大健云仓：海外大件B2B先发制胜，数据驱动构筑核心竞争力

Investment Rating - 6-month rating: Buy (first rating) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid growth in performance and continuous optimization of its business structure, with a total GMV of $790 million in 2023, a 43.6$21 trillion by 2027, and the US furniture market, the largest globally, is projected to maintain steady growth [1] - The company has established a competitive edge through supply chain innovation and AI solutions, with a robust market expansion strategy that is expected to drive continuous growth in GMV [1] Company Overview - The company, GigaCloud Technology (GCT), focuses on cross-border B2B transactions of large goods, leveraging its first-mover advantage in the cross-border e-commerce sector since 2010 [7] - It operates three core business segments: GigaCloud 3P, GigaCloud 1P, and off-platform e-commerce, with GigaCloud 3P contributing 53% of the total GMV in 2023 [1][9] - The company has a stable equity structure and experienced management, with a global logistics network covering North America, Japan, the UK, and Germany, and a total warehouse area of approximately 10 million square feet [7] Industry Overview - The global e-commerce market and penetration rate have been steadily increasing, with the B2B e-commerce market expected to expand further, reaching $21 trillion by 2027 [15] - The US furniture market, the largest globally, is expected to see steady demand growth, with the market size projected to reach$295.4 billion by 2028 [16] - China's B2B cross-border e-commerce sector is booming, with the market size expected to reach 6.9 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by strong growth potential in overseas markets [18] Growth Logic - The company has built a competitive advantage through its "supply chain front-loading" model and AI-driven solutions, which enhance operational efficiency and digital capabilities [1][25] - The company's SKU count has increased to over 30,000, attracting more sellers and buyers, with the number of active sellers and buyers growing by 45.5% and 20.5% respectively in 2023 [32] - The company has expanded its global footprint through strategic acquisitions, such as Noble House and Wondersign, which have strengthened its supply chain and technological capabilities [34][36] Financial Projections & Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $1.05 billion,$1.39 billion, and $1.82 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with adjusted net profits of$120 million, $180 million, and$220 million [41] - The company is given a target price of $56, based on a 13x PE ratio for 2025, and a "Buy" rating is recommended [41]