LI AUTO(02015) 浦银国际证券·2025-03-17 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) [3][10] Core Views - The target price for Li Auto is raised to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][5] - The target price for Li Auto-W is set at HKD 132.0, also reflecting a potential upside of 17% [6][10] - The growth momentum for 2025 is expected to come from new model launches and expansion into overseas markets, alongside a strategic focus on AI investments [10][30] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123,851 million in 2023 to RMB 259,382 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in 2026 [4][11] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.9% by 2027, after a slight decline in the earlier years [4][11] - Net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB 11,704 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 17,543 million by 2027 [4][11] Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 44,274 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of RMB 3,523 million, down 38% from the previous year [12][10] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 20.3%, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year due to increased costs associated with new model launches [12][10] Market Expectations - The report highlights that the demand for new energy vehicles in China, particularly in the high-end segment, is expected to drive sales growth for Li Auto [30][35] - The company aims to enhance its AI capabilities and expand its retail network, with plans to open over 200 retail showrooms and 60 pop-up stores nationwide [10][30]