浦银国际研究 首次覆盖 | 互联网行业 Innodata（INOD.US）：大模型时代 "卖铲人"，数据标注乘势而起 Innodata 深耕数据标注，持续受益于 AI 大模型对数据的需求增长，是 数据标注行业稀缺上市标的。公司客户聚焦美国大型科技企业，已覆 盖"美股七巨头"中的五家，巨头围绕 AI 基建的资本支出扩张或带来 增量。公司增长势头强劲，2024 年收入增长 96%，公司预计 2025 年 收入增长 40%+。我们首次覆盖 Innodata（INOD.US），给予"买入"评 级，目标价为 55 美元，潜在升幅 44%。 图表 1：盈利预测和财务指标 | 美元百万 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 87 | 170 | 240 | 281 | 307 | | 经营利润 | 0 | 24 | 33 | 46 | 58 | | 调整后净利润 | 3 | 33 | 29 | 40 | 49 | | 调整后目标 P/E (x) | | | 25.0 | 18.6 | 15 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 半导体行业 韦尔股份（603501.CH）：一季度利润 超市场预期，汽车 CIS 预计大幅成长 我们略微调整韦尔股份 2025、2026 年盈利预测，并上调目标价至人民 币 153.0 元，潜在升幅 19.1%，维持"买入"评级。 • 重申韦尔股份的"买入"评级：韦尔股份进入比较强势的产品周期， 多个板块推动 2025 年业务成长。首先，受益于比亚迪推动的智驾平权 带来的新能源车智驾渗透率大幅提升，随着车载 CIS 产能的进一步释 放，公司今年的汽车 CIS 将取得大幅成长。其次，公司布局的汽车模拟 类产品也同样放量成长，从而推动整个模拟业务板块的成长。第三， 公司手机 CIS 业务在下半年大量新品上市的节奏下，有望持续扩张高 端市场份额。第四，公司触控显示业务有望在今年取得盈亏平衡。最 后，从长期来看，公司多个业务板块潜在成长天花板已经打开，长期 增长预期较为乐观。目前，公司远期市盈率为 30.0x，低于历史均值， 估值具备上行空间，重申"买入"评级。 • 一季度业绩超市场预期：今年一季度，韦尔股份收入达到人民币 64.7 亿元，同比增长 15%，环比下降 5%，创历史一季度收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 38.7 [2][5]. Core Insights - The commercialization of CM310 is progressing well, with satisfactory sales performance in the first quarter. The company aims to expand its commercialization team from over 300 to 500 by the end of 2025, focusing on hospital access and negotiations for insurance coverage [3]. - The next-generation dual antibody CM512 is a key product in the pipeline, with Phase 1 data expected in Q3 2025. The company is also advancing multiple overseas clinical trials, with data readouts anticipated in 2026 [4]. - The company has set a sales guidance of RMB 500 million for the year, with significant contributions expected in the second half [3]. Summary by Sections Commercialization Progress - CM310's commercialization team is currently over 300 members, with plans to expand to 500 by the end of 2025. The team is focused on increasing hospital access and engaging with dermatologists and ENT specialists [3]. - The first quarter sales performance was satisfactory, with 29 provinces already having access to CM310. The pricing strategy positions CM310 competitively against existing treatments [3]. Pipeline Development - CM512 is positioned as a next-generation long-acting autoimmune drug, with global development progress ranking second only to a competitor. The company is focusing on autoimmune and respiratory indications [4]. - The company is also initiating overseas clinical trials for several molecules, with data expected as early as next year [4][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 354 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 2.249 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 46% [12][14]. - The company anticipates a net loss that narrows over the forecast period, with a projected loss of RMB 595 million by 2027 [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.CH) with a target price of RMB 69.2, representing a potential upside of 15.7% from the current price of RMB 59.8 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the weak performance in Q4 2024 was primarily due to the company's proactive inventory clearance, which has now returned to a healthier level. The sales performance in Q1 2025 is expected to be stable, and the company is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to a lower sales base in the second half of the year [1][5]. - The company is making progress in adjusting its product and channel structure, with expectations for more positive changes by 2026. The growth of brands like Lebao and regional products is helping to balance the product mix, which has been heavily reliant on the high-end product Uusu [1][5][11]. - The report highlights a shift in sales channels, with the proportion of on-premise sales decreasing from 55% in 2019 to 44% in 2024. The company plans to continue expanding its off-premise channels in 2025 through new product launches and marketing innovations [5][11]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the report forecasts a revenue of RMB 14,937 million, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,157 million, a 3.8% increase from 2024 [7][9]. - The average selling price is projected to remain under pressure due to weak market demand for high-end beers, despite a favorable outlook on raw material costs [5][11]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including a projected gross margin of 42.1% for 2025, with a stable cost structure anticipated due to declining barley prices [7][9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.65, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of HKD 5.87 [3][6]. Core Views - China Feihe's net profit for 2H24 fell short of market expectations due to short-term inventory clearance in functional nutrition products, including adult milk powder, which affected overall gross margin performance. However, the infant formula business showed revenue growth in line with expectations, and profit margins remained robust. Management is confident that revenue growth in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, with a slight increase in gross margin expected year-on-year [1][6]. - As a leader in the infant formula market, China Feihe is expected to continue driving industry consolidation. The company is actively investing in brand marketing and product technology development to enhance brand strength and meet consumer demands with higher-end products [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 19,532 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3%. In 2024, revenue is expected to increase by 6.2% to RMB 20,749 million, and further growth is projected for 2025 with an estimated revenue of RMB 21,817 million, reflecting a 5.1% increase [8][10]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3,390 million, down 31.4% year-on-year, but is expected to recover with a 5.3% increase in 2024 to RMB 3,570 million and a further 10.5% increase in 2025 to RMB 3,944 million [8][10]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings, with ultra-high-end products seeing a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, accounting for 69% of total revenue. The management anticipates continued growth in this segment, particularly for the Zhuorui brand, which has become the largest revenue contributor [6][11]. - A RMB 12 billion maternity subsidy plan is set to launch in April 2025, expected to have a limited negative impact on overall profit margins due to its structure and the company's marketing adjustments [6][11]. Dividend Policy - China Feihe plans to increase its dividend payout, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.3264 per share for 2024, raising the payout ratio to 76.1%. The management aims for a 10% annual increase in absolute dividend amounts over the next two years, assuming no major acquisitions [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Yangjie Technology, with a target price raised to RMB 55.7, indicating a potential upside of 20% [2][4]. Core Insights - Yangjie Technology is expected to continue its growth momentum into 2025, following a trend of improving revenue, gross margin, and net profit throughout 2024, outperforming the overall power industry [2][3]. - Despite a temporary adjustment in demand for new energy sources like photovoltaics, strong growth is anticipated in automotive electronics, consumer sectors, and overseas markets, supported by national policies and market recovery [2][3]. - The company plans to acquire Dongguan Better to enhance its product lineup in circuit protection components, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth in automotive electronics, AI servers, and international markets [2][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q4 2024, Yangjie Technology achieved revenue of RMB 1.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with a gross margin of 38.7%, marking a significant improvement [3][14]. - The company’s net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 330 million, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth and a 35% increase from the previous quarter [3][14]. - The financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue of RMB 7.01 billion, a 16% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB 1.23 billion, representing a 23% increase [5][15]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a 1.8% risk-free rate and a growth rate of 15% for 2030-2034, with a WACC of 11.5% [4]. - The current P/E ratio of 20.6x is considered attractive compared to historical averages [4][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [6] Core Views - BYD is expected to significantly increase its smart driving penetration rate, which will drive substantial growth in both sales and profits for new energy vehicles [2][6] - The target price for BYD shares is set at HKD 481.0, representing a potential upside of 18% for the Hong Kong stock and CNY 469.0 for the A-share, indicating a potential upside of 21% [4][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 602,315 million in 2023 to RMB 966,125 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [3][9] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30,041 million in 2023 to RMB 50,211 million in 2025, with a net profit growth rate of 25% in 2025 [3][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 20.2% in 2023 to 18.7% in 2025 [3][9] Segment Valuation - The valuation for BYD's new energy vehicle segment is estimated at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.0x, while the mobile and electronic business is valued at 21.0x, and other businesses at 10.0x, leading to a combined target price of HKD 481.0 and CNY 469.0 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 50, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 40 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 2024 performance slightly exceeded previous positive earnings forecasts, with revenue reaching RMB 4.052 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.8%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 1.07 billion, up 277.2% year-on-year [5][7]. - The company expects to achieve a revenue growth rate of over 35% in 2025, supported by a strong order backlog of USD 990 million, which is a 71.2% increase year-on-year [5][7]. - North America is identified as a key growth driver, with revenue contribution from this region increasing to 50% in 2024, up from 40% in 2023 [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: RMB 2,124 million - 2024: RMB 4,052 million (90.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 5,569 million (37.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 7,618 million (36.8% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 9,987 million (31.1% YoY growth) [7][9]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: RMB 284 million - 2024: RMB 1,070 million (277.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 1,302 million (21.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 1,739 million (33.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 2,356 million (35.5% YoY growth) [7][9]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin improved to 30.6% in 2024 from 26.3% in 2023, with adjusted net profit margin expected to remain stable [5][7]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - The company plans to invest approximately RMB 1.4 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, primarily for expanding production capacity in Singapore and Wuxi [5][7]. - WuXi AppTec aims to optimize operations to mitigate potential impacts on gross margins from new capacity coming online [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to $5.3 for NIO.US and HKD 41.1 for NIO-SW, representing potential upside of 17% and 15% respectively [2][4]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to launch nine new models this year, including the ET9 and L90, which will drive sales growth. The company is also focusing on improving dealership efficiency, with noticeable cost improvements anticipated starting in Q2 [9]. - The fourth quarter results were generally in line with expectations, with revenue of RMB 19.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a gross margin of 11.7% [12]. - The valuation of NIO is currently low, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.7x, indicating potential for upward movement as fundamentals improve [9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for NIO from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 55.6 billion - 2024: RMB 65.7 billion - 2025: RMB 80.3 billion - 2026: RMB 106.4 billion - 2027: RMB 141.0 billion - The revenue growth rates are projected at 13% for 2023, 18% for 2024, 22% for 2025, 33% for 2026, and 32% for 2027 [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 5.5% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2027, while net losses are projected to decrease from RMB 21.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 9.0 billion in 2027 [3][10]. Market Expectations - The current market price for NIO is $4.50, with a 52-week price range of $3.61 to $7.71. The total market capitalization is approximately $9.4 billion [4]. - For NIO-SW, the current price is HKD 35.90, with a 52-week range of HKD 28.6 to HKD 60.7, and a total market capitalization of around HKD 74.9 billion [5]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-sales ratio of 1.0x for automotive sales and 1.1x for other sales, leading to a target price of $5.3 for NIO and HKD 41.1 for NIO-SW [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, raising the target price to HKD 60.5, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HKD 52.05 [1][3][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth across all business segments by 2025, including acoustic, optical, precision sensing, structural components, sensors, and semiconductors. The short-term growth is supported by favorable policies in China for consumer electronics, with robust demand for components such as acoustic, optical, motors, metal frames, and cooling systems for mobile phones and laptops [1][11]. - The automotive acoustic business has begun to penetrate leading new energy vehicle manufacturers, indicating potential for significant growth. Additionally, the company is expanding into robotics, establishing a foundation for long-term growth [11]. - The company's financial performance in the second half of 2024 showed strong revenue growth of 44% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement to 22.5%. Operating profit and net profit also saw substantial increases, aligning with previous profit guidance [11][13]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,419 million in 2023 to RMB 39,767 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [2][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 740 million in 2023 to RMB 2,831 million in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2][12]. - The target price is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, applying different price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to various business segments, resulting in a target price of HKD 60.5 [11][17].