| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2025-04-28 09:00——2025-04-29 15:00） 3 | | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《美债的"近忧"和"远虑"》2025-04-28 3 | |  | 海外策略研究：《上周发达市场表现相对更优》2025-04-28 3 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《钢铁行业周报数据库 20250427》2025-04-29 4 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：核电设备《10 台核电新机组又获批，产业链发展长期可持续》2025-04-29 5 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：农业《业绩表现亮眼，国产品牌势头强劲》2025-04-29 6 | |  | 行业双周报：《五一机票预售加快，美线出口货量缩减》2025-04-29 7 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《盈利环比回升，仍看好板块低位布局机会》2025-04-29 8 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：保险《允许调整最低保证利率，利好防范"利差损"》2025-04-29 8 | |  | 行业双周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and thermal coal, and gives corresponding trend judgments [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 713.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan/ton or 0.99%. The open - interest was 535,095 lots, an increase of 23,198 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices generally rose slightly, and some basis and spreads changed slightly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Judgment**: Both are fluctuating at low levels [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2505, the closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or - 0.10%. For hot - rolled coil HC2505, the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or - 0.37%. Spot prices in most regions declined slightly, and basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: On April 11, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. The US increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and China also adjusted tariffs on US imports [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Ferrosilicon has a weak - oscillating trend due to the game between long and short forces. Silicomanganese has a weak - oscillating trend as overseas miners' quotes decline [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of silicomanganese decreased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **Industry News**: On April 15, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices were reported, and multiple overseas miners lowered their May quotes [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Coke's first - round price increase has been implemented, with wide - range oscillations. Coking coal has wide - range oscillations [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal increased. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Price and Position Information**: Northern port coking coal quotes and April 15 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On April 15, positions of coking coal and coke contracts changed [13][14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Thermal Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Demand is improving, and prices are testing for an increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2505 contract had no trading yesterday, with previous opening, high, low, and closing prices provided. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic production - area quotes were given, and positions did not change on April 15 [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [18].

Group 1 - The AIDC industry is booming, and a research activity on Weichai Power, a core company in the AIDC industry chain, has been arranged [2] - The research will take place in Weifang on April 17th (Thursday), with a communication session with the company's secretary from 15:00 to 16:00 [2] - The initiator of the research activity is Ren Ranwei, with the contact number 15910988621 [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the companies mentioned [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Lian De Equipment (联得装备) is a leader in panel equipment with a promising outlook for significant order growth [2]. - Zhaowei Electromechanical (兆威机电) is noted for its leadership in micro transmission and its strategic positioning in the robotics sector, particularly in dexterous hands [2]. Company Summaries - **Lian De Equipment (联得装备)**: Recognized for its leading position in panel equipment, the company is expected to experience a substantial increase in orders [2]. - **Zhaowei Electromechanical (兆威机电)**: The company is distinguished by its advancements in micro transmission technology and its focus on developing robotic dexterous hands, indicating a strong growth potential in the robotics market [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Lian De Equipment (联得装备) is a leader in panel equipment with a promising outlook for high order growth [2]. - Zhaowei Electromechanical (兆威机电) is noted for its leadership in micro transmission and its strategic layout in robotic dexterous hands [2]. Company Summaries - Lian De Equipment (联得装备) is positioned as a leading player in the panel equipment sector, with expectations for significant order increases [2]. - Zhaowei Electromechanical (兆威机电) is recognized for its advancements in micro transmission technology and its focus on developing robotic dexterous hands, indicating a strong future growth potential [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The IP toy market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected market size of 123.3 billion yuan by 2028, driven by strong consumer interest across all age groups [4][15] - The penetration rates of IP toys in the global and Chinese toy markets reached 67.4% and 64.4% in 2023, respectively, and are expected to rise to 73.8% and 74.5% by 2028 [14][18] - The report highlights the importance of companies that focus on IP, product design, and channel advantages, recommending firms like Pop Mart and Shanghai Film [4][15] Summary by Sections 1. IP Toys: Continuous Penetration and Market Growth - The global toy market is projected to grow at a stable rate of 5%, with China's market accounting for approximately 1/7 of the total [9] - The domestic IP toy market is expected to grow from 67.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 123.3 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a strong preference for IP-enhanced products [14][15] 2. Generational Differences: Functionality and Pricing - Children's toys focus on educational and social attributes, with prices typically ranging from 2 to 50 yuan [30] - Teenagers prefer products that showcase individuality, such as badges and standees, with prices between 12 to 50 yuan [30] - Young adults prioritize emotional value, leading to a surge in demand for plush toys, with prices ranging from 49 to over 1000 yuan [30][46] 3. Company Analysis: Domestic Brands Surpassing Overseas Leaders - Bandai and LEGO are recognized as leaders in the mid-to-high-end building toy market, having established a strong presence in China since 2015 [59] - Bluku has emerged as a cost-effective player in the building toy segment, focusing on character-based products with a price range of 9.9 to 399 yuan [69][75] - Pop Mart's plush toy category has seen explosive growth, with revenues reaching 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, marking a nearly 13-fold increase [50][55] - Shanghai Film effectively combines traditional animation IP with innovative methods, expanding its merchandise categories [60] - Aofei Entertainment is diversifying its product offerings to target both family and young adult markets, with significant revenue growth in its "goods" product line [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi Biologics (2269) [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is actively advancing its "Winning Molecules" strategy, with significant growth in preclinical business and a continuous increase in new projects. The divestment of the Ireland vaccine plant optimizes asset allocation, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 18.675 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a 9.6% increase, while net profit was 3.356 billion RMB, down 1.3%. Adjusted net profit was 5.4 billion RMB, up 9.0% [8]. - The report highlights a strong order and project trend, with 151 new projects signed in 2024, over half of which are from the U.S. The company expects to complete 24 PPQ projects in 2025, a 50% increase from 2024 [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit projections for WuXi Biologics are as follows (in million RMB): - 2022A: Revenue 15,287, Net Profit 4,420 - 2023A: Revenue 17,051, Net Profit 3,400 - 2024A: Revenue 18,675, Net Profit 3,356 - 2025E: Revenue 21,197, Net Profit 4,019 - 2026E: Revenue 24,329, Net Profit 4,706 - 2027E: Revenue 28,278, Net Profit 5,621 - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 52.51 in 2022 to 18.21 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [7][8].

Market Strategy - The A-share strategy for April includes key stocks across various sectors, such as Tencent Holdings and Alibaba in technology, and Jianghuai Automobile in automotive[5] - The overall market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to a lack of strong macroeconomic policy progress and increased uncertainty from upcoming earnings reports[6] Economic Outlook - The forecast for 2024 A-share earnings growth is -1.5%, with Q1 2025 expected at -2.1%, indicating a challenging earnings environment[7] - Real estate sales are declining, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while durable goods consumption continues to grow, with car sales up 34% year-on-year due to subsidy policies[14][16] Sector Performance - The investment banking and brokerage sector saw a 14.76% year-on-year increase in net profit for 21 listed brokerages, totaling CNY 113.86 billion[41] - The chemical industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with liquid argon prices rising significantly, while steel and glass prices remain under pressure[36] Consumer Trends - The demand for personal care and beauty products is shifting towards innovation, with traditional brands adapting to new consumer preferences[19][20] - The carbon market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with a 351% rise in transactions, indicating growing interest in carbon credits[32] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact market stability[9][18]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights that domestic innovative drugs are entering a harvest period, with the optimization of centralized procurement rules expected to improve the pharmaceutical sector's margins while ensuring profit margins for pharmaceutical companies and downstream retail pharmacies, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [1][4][5] - The report recommends several companies in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors, including BeiGene, Honor Medicine, and 3SBio, among others, as potential investment opportunities [3][4] - The report notes that in 2024, 39 new drugs are expected to be approved in China, accounting for nearly 40% of the global total, with domestic companies holding a 24% share of the global pipeline for first-in-class new drugs [4][5] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Dongfeng Motor Group is projected to turn a profit in 2024, with significant improvements in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments, and a strategic transformation that is beginning to yield results [2][6][7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 157.55 billion, CNY 198 billion, and CNY 237.18 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of CNY 2.654 billion, CNY 4.874 billion, and CNY 6.733 billion respectively [6][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing restructuring within state-owned enterprises, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and operational efficiency [7] Group 3: New Energy Industry - Zhuhai Guanyu is expected to see its performance align with expectations in 2024, with gradual reductions in losses from its power business and an increase in sales volume and profit from its AI-related consumer business [1][9] - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of CNY 0.78 in 2025 and CNY 1.02 in 2026, with a target price adjustment to CNY 19.54 based on a 25.05x PE ratio [9][12] - The report indicates that the global demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow, driven by the AI upgrade cycle, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend [12][13] Group 4: Rare Earth Industry - Guangsheng Nonferrous is expected to recover from losses in 2024 due to the significant depreciation of rare earth prices, with a forecasted EPS of CNY 0.71 for 2025 and CNY 1.40 for 2026, and a target price of CNY 42.15 based on a 30x valuation [2][14][15] - The report notes that the company’s production capacity is set to increase with the new Fengzuo mining project, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [15][16] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in rare earth prices, driven by domestic demand for new energy vehicles and other applications, with a projected growth rate of 33% for neodymium-iron-boron demand in 2025 [16] Group 5: Permanent Magnet Industry - Jinli Permanent Magnet is expected to see a recovery in performance, with an EPS forecast of CNY 0.52 for 2025 and CNY 0.71 for 2026, and a target price adjustment to CNY 24.90 based on a 35x PE ratio [2][18][19] - The company is planning to expand its production capacity by 20,000 tons, which is expected to solidify its position as a leader in the magnetic materials industry [19] - The report highlights the company's strategic investments in humanoid robotics, which may open up new growth avenues [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 33.90 CNY, while the current price is 28.56 CNY [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive trend in new orders and an acceleration in CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls) business, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook [3][12]. - The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in 2024, particularly in laboratory services and CMC [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 12.276 billion CNY, reflecting a 6.4% increase from 2023, while net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.793 billion CNY, up 12.0% [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.98 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.10 CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.43 CNY [12]. - The company’s revenue from laboratory services is expected to be 7.05 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of 44.9% [12]. Order Trends and Client Structure - The report notes a continued improvement in new order trends, with a 35% increase in CMC new orders and a 15% increase in laboratory services new orders [12]. - The client structure is improving, with revenue from the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies growing by 26.9%, accounting for 18% of total revenue [12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 37% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index by 28% [10]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at 50.785 billion CNY, with a total share count of 1.778 billion shares [6].