百润股份：净利率环比改善，期待烈酒新品

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. Q2 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [2]. - The pre-mixed cocktail segment experienced a short-term revenue decline, with H1 revenue at 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%. The company is focusing on expanding consumption scenarios and enhancing brand marketing [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 70.1% in H1 2024, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 71.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and is set to launch a new whiskey product in Q4 2024, aiming to become a leader in the domestic whiskey market [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 400 million yuan. Q2 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, and net profit was 230 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 70.1%, with a net margin of 24.5%, while Q2 net margin recovered to 28% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated 1.43 billion yuan in H1 2024, while the flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 7.5% to 180 million yuan [2]. - Revenue from offline channels increased by 7%, while digital retail and ready-to-drink channels saw declines of 35.7% and 42.7%, respectively [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 840 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.80 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.08 yuan [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 22x, 19x, and 16x for the same years [3]. Market Positioning - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand positioning with a 3-5-8 product matrix and aims to strengthen its presence in the whiskey market with new product launches [2]. - The company has completed a share buyback of 4.67 million shares, indicating confidence in its growth prospects [2].