是，注 | 充质 | 起始日 | | | 用途 | | | | | | | 明限售 | 押 | | | | | | | 致行动人 | | | | 类型） | | | 质权人向中 | 广发证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The liquor industry is strengthening its internal capabilities, with companies focusing on management, product, and channel improvements. The industry is currently at a low valuation and is expected to stabilize as sales pressure eases [2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, East Peak Beverage reported impressive mid-year results, while the industry continues to show high growth potential despite intense competition [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in product selection at Sam's Club, emphasizing operational efficiency through local supply chain adjustments [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is in a phase of continuous improvement, with major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu enhancing their management and product offerings. The industry is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn, but valuations are low, suggesting potential for recovery [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment is advised to focus on high-growth products and structural performance, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted. East Peak Beverage's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% [3]. Food Sector - Sam's Club is undergoing a significant product selection transformation, with a shift towards national best-selling items to improve operational efficiency. The report notes that the low-temperature dairy market is performing better than the ambient temperature segment [4][7].

上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、解除担保情况 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与上海银行股份 有限公司闵行支行（以下简称"上海银行闵行支行"）签订了《最高额保证合同》 （编号：ZDB232240168），为公司之全资子公司上海巴克斯酒业营销有限公司 （以下简称"巴克斯营销"）承担最高限额为 2 亿元的连带责任保证，详见 2024 年 5 月 18 日登载于《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》 及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《百润股份：关于为全资子公司提 供担保额度的进展公告》（公告编号：2024-034）。 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-029 （二）解除担保情况 近日，公司接到巴克斯营销、上海银行闵行支行通知，巴克斯营销已足额偿 还全部本息，根据《最高额保证合同》（编号：ZDB232240168）相 ...

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Baijiu Co. originated from the flavor and fragrance industry and has focused on the pre-mixed cocktail channel since establishing its subsidiary, Baijiu Spirits, in 2003, accumulating over 20 years of experience [3] - The company has successfully cultivated popular products like "Mildly Intoxicated" and "Strong Refreshing" and has proactively launched its Laizhou distillery for whiskey production since 2021, marking the beginning of its second growth curve [3][4] Industry Insights Pre-Mixed Cocktail Market - The pre-mixed cocktail market in China has low penetration rates, increasing from 0.1% in 2008 to 0.7% in 2023, significantly lower than the U.S. (9%) and Japan (22%) [5] - The market has experienced various phases: an enlightenment period before the 21st century, rapid growth from 2013 to 2015, and a deep adjustment phase from 2015 to 2017 [5] - Factors driving market growth include the demand for personalization, diversification, and health-conscious drinking among young consumers, alongside precise marketing strategies by manufacturers [5][8] Whiskey Market - The Chinese whiskey market has seen rapid growth, with the overall scale increasing from 1.288 billion yuan in 2013 to 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, averaging a growth rate of 16% [9] - Despite the growth, whiskey penetration remains low, with over 70% of the market dominated by foreign brands [9] - Young consumers are increasingly seeking diverse drinking options, which may lead to a rise in domestic whiskey brands [9][10] Key Business Strategies Product Development - Baijiu Co. has undergone three product cycles in its pre-mixed cocktail business, achieving significant sales growth from 9 million cases to 25 million cases between 2018 and 2021 [6] - The company plans to focus on cultivating refreshing products and introducing new categories to drive revenue growth in 2025 [4][8] Marketing and Sales - The company has leveraged its marketing experience from the pre-mixed cocktail sector to promote its whiskey products, utilizing emotional marketing, pop-up events, and interactive promotions [4][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a comprehensive channel system primarily focused on offline retail, aligning well with whiskey consumption channels [4][12] Pricing and Product Specifications - In March 2025, Baijiu Co. launched two whiskey products priced around 100 yuan, targeting the mass market with various specifications to cater to different consumption scenarios [13] - The company has also introduced a range of new whiskey products, including a flavor blind box that quickly gained popularity among consumers [13] Future Outlook - For 2025, Baijiu Co. anticipates a recovery in its pre-mixed cocktail business, supported by new product launches and a focus on marketing strategies [16] - The whiskey business is expected to see steady growth as new products are rolled out and sales channels are expanded [16] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with a focus on product matrix expansion and consumer engagement strategies [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential domestic policy adjustments and a recovery in consumer demand in the second half of the year [3][4] - The report suggests strategic positioning in leading liquor companies due to their low valuation and favorable market conditions [3][6] - The snack food segment shows strong growth potential, driven by product innovation and emerging sales channels [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with June 2025 retail sales increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [4][8] - The report notes that the decline in consumer spending on dining and discretionary items has impacted overall sales performance [4][5] Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with consumption scenarios limited by recent policy changes and promotional activities affecting pricing [6] - The report recommends focusing on top liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu for potential investment opportunities [3][6] Snack Food Sector - The snack food segment, particularly products like konjac, is experiencing robust growth due to health trends and diverse flavor offerings [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying quality companies in the snack food sector that align with industry development trends for long-term investment [3][6]

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage index increased by 0.8% from July 7 to July 11, ranking 23rd among 28 sectors, performing in line with the CSI 300 index. The sub-sectors of liquor (+1.4%), health products (+1.4%), and beer (+1.2%) showed relatively strong performance [11][12] - The current liquor market is experiencing downward pressure due to unexpected restrictions on alcohol consumption, leading to a decline in demand. However, it is anticipated that the liquor sector will find a bottom in the second half of the year, presenting potential investment opportunities [11][12] - The report suggests focusing on leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others for strategic investments. Additionally, it recommends identifying high-quality new consumption companies that align with industry trends for long-term holding [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Strategic focus on leading liquor companies and maintaining high-quality new consumption stocks. The liquor sector is expected to stabilize and present investment opportunities in the second half of the year [11][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance is consistent with the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like liquor and health products outperforming [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with whole milk powder prices showing a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while fresh milk prices have decreased by 6.5% year-on-year [15][20] Liquor Industry News - The market price of Kweichow Moutai has been steadily increasing, indicating a recovery in market confidence. Other companies are also taking measures to stabilize their pricing strategies [39] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, and others, focusing on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [4][45]

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index reported at 5488.14 points, showing a decline of 1.54% over the past month, an increase of 2.05% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 3.77% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen industry index series categorizes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Composite, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index include Meihua Biological (2.53%), Zhengbang Technology (2.43%), Yanjing Beer (2.2%), Anjii Food (1.83%), Maogeping (1.79%), Hengan International (1.76%), Dabeinong (1.66%), Dekang Animal Husbandry (1.64%), First Pacific (1.57%), and Bairun Co. (1.55%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings is 41.28% from Shanghai Stock Exchange, 41.17% from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 17.55% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings shows that food accounts for 32.70%, breeding for 20.94%, liquor for 17.06%, planting for 8.99%, beauty care for 6.79%, soft drinks for 6.78%, and household goods for 6.75% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]