CZDH(600230) 民生证券·2024-08-07 14:00Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future growth potential [2][4]. Core Views - Cangzhou Dahua is a well-established polyurethane raw material enterprise, primarily focusing on TDI and PC products, with significant production capacity and advanced technology [1][6]. - The TDI industry is experiencing improved supply-side dynamics and demand recovery, positioning Cangzhou Dahua as one of the most competitive players in the market [2][15]. - The PC industry is expected to see a rapid recovery in supply-demand balance, with Cangzhou Dahua's PC products showing strong competitive advantages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Cangzhou Dahua, originally a fertilizer plant, has evolved into a dual-product new materials enterprise, focusing on TDI and PC production [6][10]. - The company has a production capacity of 150,000 tons/year for TDI, 100,000 tons/year for PC, and 200,000 tons/year for bisphenol A [1][6]. TDI Business - The TDI industry has seen a significant increase in supply concentration, with the top three companies controlling 82.98% of the market share as of 2023 [2][25]. - Cangzhou Dahua is enhancing its TDI production capacity to 385,000 tons/year through technological upgrades and expansions, which will significantly improve its cost competitiveness [1][2][27]. - The demand for TDI is stable, primarily driven by the soft furniture and automotive industries, with a projected annual consumption growth rate of 3.3% until 2028 [16][20]. PC Business - The PC industry is witnessing a recovery in operating rates, with Cangzhou Dahua's PC products, including powder and silicone copolymer PC, gaining market advantages [2][3]. - The company is the first in China to successfully develop silicone copolymer PC, which enhances its competitive position in the market [2][3]. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The report forecasts Cangzhou Dahua's net profits to be 142 million, 295 million, and 435 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.34, 0.71, and 1.05 yuan [2][3]. - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30x for 2024, 14x for 2025, and 10x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [2][3].