Ronbay Technology(688005) 国泰君安·2024-08-06 11:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.88 CNY [10][15]. Core Views - The company continues to lead the global market in ternary cathode shipments, with a second-quarter performance showing sequential improvement. The overseas production capacity for ternary products and the accelerated development of new products such as manganese iron lithium and sodium-ion cathodes are expected to drive ongoing revenue growth [2][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.888 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 46.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10 million CNY, down 97.3% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 3.196 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 29.4%, and a net profit of 48 million CNY, down 30.5% year-on-year [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 30.123 billion CNY, which decreased to 22.657 billion CNY in 2023, and is projected to further decline to 15.045 billion CNY in 2024, before recovering to 18.040 billion CNY in 2025 and 18.390 billion CNY in 2026 [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.353 billion CNY in 2022, dropping to 581 million CNY in 2023, and is expected to decline further to 279 million CNY in 2024, before increasing to 533 million CNY in 2025 and 740 million CNY in 2026 [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58 CNY in 2024, 1.10 CNY in 2025, and 1.53 CNY in 2026 [10][11]. Market Position - The company maintained a leading market share in ternary cathodes, with a sales volume of 54,900 tons in the first half of 2024, an increase of 18.17% year-on-year. The high-nickel product sales reached 52,700 tons, up 16.82% year-on-year, capturing a domestic market share of 39% and a global market share of 20% [10]. - The proportion of sales to overseas customers increased significantly to 17%, up 16 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an improvement in customer structure [10]. Strategic Developments - The company has made strategic investments in global expansion, manganese iron lithium, and sodium-ion cathodes, which are expected to contribute to future growth. The first phase of the 20,000 tons/year production line in South Korea has been completed and is set to begin large-scale supply in the third quarter [10]. - The company has also achieved significant growth in manganese iron lithium shipments, with 2,400 tons shipped in the first half of 2024, a 166% increase year-on-year [10].