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传奇生物：2Q24业绩整体超预期，上调目标价
LEGNLegend Biotech(LEGN) 交银国际·2024-08-12 07:47

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Legend Biotech (LEGN US) with a target price of 76.00∗∗,representingapotentialupsideof∗∗33.576.00**, representing a potential upside of **33.5%** [1][5] Core View - The report highlights that the current stock price does not fully reflect the global commercialization potential of Carvykti in multiple myeloma (MM) treatment lines [1] - Legend Biotech's 2Q24 performance exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of the 2024 financial forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to achieve breakeven by 2026, driven by strong revenue growth and improving cost efficiency [1] Financial Performance - **2Q24 Revenue**: Total revenue increased by **154% YoY** to **187 million, with product revenue at 93million∗∗andlicensingrevenueat∗∗93 million** and licensing revenue at **91 million [1] - Gross Margin: Product gross margin exceeded 50% for the first time, reaching 51.4% [1] - Net Loss: 2Q24 net loss narrowed significantly to 18million∗∗(2Q23:∗∗18 million** (2Q23: **199 million), at the lower end of the loss guidance range [1] - 2024 Forecast: Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 are revised to 630million∗∗and∗∗−630 million** and **-264 million, respectively [1] Carvykti Sales and Capacity Expansion - Carvykti Sales: 2Q24 sales grew 60% YoY and 18% QoQ to 186million∗∗[1]−∗∗HospitalCoverage∗∗:ThenumberofUShospitalsofferingCarvyktitreatmentincreasedto∗∗77∗∗(from∗∗71∗∗in1Q24),withatargetof∗∗100∗∗byyear−end[1]−∗∗OutpatientTreatment∗∗:Theproportionofoutpatienttreatmentreached∗∗45186 million** [1] - **Hospital Coverage**: The number of US hospitals offering Carvykti treatment increased to **77** (from **71** in 1Q24), with a target of **100** by year-end [1] - **Outpatient Treatment**: The proportion of outpatient treatment reached **45%** (up from **35%** in 1Q24) [1] - **Capacity Expansion**: Key capacity expansions include: - Novartis initiated clinical production in July, releasing additional commercial capacity in New Jersey [1] - Belgium Phase 1 capacity expected to be approved in 2H24, with Phase 2 and New Jersey expansions set for 2025 [1] - Out-of-stock (OOS) rates for 2-4L MM indications decreased slightly in 2Q24, with further reductions of **5-10%** expected, improving production efficiency and gross margins [1] Financial Model Updates - **Revenue Forecasts**: 2024E revenue revised to **630 million (up 5.0% from previous forecast), with 2025E and 2026E forecasts unchanged at 1,051million∗∗and∗∗1,051 million** and **1,382 million, respectively [2] - Gross Profit: 2024E gross profit revised to 360million∗∗(up∗∗7.3360 million** (up **7.3%**), with 2025E and 2026E forecasts at **604 million and 849million∗∗,respectively[2]−∗∗NetProfit∗∗:2024Enetlossrevisedto∗∗−849 million**, respectively [2] - **Net Profit**: 2024E net loss revised to **-264 million (from -366million∗∗),with2026Enetprofitforecastat∗∗366 million**), with 2026E net profit forecast at **78 million [2] Valuation and DCF Model - DCF Model: The DCF model's starting year rolled forward to 2025, with a target price of 76.00∗∗[1]−∗∗FreeCashFlow∗∗:Freecashflowisprojectedtoturnpositivein2025,reaching∗∗76.00** [1] - **Free Cash Flow**: Free cash flow is projected to turn positive in 2025, reaching **334 million, and growing to 1,419million∗∗by2033[3]−∗∗EnterpriseValue∗∗:Estimatedat∗∗1,419 million** by 2033 [3] - **Enterprise Value**: Estimated at **12,475 million, with equity value of 13,853million∗∗andaper−sharevalueof∗∗13,853 million** and a per-share value of **76.00 [4] Industry Comparison - Legend Biotech is part of the Biotech sub-sector, with a Buy rating and a 33.5% potential upside [5] - Other notable companies in the Biotech sub-sector include BeiGene (6160 HK) with a 41.9% potential upside and Hutchmed (13 HK) with a 29.7% potential upside [5]