Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in store openings, indicating strong growth potential and profit elasticity in the future [7][9] - The revenue for 2024 reached 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248%, with a net profit of 290 million yuan, up 454% year-on-year [9][14] - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory with projected revenues of 51.59 billion yuan, 59.27 billion yuan, and 62.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][52] Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.33 billion yuan, with the snack retail and edible fungus businesses contributing 31.79 billion yuan and 540 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 263% and 1% [9][14] - The total number of snack retail stores reached 14,196, with a net increase of 9,470 stores, while the average revenue per store was 3.36 million yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year [9][14] Profit Summary - The company reported a net profit of 290 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 0.9% [9][24] - The snack retail business generated a net profit of 860 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 2.6% [9][24] - The company’s gross margin, selling expense ratio, and management expense ratio were 10.8%, 4.4%, and 3.0% respectively, showing improvements in cost management [9][24] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 748 million yuan, 1.09 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 22, and 20 [9][52] - The report maintains a target price of 145.47 yuan per share based on a 35x PE valuation for 2025, supporting the "Buy" rating [9][52][57]
万辰集团：开店超预期，利润弹性可期-20250423