固德威：业绩低于预期，合同负债大增预示业绩有望恢复-20250429

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of RMB 43.30, indicating a potential upside of 5.5% from the current price of RMB 41.05 [1][4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance has been below expectations, with a significant increase in contract liabilities suggesting a potential recovery in future performance. The European market's slow recovery has impacted the company's results, but strong competitiveness in products remains evident [2][7]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.738 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net loss expected at RMB 62 million, which aligns with preliminary earnings reports but is below prior expectations [7][13]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 72% and 42% respectively, reflecting the challenges faced in the current market environment [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7.353 billion in 2023, RMB 6.738 billion in 2024, RMB 8.022 billion in 2025, RMB 8.945 billion in 2026, and RMB 10.508 billion in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 56.1% in 2023 followed by a decline in 2024 [3][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025, and further to RMB 457 million in 2026, with a projected net profit of RMB 787 million in 2027 [3][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.52 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 0.25 in 2024, and recovering to RMB 0.70 in 2025, with a long-term growth trajectory expected thereafter [3][15]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has seen a 52-week high of RMB 77.39 and a low of RMB 37.56, with a current market capitalization of approximately RMB 6.52 billion [6][11]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.51 million shares, indicating a reasonable level of market activity [6]. Segment Performance - The domestic business has shown a revenue increase of 58% to RMB 4.69 billion, while the high-margin European business has seen a decline in revenue to RMB 0.94 billion, primarily due to increased costs and lower sales [7][8]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in contract liabilities, reaching a historical high of RMB 4.4 billion, which is expected to support future revenue recovery [7][8].