高通：享受端侧AI红利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.US) with a target price of $240.7, indicating a potential upside of 51$159.3 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY3Q24 performance aligns with market expectations, and the guidance for FY4Q24 is slightly above market forecasts. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of edge AI applications, particularly in smartphones, electric vehicles, and AI PCs [1][2]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of smartphone chips is expected to rise due to increased demand for high-end models in China. Additionally, the penetration of smart cockpit and autonomous driving technologies in electric vehicles is projected to contribute to new revenue streams, with automotive revenue expected to reach $4 billion by FY2026 [1][2]. - The next-generation Snapdragon 8 series chips will utilize Qualcomm's proprietary Oryon CPU platform, enhancing the company's autonomy in optimization [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY3Q24, Qualcomm reported revenues of$9.393 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, with a gross margin of 55.6% [6][7]. - The guidance for FY4Q24 anticipates revenue growth of 8% quarter-over-quarter and 15% year-over-year, with expectations of low single-digit growth in mobile business and low double-digit growth in IoT [1][6]. - The projected revenues for FY2024 are $38.687 billion, with a net profit of$9.502 billion, reflecting a 31% increase year-over-year [5][6]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a growth rate of 12% for FY2029-FY2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, with a WACC of 11.2%. The target price of $240.7 corresponds to a FY2024 PE of 28.4x [2][3].