Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] Core Views - The target price for Li Auto is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W is set at HKD 132.0, also reflecting a potential upside of 17% [6][10] - The growth momentum for 2025 is expected to come from new model launches and expansion into overseas markets, alongside a strategic focus on AI investments [10][30] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123,851 million in 2023 to RMB 259,382 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in 2026 [4][11] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.9% by 2027, after a slight decline in the earlier years [4][11] - Net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB 11,704 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 17,543 million by 2027 [4][11] Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 44,274 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% from the previous year [12][10] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.3%, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year due to increased costs associated with new model launches [12][10] Market Expectations - The report highlights that the demand for new energy vehicles in China, particularly in the high-end segment, is expected to drive sales growth for Li Auto [30][35] - The company aims to enhance its AI capabilities and expand its retail network, with plans to open over 200 retail showrooms and 60 pop-up stores nationwide [10][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is raised to HKD 132.0, also indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][6] Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is supported by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for total delivery growth [10] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth in the next two years [10] - Li Auto's strategic emphasis on AI investments is aimed at ensuring long-term competitive advantages [10] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Auto from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123,851 million - 2024: RMB 144,460 million (growth of 17%) - 2025E: RMB 176,440 million (growth of 22%) - 2026E: RMB 230,493 million (growth of 31%) - 2027E: RMB 259,382 million (growth of 13%) [4][11] - Gross margin is projected to be 22.2% in 2023, declining slightly to 20.9% by 2027 [4][11] - Net profit (loss) projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 11,704 million - 2024: RMB 8,032 million (decline of 31%) - 2025E: RMB 8,724 million (growth of 9%) - 2026E: RMB 12,922 million (growth of 48%) - 2027E: RMB 17,543 million (growth of 36%) [4][11] Market Expectations - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44,274 million, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [12] - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% year-on-year but up 25% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average selling price of vehicles decreased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 268,709 [12] Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a target price of $32.2 for Li Auto (LI.US) based on a target P/E ratio of 26.7x for 2025 [10][18] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is set at HKD 132.0 [10][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company and lowers the target price to HKD 6.6, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current price of HKD 7.7 [2][3][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has shown a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 11% in the second half of 2024, reversing a declining trend since 2022. However, the adjusted net profit margin has narrowed, failing to continue the previous expansion trend [2][7]. - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve low double-digit revenue growth, but the potential for profit margin improvement appears limited due to significant expense reductions in 2024 and forward-looking investments in elder care and AI projects [2][7]. - The integration with Ping An Group is anticipated to enhance business synergies, but the extent of additional business growth from this consolidation remains uncertain [2][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 4,674 million - 2024: RMB 4,808 million (up 2.9% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 5,480 million (up 14.0% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 6,253 million (up 14.1% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 7,211 million (up 15.3% YoY) [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 81 million, and is expected to grow to RMB 169 million in 2025 [3][8]. Market Position - The company's current market capitalization stands at HKD 16,686 million, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 51 million over the past three months [3][7]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 3.2 to HKD 9.6, indicating significant volatility [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for 2025E is projected at 2.9, decreasing to 2.2 by 2027E [3][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 0.1, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.2 by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expecting a return to healthier inventory levels in the industry by April. The company aims for its 2025 revenue to remain stable year-on-year [8]. - There is potential for a slight improvement in operating profit margins in 2025 due to expected retail discount improvements and increased sales of new products. However, the growth of e-commerce may continue to impact channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 20,064 million - 2024: RMB 18,454 million - 2025: RMB 18,592 million - 2026: RMB 19,272 million - 2027: RMB 19,782 million - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 684 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2024 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][8]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4].

Inflation Data - In February, the core CPI inflation rate fell by 0.22 percentage points to 0.23%, below the market expectation of 0.3%[1] - Overall CPI growth rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 0.22%, also lower than market expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while the core CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%[1] Employment Trends - February non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000, slightly below the expected 160,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, higher than the market expectation of 4%[2] - Average hourly wage growth slowed in February, although year-on-year growth still increased[2] Core CPI Components - Core goods prices saw a slight decrease in February, with a growth rate of 0.22% compared to 0.28% in January[2] - Super core services CPI dropped significantly by 0.5 percentage points to 0.21%[2] - Transportation services inflation rate fell to -0.81% in February from 1.84% in January, indicating a substantial decline[2] Tariff Impact - The ongoing tariff war, particularly the 10% tariff on Chinese goods, has not yet significantly impacted U.S. commodity prices[2] - The tariffs imposed on goods from Canada and Mexico could potentially raise U.S. inflation by 0.62 percentage points if fully passed on to consumers[3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to pose risks to inflation forecasts[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite favorable employment and inflation data, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance without immediate rate cuts due to tariff uncertainties[5] - The Fed is projected to pause rate cuts in March and May, with potential cuts resuming in June[5] - The upcoming March Fed meeting is anticipated to reaffirm a "wait-and-see" approach amid economic uncertainties[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) and raises the target price to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted target P/E of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology achieved a revenue of RMB 720 million in Q4 2024, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, and became the first profitable manufacturer of automotive lidar [10][12]. - The company expects revenue to reach RMB 3.0-3.5 billion in 2025, with significant growth in both Non-GAAP and GAAP net profits [10][12]. - The domestic push for intelligent driving and successful overseas customer expansion are expected to drive continued growth in lidar shipments for passenger vehicles [10][12]. - The robotics application market is rapidly expanding, with expectations for nearly 200,000 lidar units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to the company's gross margin [10][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Hesai Technology from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,877 million - 2024: RMB 2,077 million - 2025E: RMB 3,058 million - 2026E: RMB 4,231 million - 2027E: RMB 6,434 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 56% for 2023, 11% for 2024, 47% for 2025, 38% for 2026, and 52% for 2027 [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to be 35.2% in 2023, increasing to 42.6% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a revenue growth rate of 30% from 2030 to 2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, resulting in a target price of $20.0 [10][14][15]. - The WACC is calculated at 16.8%, with a beta of 1.49 and an equity risk premium of 11.2% [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio of 0.9x suggests potential for valuation re-rating, making it attractive compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net losses are forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 134.6 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 155% year-on-year increase [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 52.4, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 41.5 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's sales guidance for 2025 is strong, with expectations to exceed 500,000 vehicles sold, driven by new models and mid-cycle updates [6]. - The company aims for a gross margin of over 10%, supported by its self-developed core automotive electronic components and the LEAP 3.5 architecture [6]. - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, aided by effective cost management and operational leverage [6]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for Leap Motor is 0.9x, suggesting potential for valuation re-rating compared to peers in the new energy vehicle sector [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 16,747 million in 2023 to RMB 57,812 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 80% [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][10]. - Net loss is forecasted to decrease from RMB 4,216 million in 2023 to a near breakeven of RMB 49 million in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated in 2026 [3][10]. Sales and Market Performance - Leap Motor's Q4 2024 revenue reached RMB 13,461 million, a year-on-year increase of 155%, with a gross margin of 13.3% [9]. - The company sold 120,863 vehicles in Q4 2024, marking a 118% increase compared to the same quarter in the previous year [9]. - The average selling price of vehicles increased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 107,099 [9]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.1x for automotive sales and 1.0x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of HKD 52.4 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue rebound with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in 4Q24, reaching RMB 347 billion, driven by strong performance in the electronics category due to national replacement policies [1][2]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue into 1Q25, supported by the expansion of subsidized categories [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for 4Q24 was 15.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while adjusted net profit rose by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 4Q24 was 3.3%, with retail and logistics operating profit margins improving slightly to 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively [2]. - The report forecasts a high single-digit profit margin for the full year, primarily relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.7 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.1 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.1 billion in FY25E [4][6]. - The report anticipates a stable profit margin of approximately 4.1% for the full year, with potential for improvement in the medium to long term [2][4]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is HKD 179, with a potential upside of 21% to the target price of HKD 217 [4][5]. - The report highlights a cash dividend of USD 1.5 billion, contributing to an annual shareholder return rate of over 5% [3].

Economic Goals - The economic growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilize growth[3] - The target for urban employment is set at over 12 million new jobs, with an unemployment rate target of around 5.5%, both unchanged from last year[7] - To achieve the employment target, a minimum economic growth rate of 4.8% is required, based on historical data indicating that 1% GDP growth generates approximately 2.512 million new jobs[7] Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The CPI inflation target has been lowered to around 2%, marking the first time it is set below 3%[7] - The fiscal deficit target is set at around 4% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic years, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year[13] - Local government special bond quotas have increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, up from 3.9 trillion yuan last year, indicating a more aggressive fiscal stance[13] Policy Stimulus and Investment - The government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, doubling last year's issuance[14] - Central budget investment has increased by 35 billion yuan to 735 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing service sector investment[15] - The overall expansion of government debt is projected to increase by 2.9 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 2% of GDP, significantly higher than the 0.9% expansion in 2024[14] Monetary Policy and Market Support - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with expectations of interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points and reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50-100 basis points throughout the year[19] - The report emphasizes the need for structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as real estate, technology innovation, and consumption[19] Reform Directions - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, particularly in AI and emerging industries, as key areas for reform[21] - It also stresses the need for measures to mitigate local government debt risks and enhance investment space[20] - The government aims to expand high-level openness and stabilize foreign trade and investment, despite a challenging external environment[22]