温氏股份：月畜禽出栏同比增长，充分受益行业景气

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a reasonable value set at 26.73 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 17 times for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - In July, the company experienced a steady year-on-year growth in pig sales, with an estimated profit of approximately 600 CNY per pig. The company sold 2.3233 million pigs in July, a decrease of 0.39% month-on-month but an increase of 9.02% year-on-year, generating revenue of 5.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51.19% [1][2]. - The average selling price for pigs was 18.95 CNY per kilogram, with an average weight of 121.36 kilograms, reflecting a 1.5% decrease month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to July, the company sold 16.7 million pigs, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.98% [1][2]. - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs, with comprehensive breeding costs dropping to 14.2 CNY per kilogram as of May. The number of breeding sows as of the end of April was 1.57 million, an increase of 20,000 from March [1][2]. - Chicken sales also saw a month-on-month increase in July, with the company selling 9.7 million chickens, a 5.2% increase from the previous month and a 2.77% increase year-on-year, generating revenue of 2.627 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1][2]. - The estimated profit per chicken exceeded 2 CNY, with cumulative chicken sales from January to July totaling 645 million, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report suggests that breeding profits may exceed expectations due to a combination of rising pig prices and declining costs, with the industry benefiting from a widening "scissors gap" between rising prices and falling costs [1][2]. - The forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.57, 1.91, and 2.55 CNY per share, respectively [1][2].