交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 70.00 | 港元 91.00↓ | +30.0% | | | 中芯国际 (981 HK) | | | | | | 存储器涨价对需求影响或相对可控；维持买入 王大卫, PhD, CFA Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1867 童钰枫 Carrie.Tong@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1804 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 8,030 | 9,327 | 10,685 | 12,357 | 14,060 | | 同比增长 (%) | 27.0 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 15.6 | 13.8 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 493 | 68 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including CATL (宁德时代), EVE Energy (亿纬锂能), Guoxuan High-Tech (国轩高科), and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the installed capacity of power batteries in China experienced a seasonal decline, with a total of 42.0 GWh, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase but a 57.2% month-on-month decrease due to the Spring Festival [4]. - Exports of batteries remained robust, with a total export of 24.1 GWh in January, marking a 38.3% year-on-year increase, although it was down 26.0% month-on-month [4]. - The global power battery market is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in 2025, with a projected increase of 31.7% to 1,187 GWh, and Chinese manufacturers are expected to gain market share [4]. - The performance of leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with significant profit increases forecasted for several key players [4]. Summary by Sections Installed Capacity and Exports - In January 2026, the installed capacity of power batteries was 42.0 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 57.2% [4]. - The export volume for batteries was 24.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 26.0% [4]. Market Trends - The global power battery market is projected to grow by 31.7% in 2025, reaching 1,187 GWh, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share [4]. - CATL and BYD's global market shares are expected to rise to 30% and 7.9%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0 and 3.8 percentage points [4]. Company Performance - Key companies in the lithium battery sector are expected to report significant profit increases, with Guoxuan High-Tech forecasting a net profit growth of 107% to 149% [4]. - The overall performance of the lithium battery supply chain is entering a recovery phase, with leading companies showing early signs of performance elasticity [4].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2026 年 2 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 7.83 | 港元 8.90↓ | +13.7% | | | 百威亚太 (1876 HK) | | | | | | 中国市场仍待修复，但股息率吸引；小幅下调目标价，维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万美元) | 6,246 | 5,764 | 6,070 | 6,277 | 6,465 | | 同比增长 (%) | -8.9 | -7.7 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | | 净利润 (百万美元) | 726 | 489 | 679 | 731 | 772 | | 每股盈利 (美元) | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | | 同比增长 (%) | -14.7 | -32.8 | 38 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading" indicating expected performance above the benchmark index over the next 12 months [3]. Core Insights - Recent performance shows that US and Hong Kong tech stocks underperformed the market, while A-share tech stocks outperformed. The MSCI Information Technology Index slightly declined by 0.2%, lagging behind the MSCI Global Index which rose by 1.8% [3]. - AI capital expenditures from cloud service providers are expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 65% year-on-year to reach $619.4 billion in 2026, surpassing previous expectations of 33% growth [3][39]. - TSMC reported a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in January 2026, indicating a strong demand for AI infrastructure and a robust capital expenditure guidance of $52-56 billion for 2026 [3][25]. - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in December 2025 decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a stable demand for domestic semiconductor equipment [3][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the period from January 10 to February 9, 2026, the software sector saw a significant decline of 15.8%, while hardware and semiconductor stocks performed better [3]. - The A-share Wind Information Technology Index increased by 0.6%, contrasting with the 0.8% decline in the CSI 300 Index [3]. Semiconductor Market - The average spot price for DDR5 (16Gb) has slightly decreased to $33.61, while the contract price for DDR4 (8Gb) rose to $13.00 in January 2026 [3]. - NAND prices have stabilized after a significant increase over the previous months, with the average price for 1Tb QLC remaining flat in February 2026 [3][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investors focus on AI infrastructure and domestic substitution opportunities, while also being cautious of high valuations that may increase market volatility [3]. - Recommended stocks include Nvidia (NVDA US), Broadcom (AVGO US), and TSMC (TSM US), all rated as "Buy" with reasonable valuations [3][40].

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with limited disruptions, and institutions are increasing their positions in innovative companies, maintaining a positive outlook on undervalued innovative targets [1][4] - The overall market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development transactions, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2026, despite potential short-term volatility [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, ranking second among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - Since Q4 2025, the proportion of domestic capital holding pharmaceutical stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect has slightly decreased, while foreign capital holdings have increased [32] - As of February 10, 2026, domestic holdings were at 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points, while foreign holdings rose to 39.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [32] Sales Performance - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical market sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with public hospitals accounting for the largest market share at 10,977 billion RMB, down 2.1% [5] - Retail pharmacy sales reached 5,878 billion RMB, growing by 2.4%, with online pharmacies seeing a significant increase of 13.6% [5] National Procurement - The recent national procurement round had a high selection rate of 93%, with 1,020 products from 1,091 participating companies expected to be implemented by the end of March 2026 [5] - The procurement process has seen increased participation and a diverse range of selected products, ensuring stability in clinical demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like Sanofi and Hengrui Medicine, which have rich catalysts and clear long-term growth logic [4] - It also suggests looking into CXO companies benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [4]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with a high selection rate of 93%, indicating a positive outlook for innovative companies in the sector [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development (BD) transactions, suggesting a continuation of the positive trend in 2026 despite potential short-term volatility [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamentals and valuations when selecting stocks, particularly undervalued innovative companies that have been overlooked during market fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, outperforming the broader market [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - As of February 10, 2026, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect slightly decreased to 22.2%, while foreign holdings increased to 39.7%, indicating a shift towards more positive sentiment among foreign investors [32] - Key increases in holdings were noted in leading CXO companies benefiting from demand recovery, such as Tigermed and WuXi AppTec [37][38] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for various companies, with notable buy ratings for AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and others, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the healthcare sector is reported at 28.4 times, with specific segments like biopharmaceuticals at 13.1 times [16] Sales Trends - The report notes a 1% year-on-year decline in China's pharmaceutical market sales for 2025, with significant variations across different sales channels [5] - Public hospitals accounted for the largest market share but experienced a 2.1% decline, while retail pharmacies saw a 2.4% increase, driven by online sales growth [5] Procurement Insights - The recent national procurement round involved 316 commonly used drugs, with a high participation rate and diverse product offerings, ensuring stable clinical supply [5] - The procurement process has been refined to enhance quality and reliability, with stricter requirements for participating companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh collaboration and validating its antibody technology platform. This partnership is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue providing stable support for revenue growth [7][12]. - The management expects that three key assets, IBI363, IBI343, and IBI324, will enter global Phase III clinical trials, with IBI363 alone projected to contribute over USD 40 billion to the market [7][12]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12.505 billion, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates, while 2026 revenue is expected to rise to RMB 18.450 billion, an increase of 26.7% [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now forecasted at RMB 10.713 billion, down 41.0%, with a gross margin of 85.7%. For 2026, gross profit is expected to increase to RMB 16.064 billion, with a gross margin of 87.1% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1.055 billion, a decrease of 87.9%, while 2026 net profit is projected to rise to RMB 3.502 billion, reflecting a 37.8% increase [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][11]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161.238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HKD 89.65 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully secured a strategic collaboration with Eli Lilly, marking its seventh major partnership and validating its antibody technology platform. This collaboration is expected to significantly enhance the company's overseas development of early-stage assets and increase global commercialization certainty [2][7]. - The company anticipates strong commercial growth driven by its oncology and comprehensive pipeline in 2026, with projected product revenue growth of approximately 45% year-on-year to RMB 12.505 billion in 2025. Key products are expected to continue supporting revenue growth [2][7]. - The report highlights the potential market space for key assets, estimating over USD 60 billion, with IBI363 alone contributing more than USD 40 billion. The company is also expected to introduce 8-10 new molecules annually from its innovation pipeline starting in 2026 [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 12,505 million, a decrease of 37.1% from previous estimates. However, the 2026 revenue forecast has been increased by 26.7% to RMB 18,450 million, and the 2027 forecast has been raised by 18.6% to RMB 20,830 million [3]. - Gross profit for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 10,713 million, down 41.0% from prior estimates, while the gross profit margin is projected to be 85.7% [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced to RMB 1,055 million, reflecting an 87.9% decrease from previous estimates, but is expected to rise to RMB 3,502 million in 2026 and RMB 4,341 million in 2027 [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.57%, with a 52-week high of HKD 107.00 and a low of HKD 35.50, indicating strong market interest [6][12]. Valuation Model - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model estimates the equity value at RMB 161,238 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00, based on projected free cash flows and a WACC of 9.9% [8][15].

Global Macro - The nomination of Kevin Warsh reflects a rebalancing of monetary policy under the constraints of the Trump 2.0 policy framework, aiming to enhance the alignment of monetary policy with growth and financing cost objectives [2] - Warsh's selection is seen as an optimal compromise, meeting Trump's criteria of being communicative, favoring low interest rates, and avoiding an immediate "independence crisis" narrative [2] - The significance of Warsh's nomination lies not in an immediate change in interest rates but in altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's "toolbox weight" and "intervention boundaries," potentially triggering repricing of term premiums and volatility [2] Asset Implications - The interest rate curve is likely to steepen, with the Federal Reserve expected to tolerate higher long-term rates and risk asset volatility, leading to a scenario where short-term rates decrease while long-term rates remain stable or even rise [3] - The dollar may strengthen in the medium term, provided the narrative of independence is not compromised, despite potential interest rate cuts [3] - A systemic elevation in volatility is anticipated as the Federal Reserve gradually withdraws from micro-management, allowing asset prices to be determined more by fundamentals rather than liquidity illusions [3] Company Focus: NIO Inc. - NIO reported a positive earnings surprise for Q4 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to reach between 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan, marking the first quarter of positive operating profit for the company [6] - This turning point is attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of premium products, and cost reduction efforts, validating the operational leverage of its business model [6] - Looking ahead to 2026, while the first half may experience fluctuations in profit due to seasonal and cost pressures, the launch of new large SUV models in the second half is expected to boost gross margins, making the new vehicle cycle a key catalyst for valuation reassessment [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) with a target price of $275, indicating a potential upside of 37.4% from the current closing price of $200.19 [1][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong execution in the data center segment, with expectations for significant growth in CPU and GPU demand. Management projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% for data center revenue over the next 3-5 years [2][7][8]. - AMD's recent quarterly performance exceeded expectations, with Q4 2025 revenue reported at $10.27 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase. The guidance for Q1 2026 revenue is set at $9.8 billion, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [7][13]. - The report highlights the anticipated launch of new products, including the Venice CPU and MI500 GPU series, which are expected to enhance AMD's competitive position in the market [7][8][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AMD are as follows: $25.79 billion in 2024, $34.64 billion in 2025, $46.73 billion in 2026, $64.63 billion in 2027, and $79.30 billion in 2028, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 13.7%, 34.3%, 34.9%, 38.3%, and 22.7% respectively [6][20]. - Non-GAAP net income is projected to reach $5.42 billion in 2024, $6.83 billion in 2025, $10.84 billion in 2026, $15.93 billion in 2027, and $19.74 billion in 2028, with significant growth rates [6][20]. - The report notes that AMD's gross margin is expected to remain strong, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 55% projected for Q1 2026 [7][8]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - AMD is expected to increase its market share in the data center CPU segment, driven by strong demand and the introduction of new products. The management's confidence in the data center business is reflected in the projected growth rates [7][8][11]. - The report also mentions potential competitive pressures from Intel and NVIDIA, which could impact AMD's market position. However, AMD's technological advantages in hardware configurations are expected to mitigate some of these risks [8][15].