Hesai-禾赛：4Q24率先盈利，指引2025年强劲增长-20250312

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) and raises the target price to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted target P/E of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology achieved a revenue of RMB 720 million in Q4 2024, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, and became the first profitable manufacturer of automotive lidar [10][12]. - The company expects revenue to reach RMB 3.0-3.5 billion in 2025, with significant growth in both Non-GAAP and GAAP net profits [10][12]. - The domestic push for intelligent driving and successful overseas customer expansion are expected to drive continued growth in lidar shipments for passenger vehicles [10][12]. - The robotics application market is rapidly expanding, with expectations for nearly 200,000 lidar units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to the company's gross margin [10][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Hesai Technology from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,877 million - 2024: RMB 2,077 million - 2025E: RMB 3,058 million - 2026E: RMB 4,231 million - 2027E: RMB 6,434 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 56% for 2023, 11% for 2024, 47% for 2025, 38% for 2026, and 52% for 2027 [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to be 35.2% in 2023, increasing to 42.6% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a revenue growth rate of 30% from 2030 to 2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, resulting in a target price of$ 20.0 [10][14][15]. - The WACC is calculated at 16.8%, with a beta of 1.49 and an equity risk premium of 11.2% [14][15].