[Table_Page] 季报点评|国有大型银行Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 工商银行(601398.SH/01398.HK) 存贷同比多增，中收降幅收窄 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Invest] 公司评级 | 买入-A/买入-H | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 7.27 元/5.48 港元 | | 合理价值 | 7.29 元/5.50 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入/买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-04-30 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -12% 0% 13% 25% 38% 50% 04/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 02/25 04/25 工商银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 许洁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518080004 | | SFC CE No. BNU965 | | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 10.13 CNY and a reasonable value of 11.46 CNY [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in net interest margin and an improvement in asset quality indicators, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [3][8]. - The company's Q1 2025 revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.2%, 7.9%, and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively [8][10]. - Key drivers of performance include significant growth in both interest-earning assets and loans, with year-on-year increases of 23.9% and 18.8%, respectively [8][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue growth was 6.2%, with a decrease of 2.56 percentage points compared to the previous year [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.2%, reflecting a decline of 2.60 percentage points from the previous year [10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 16.50%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 0.86%, down 3 basis points from the beginning of the year [8][10]. - The provision coverage ratio stood at 344%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the start of the year, indicating sufficient provisions against potential loan losses [8][10]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was estimated at 1.80%, up 12 basis points from Q4 2024 [8][10]. - The company has effectively managed its pricing strategies, leading to a decrease in the cost of liabilities by 19 basis points [8][10]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 6.55% and 6.94% for the years 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.19 CNY and 2.35 CNY [8][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 4.62X for 2025 and 4.31X for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a current price of 9.98 CNY and a fair value of 11.52 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in aerospace demand, with a strong positioning in the special cable sector and significant profit elasticity due to product structure optimization [1][36]. - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of 0-50% and a net profit growth of 0-100% in 2025 compared to 2024 [7][8]. - The aerospace and fusion equipment cable revenue has shown a significant improvement, with a 232.07% increase in early 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [7][8]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 34.70 billion CNY in 2023 to 74.76 billion CNY by 2027, with annual growth rates of 15.1%, 19.8%, 24.4%, 21.6%, and 18.8% respectively [2][40]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to increase from 161 million CNY in 2023 to 560 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from 87 million CNY in 2023 to 336 million CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of -21.2%, 26.1%, 61.2%, 42.2%, and 34.3% [2][40]. Business Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of special cables, with a strong focus on aerospace, data communication, and other high-end applications [10][25]. - It has established a competitive advantage in the special cable market, particularly in aerospace and fusion equipment, with over 70 years of technical experience [7][36]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top 50 in the "China Cable Industry 100" and has consistently been rated among the "Top Ten Brands of Special Cables" in China [10][25]. Market Opportunities - The aerospace and fusion equipment sector is expected to see increased demand due to modernization efforts in military and defense spending, with projections indicating a market demand exceeding 10 billion CNY by 2027 [28]. - The company is also actively expanding into emerging markets such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and robotics, which are anticipated to drive future growth [36][31]. - The electric power sector is poised for growth due to infrastructure upgrades and increased capital expenditures, with significant investments planned by state-owned enterprises [30][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 57.45 CNY and a fair value of 66.13 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is currently in a strategic investment phase focusing on multi-platform development and AI integration, awaiting a performance turning point [1][7]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 2.8%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 163 million CNY, marking a shift from profit to loss [8][9]. - The company is experiencing high costs and goodwill impairment, primarily due to increased operating costs, R&D, and sales expenses, alongside a significant rise in server costs related to AI functionality development [7][9]. - The AI commercialization process is showing initial success, with over 500 million AI server calls and a 100% year-over-year increase in AI native application revenue, reaching approximately 67 million CNY [10][11]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing multi-platform advancements and AI product commercialization, with expectations of a performance turnaround as mobile product engagement and B2B market orders increase [11][27]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1.60 billion CNY, 1.81 billion CNY, and 2.10 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 11.0%, 13.3%, and 16.1% [2][27]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 61 million CNY, 129 million CNY, and 206 million CNY over the same period, with growth rates of 137.2%, 111.9%, and 59.9% [2][27]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the domestic digital creative sector and suggests a valuation of 8X PS for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 66.13 CNY per share [27].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The proportion of A-share media industry holdings by public funds has increased, with a total market value of 183.82 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 40.66% [4][19] - The gaming, internet, cinema, and animation sectors have seen an increase in fund allocation, while advertising, publishing, and education sectors have been reduced [4][28] - The concentration of A-share media holdings has increased, with the top five stocks accounting for 69.79% of the total media industry holdings [4][43] - Major internet companies in the Hong Kong market have received increased allocations, while some other leading internet platforms have seen reductions [4] Summary by Sections A-share Media Industry Fund Holdings - The proportion of public fund holdings in the A-share media sector rose to 1.44% in Q1 2025, up from 0.92% in Q4 2024, an increase of 0.52 percentage points [4][13] - The total market value of A-share media holdings by public funds reached 183.82 billion yuan, accounting for 1.11% of the total fund holdings, with a slight decrease in underweight ratio from 0.97% to 0.73% compared to Q4 2024 [4][19][17] Sector Allocation Changes - The gaming sector saw a significant increase in fund allocation, rising by 6.47 percentage points to 38.57% [4][28] - The advertising sector's allocation decreased by 0.23 percentage points to 31.23%, while the publishing sector's allocation fell by 3.14 percentage points to 11.02% [4][28] Concentration of Holdings - The top five stocks in the A-share media sector are Focus Media, Kaixin Network, Mango Super Media, Giant Network, and Perfect World, with a combined market value of 128.28 billion yuan, representing a 3.78 percentage point increase in concentration [4][43] Hong Kong Internet Sector Holdings - Major internet companies such as Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart have received increased allocations, while others like Reading Group and Meituan have seen reductions [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has decreased to a historical low, with a current holding ratio of approximately 1.21%, down 0.11 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][14] - There is a counter-trend increase in the allocation to the feed sector, while holdings in the breeding and planting sectors continue to decline [18] - Public funds are concentrated in leading companies within the livestock breeding industry and related pet food companies [19] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Allocation - The sector allocation ratio has decreased by 0.1 percentage points, remaining at a low allocation level [14] - The standard allocation ratio for the sector is approximately 1.41%, indicating a current holding ratio that is 0.2 percentage points lower than the standard [14] 2. Feed Sector Allocation - In Q1 2025, public funds increased their allocation to the feed sector, which now stands at 0.7%, up 0.04 percentage points [18] - The breeding sector's allocation decreased to 0.34%, down 0.12 percentage points, while the planting sector's allocation fell to 0.14%, down 0.04 percentage points [18] 3. Concentration of Public Fund Holdings - Major public fund holdings are concentrated in leading companies in the livestock breeding chain and related sectors [19] - Key stocks and their respective holding ratios include: - Haida Group: 0.51% (+0.07 percentage points) - Muyuan Foods: 0.17% (-0.07 percentage points) - Guibao Pet: 0.08% (unchanged) - Zhongchong: 0.08% (+0.07 percentage points) - Wens Foodstuff: 0.06% (-0.01 percentage points) [19] 4. Investment Recommendations - For the pig industry, the expectation for pig prices in 2025 is relatively conservative, with a focus on production efficiency and market demand [35] - Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff and Muyuan Foods, with attention to New Hope and Zhengbang Technology for potential operational reversals [35] - In the broiler chicken sector, companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological are expected to benefit from a recovery in the industry [35] - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with Haida Group recommended for its overseas expansion potential [35] - In the planting sector, companies like Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry are suggested for investment [35] - For the pet sector, focus on domestic leading brands such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in store openings, indicating strong growth potential and profit elasticity in the future [7][9] - The revenue for 2024 reached 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248%, with a net profit of 290 million yuan, up 454% year-on-year [9][14] - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory with projected revenues of 51.59 billion yuan, 59.27 billion yuan, and 62.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][52] Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan, with the snack retail and edible fungus businesses contributing 31.79 billion yuan and 540 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 263% and 1% [9][14] - The total number of snack retail stores reached 14,196, with a net increase of 9,470 stores, while the average revenue per store was 3.36 million yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year [9][14] Profit Summary - The company reported a net profit of 290 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 0.9% [9][24] - The snack retail business generated a net profit of 860 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 2.6% [9][24] - The company’s gross margin, selling expense ratio, and management expense ratio were 10.8%, 4.4%, and 3.0% respectively, showing improvements in cost management [9][24] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 748 million yuan, 1.09 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 22, and 20 [9][52] - The report maintains a target price of 145.47 yuan per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025, supporting the "Buy" rating [9][52][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 7.39 CNY and a fair value of 7.83 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with significant improvements in quality and efficiency [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 2.82 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.83 billion CNY, indicating a return to profitability [7][13]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and restoring profitability, with a gross margin of 61.04% in 2024, up 0.85 percentage points from 2023 [21][23]. - The company is strengthening its position in emerging security fields, leveraging AI and self-controlled technologies to enhance its product offerings [20][22]. Financial Performance Summary - **2023A**: Revenue of 3.12 billion CNY, net profit of -0.37 billion CNY - **2024A**: Revenue of 2.82 billion CNY, net profit of 0.83 billion CNY - **2025E**: Revenue of 2.91 billion CNY, net profit of 0.12 billion CNY - **2026E**: Revenue of 3.10 billion CNY, net profit of 0.17 billion CNY - **2027E**: Revenue of 3.40 billion CNY, net profit of 0.23 billion CNY [2][31]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company expects revenues to gradually recover, with projections of 2.60 billion CNY, 2.73 billion CNY, and 2.95 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [26][29]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 63.5%, 64.1%, and 64.7% over the same period [26][31]. Cost Management - The company has effectively reduced total expenses by 10.73% in 2024, with significant decreases in management and R&D expenses [23][33]. - The management expenses decreased by 40.95% in 2024, primarily due to enhanced management efficiency [30][33]. Emerging Business Development - The company is actively expanding into new security areas, including cloud security and data security, with a focus on AI integration [27][28]. - The company has developed a comprehensive cloud-native security defense system, enhancing its capabilities in multi-cloud environments [27][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 94.66 CNY and a fair value of 110.34 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue experiencing high growth in its overseas markets, while domestic demand still has room for contribution. The overall revenue growth is projected to be steady, with a focus on optimizing core products and expanding into international markets [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 888 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64 million CNY, up 4.17% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 126 million CNY, reflecting a 4.56% year-on-year growth [7][8]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1.03 billion CNY in 2025 to 1.56 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 15.9%, 22.2%, and 23.9% [2][20]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from standard general software reached 769 million CNY in 2024, with a growth of 9.93%. The 3D product revenue was 242 million CNY, growing by 29.21% [11]. - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 202 million CNY, marking a 28.77% increase, which accounted for 22.8% of total revenue [19]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was 79 million CNY, with a projected increase to 132 million CNY in 2025. The net profit margin is expected to improve significantly in the coming years, with net profits projected to reach 275 million CNY by 2027 [2][20]. Cost Management - The company has managed to reduce its sales expenses by 4.87% year-on-year, while R&D expenses increased by 14.45%, reflecting a focus on innovation and product development [10][19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the CAD software market, with a strong emphasis on 3D product development. The strategy includes enhancing product capabilities and expanding into high-end manufacturing sectors [19][24]. - The company’s global expansion strategy has shown initial success, with significant revenue growth in overseas markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Americas regions [19]. Valuation Analysis - The company is valued at a PS ratio of 13x for 2025, reflecting its unique position as the only A-share listed company with self-controlled 3D CAD software capabilities. This valuation corresponds to a fair value of 110.34 CNY per share [24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 10.44 CNY and a reasonable value of 14.69 CNY [2] Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in corporate loans, with a year-on-year growth of 14.5% in 2024, focusing on key sectors such as infrastructure and green finance [6] - The non-performing loan ratio has stabilized at 0.83%, showing a slight decrease from the previous year, indicating improved asset quality [6] - The non-interest income has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase of 18.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a challenging year in 2024 [6] - The net interest margin has been under pressure, decreasing to 1.94% by the end of 2024, but the downward trend is easing [6] - The company is expected to see a net profit growth of 0.14% in 2025 and 5.68% in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.72 CNY and 1.83 CNY per share [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 6.5%, 6.2%, and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [6][9] - The total assets grew by 15.4% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 14.69% [9] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance was reported at 11.173 billion CNY, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% [9] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 335.27%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [6] Income Structure - The net interest income has shown a year-on-year increase of 17.8% in Q1 2025, while non-interest income has decreased by 4.5% [12] - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 23.80%, reflecting better operational efficiency [9] Capital Adequacy - The core capital adequacy ratio decreased to 8.89% in Q1 2025, down by 47 basis points from the beginning of the year [6] - The company is expected to enhance its capital position through convertible bonds [6]