1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 美国 1 月通胀相对温和 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-3800357 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

[Table_Page] 固定收益|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 2026 年票息策略的几条底线思维 债市信用挖掘系列之一 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 市场预期"合久必分"，当前单边做多预期走向分歧，震荡市概率更高， 以票息策略为主必然占优。票息策略最大风险来自持仓违约，票息策 略占优的逻辑基础是债市维持震荡，因此我们重点论证两个方向： 其一，信用债违约风险的再审视：1.历史违约中民企占比偏高且房地产 行业风险集中，国企与银行超预期风险偶有发生，但上述因子在当前存 量债市已发生变化。2.当下产业债以国企为压舱石，"永煤"类事件发 生概率极低，风险行业完成深度筑底；城投债标债刚兑预期牢固，非标 违约呈现弱地区+低层级+负增速；央行定调金融体系稳健，历史风险 显著出清，多因素共同指向整体信用风险可控。3.公募债基形成国有企 业+逆周期行业+优质区域+头部机构的持仓偏好，风险暴露度偏低，基 于债市低信用风险预期，仍具备进一步下沉挖掘收益的空间。 其二，为什么 2026 年大概率震荡？1.利空基础不足：经济基本面弱复 苏与货币政策宽松取向未发生 ...

[Table_Page] 固定收益|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 长端利率变盘时点渐近 技术看债系列之一 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]杜渐 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260526020003 | | 010-59136690 | | | dujian@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | SFC CE No. BQN213 | | | 021-38003588 | | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | 请注意，杜渐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 18 [Table_Contacts] 972918116公共联系人2026-02-13 21:08:59 ⚫ 25 年以来十债振幅收窄，属于典型的楔形整理形态；而三十年国债的 趋势性下跌周期始于 25 年 7 月反内卷政策出台 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of $102.38 and a fair value of $127.17 [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Disney has built a robust business model through a combination of content production, diverse distribution channels, and offline experiences, creating a closed-loop commercial ecosystem [7]. - Disney's strategy has shifted from focusing solely on growth to enhancing quality and profitability, particularly in its D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) segment, which has seen significant investment despite lower profit margins compared to traditional television [7]. - The experience business, including theme parks and cruise lines, is highlighted as a unique competitive advantage, contributing significantly to revenue and operating profit [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach $102.1 billion in fiscal year 2026, with a growth rate of 8%, and $107.3 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a growth rate of 5% [4]. - Net income is expected to be $10.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, reflecting a -14% change, and $11.9 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a 10% increase [4]. - The report anticipates an EPS of $5.95 for fiscal year 2026 and $6.57 for fiscal year 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 15x [4]. Business Segments - Disney's primary business segments include entertainment (cable networks, D2C streaming, and content production), sports (primarily ESPN), and experiences (theme parks, resorts, and cruise lines) [26][28]. - The entertainment segment remains the largest revenue contributor, while the experience segment is crucial for profit, achieving a profit margin of 28% compared to 11% for entertainment and 16% for sports [28]. Historical Context - Disney's evolution is marked by three key phases: the early animation and theme park development, the revival under Michael Eisner with a focus on animation and cable television, and the recent era of acquisitions and streaming service expansion under Bob Iger [18][22][23]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions like Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, enhancing its IP portfolio and overall market position [23][43].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of governance improvement and overseas expansion for leading companies in the home appliance industry, particularly in the white goods sector [2][11]. Group 1: White Goods - The governance improvements in leading white goods companies are expected to enhance market confidence in sustainable growth, which can lead to a higher valuation [16]. - Midea Group has experienced a significant valuation increase from a PE of 8x to over 20x due to governance reforms and market conditions, despite recent performance challenges [17]. - Haier Smart Home's privatization has led to a notable stock price increase, with a 59% rise following the announcement of its restructuring plan [22][23]. Group 2: Black Goods - Japanese brands like Sony and Samsung are facing significant challenges, with Sony's ET&S department reporting an 8.2% decline in revenue and a 22.6% drop in operating profit [47][49]. - Chinese brands are expected to continue gaining market share globally, with TCL Electronics forming a joint venture with Sony to enhance their market presence [48]. - The Mini LED segment is seeing increased penetration, with a 32.25% online market share, indicating a positive trend for domestic competition [50][56]. Group 3: Small Appliances - The robotic vacuum cleaner market has shown a 10% year-on-year increase in online sales, driven by a low base effect from the previous year and seasonal factors [7]. - The competitive landscape in the small appliance sector is improving, with leading brands like Ecovacs and Roborock increasing their market shares [7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in white goods companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their stable growth and high dividend yields [7]. - For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are highlighted as beneficiaries of product iteration and improved domestic competition [7]. - In the cleaning appliance sector, Ecovacs and Roborock are expected to see profit margin recovery in 2026, making them attractive investment options [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese liquor market, particularly in Chengdu, is showing signs of recovery as the Spring Festival approaches, with increased sales velocity for major brands like Guojiao and Wuliangye [6][8]. - The seasoning market is also experiencing improved sales, with brands like Qianhe and Haitian gaining market share, and promotional activities increasing in supermarkets [11][12]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector in 2026, with recommendations for key stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Chengdu Liquor Market Tracking - Sales velocity for Wuliangye and Guojiao has accelerated as the Spring Festival approaches, with Wuliangye's current batch price at 790 CNY per bottle and Guojiao at 850 CNY per bottle [7][9]. - Feedback from distributors indicates that inventory levels are healthy, with a focus on maintaining good stock levels to avoid excess [8][9]. Chengdu Seasoning Market Tracking - Soy sauce sales have improved year-on-year, with Qianhe and Haitian leading in market share, and promotional activities in supermarkets have increased significantly [11][12]. - The overall health of inventory levels in the seasoning market is noted, with major brands maintaining shorter inventory ages, indicating strong sales performance [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, anticipating a new growth cycle starting in 2026 [2][4]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies like Anjuke Foods and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as having potential for outperforming the market due to new products and channels [2][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The dairy processing industry in China is entering a new development stage, driven by low raw milk prices, increasing demand for processed dairy products, and supportive government policies [25][41][46] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential in the market, particularly for processed dairy products like cheese and butter [31][34][40] - The global market for cheese is projected to reach nearly $200 billion by 2025, with significant growth expected in butter and cream markets as well [52][56][59] Summary by Sections 1. Development of Dairy Processing in China - Dairy processing involves complex processes to convert raw milk into high-value products, with a focus on separating and purifying effective components [15] - The current structure of dairy consumption in China is heavily skewed towards liquid milk, with processed products like cheese and butter having a much lower market share compared to developed countries [25][30] 2. Global Perspective on Dairy Products - The market for basic processed dairy products, such as butter, cream, and cheese, is large, and Chinese companies should focus on freshness and customization to differentiate themselves [47][48] - The global cheese market is expected to grow significantly, with Europe being the largest consumer market, driven by demand in the food service sector [52][53] 3. Domestic Expansion of Dairy Processing - Over 20 dairy companies are currently expanding or building new processing lines, with an expected increase in raw milk processing capacity of over 300,000 tons from 2026 to 2027 [25] - The long-term competition in the dairy processing industry will hinge on resource allocation, technology, and distribution channels, with leading companies likely to maintain a competitive edge [25][46] 4. Government Support and Market Trends - The Chinese government is actively promoting the development of dairy processing, with policies aimed at increasing the consumption of processed dairy products [41][45] - The trend towards higher consumption of processed dairy products aligns with changing consumer habits, particularly among younger generations [40][41]

[Table_Page] 深度分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业·程序化广告专题 从头部平台发展路径理解程序化广告，关注数据与 AI 算法的飞轮 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-13 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]旷实 SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 SFC CE No. BNV294 010-59136610 kuangshi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 廖志国 SAC 执证号：S0260525060001 021-38003665 liaozhiguo@gf.com.cn 分析师： 罗悦纯 -10% 5% 20% 34% 49% 64% 01/25 04/25 06/25 08/25 11/25 01/26 传媒 沪深300 SAC 执证号：S0260524120001 021-38003562 luoyuechun@gf.com.cn 请注意，廖 ...