交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 29 日 我们长期看好小米在 AIOT 业务上的执行力，但建议投资者关注短期来自传 统家电厂商的竞争和下半年市场对大家电产品的需求。 上调目标价至 62 港元。我们上调 2025/26 年收入预测至 5,030/6,159 亿 元，上调 2025/26 年经调整 EPS 至 1.87/2.14 元（前值 1.51/1.98 元）。我们 下调小米汽车 2026 年 ASP 至 25.4 万元（前值 27.0 万元）。基于 2026 年手 机 x AIoT 26 倍市盈率和汽车业务 2 倍市销率，综合汇率因素，上调目标价 到 62 港元，维持买入评级。 | 快手 | | 1024 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1 季度业绩符合预期；海外运营层面盈利，可灵 | 评级: 买入 | | 商业化加速 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 48.75 | 目标价: 港元 64.00 | 潜在涨幅: +31.3% | | 赵丽, CFA | zhao.li@bocomgroup.com | | 快手 2025 年 1 季度总收入/经调整净利润同比增 11%/ ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 46.19 | 美元 | 60.00 | +29.9% | | | 欢聚集团 (YY US) | | | | | | | 1 季度利润超预期；关注直播企稳及广告业务增量释放 考虑直播业务调整影响持续，我们小幅下调 2025 年收入预期 3%（对应同比降 幅 5%）。基于审慎的营销支出，小幅上调 2025 年经调整净利润预期至 2.7 亿 美元。基于SOTP 估值，维持60 美元目标价，其中：1）BIGO 41 美元，对应8 倍 2025 年市盈率，2）现金 19 美元，基于净现金 30%折价。公司维持稳定股 东回馈（3 年 6 亿美元分红+3 亿美元回购，年均股东回报占市值比 13%）。截 至 1 季度末，公司净现金 34 亿美元，约为目前市值的 150%。维持买入。关注 广告业务增长及对利润贡献。 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -20% - ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 互联网 2025 年 5 月 28 日 拼多多 (PDD US) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 102.98 美元 135.00↓ +31.1% 业绩不及预期，2 季度利润或仍将承压；下调目标价 2025 年 1 季度业绩不及预期，收入及毛利低于预期主因关税不确定性对 TEMU 的影响令美区全托管 GMV 收缩及短期物流成本上升，内地电商广告收入增速 符合预期，调整后净利润低于预期主因内地电商加大补贴应对国补政策下公 司的不利形势。我们预计2季度上述因素持续，利润继续呈下降趋势。我们下 调 2025 年收入/利润预测 9%/25%，预计商家扶持计划对主站变现、TEMU 短 期战略调整对利润的拖累或在 2026 年得到缓释，利润恢复至常态化水平，我 们基于 2026 年 10 倍市盈率，目标价从 165 美元下调至 135 美元，看好中长期 业务恢复常态化运营后的盈利能力，维持买入。 盈利预测变动 | | | —————2025E————— | | | | —————2026E————— —————2027E————— | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

交银国际研究 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 | | 46.19 | 美元 60.00 | +29.9% | | | 欢聚集团 (YY US) | | | | | | 1 季度利润超预期；关注直播企稳及广告业务增量释放 考虑直播业务调整影响持续，我们小幅下调 2025 年收入预期 3%（对应同比降 幅 5%）。基于审慎的营销支出，小幅上调 2025 年经调整净利润预期至 2.7 亿 美元。基于SOTP 估值，维持60 美元目标价，其中：1）BIGO 41 美元，对应8 倍 2025 年市盈率，2）现金 19 美元，基于净现金 30%折价。公司维持稳定股 东回馈（3 年 6 亿美元分红+3 亿美元回购，年均股东回报占市值比 13%）。截 至 1 季度末，公司净现金 34 亿美元，约为目前市值的 150%。维持买入。关注 广告业务增长及对利润贡献。 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted from $165 to $135, indicating a potential upside of 31.1% from the current price of $102.98 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue and gross profit impacted by tariff uncertainties affecting TEMU and rising short-term logistics costs. The mainland e-commerce advertising revenue growth met expectations, but net profit was below forecasts due to increased subsidies in response to national policies [3][7]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on profits in Q2 2025 due to these factors, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts by 9% and 25% respectively for 2025 [3][4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a return to normalized profit levels by 2026, supported by strategic adjustments and merchant support plans [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised to RMB 449.83 billion, down from RMB 496.41 billion, reflecting a 9.4% decrease. For 2026 and 2027, revenue is expected to be RMB 556.01 billion and RMB 630.39 billion, respectively [4][15]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 104.83 billion, a 25.4% decrease from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to decline from 28.5% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated thereafter [4][15]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a significant drop in adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, which fell 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.92 billion, significantly below consensus estimates [7][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, down from 62% in the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [8][9]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $143.36 billion, with a year-to-date change of 6.18% [6][10].

交银国际研究 快手 (1024 HK) 1 季度业绩符合预期；海外运营层面盈利，可灵商业化加速 1 年股价表现 买入 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1024 HK MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 66.35 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 38.15 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 173,731.84 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 26.57 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 17.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 49.84 | 资料来源 : FactSet 赵丽, CFA 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 港元 48.75 | 港元 64.00 | +31.3% | | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 蔡涵 hanna.cai@boco ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Kuaishou (1024 HK), with a target price of HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][24]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance of Kuaishou met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 32.6 billion and RMB 4.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [5]. - The report highlights that Kuaishou's overseas operations have turned profitable, accelerating commercialization efforts [2]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce GMV and advertising revenue, with projections for the second quarter indicating a 14% year-on-year increase in e-commerce GMV and a 12% growth in advertising revenue [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 126.90 billion in 2024, RMB 142.34 billion in 2025, RMB 155.56 billion in 2026, and RMB 168.17 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 12.2%, 9.3%, and 8.1% respectively [25]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.50 billion in 2027, with significant growth in the years 2024 and 2025 [25]. - The report notes that the adjusted net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 14% for 2025, maintaining similar levels to 2024 [5]. Segment Performance - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% year-on-year, with the MAU penetration rate at 19% and average spending per user increasing by 7% [5]. - Online marketing revenue growth has slowed to 8% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from external advertising and support for merchants [5]. - Live streaming revenue has resumed growth, increasing by 14% year-on-year, with a significant rise in the number of contracted agencies and streamers [5]. Valuation - The report maintains the 2025 profit expectation at RMB 20.3 billion, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 14% [5]. - A valuation premium is applied due to Kuaishou's leading video generation capabilities and commercialization potential, with a target price based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 28 日 今日焦点 | 美团 | | 3690 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 外卖竞争投入加大，看好美团外卖业务运营能 | | 评级: 买入 | | 力，维持买入 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 129.40 | 目标价: 港元 165.00↓ | 潜在涨幅: +27.5% | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 年 1 季度业绩：收入同比增 18%，其中核心商业/新业务增 18%/19%。核心商业调整后运营利润率 21%，同比提升 3.2 个百分点； 新业务运营亏损 23 亿元，同比持续收窄，环比小幅扩大。 外卖补贴加大或影响 2 季度 CLC 收入及利润增长。我们预计外卖单量同 比增速中高个位数，闪购仍维持略超 30%的单量增速，即时配送日单预 计同比增 11%。补贴增加对收入或有短期负面影响，我们预计 2 季度外 卖/闪购收入增速分别为 4%/30%，UE 同比下降。预计到店酒旅 GTV/收 入/利润增速分别为 28%/18%/18%，竞争趋缓后业务稳健增长。新业务 受零售及 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA | 电力 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 3.19 | 港元 3.77↑ | +18.2% | | | 中国电力 (2380 HK) | | | | | 上半年火电点火价差有望优于预期，目前股息率仍吸引；上调目标价 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2380 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 4.24 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 2.77 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 39,460.94 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 25.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 0.63 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 3.01 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | b ...

| 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 388,895 | 436,083 | 472,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 8.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 23,253 | 43,772 | 47,005 | 60,350 | 68,671 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.71 | 7.00 | 7.58 | 9.73 | 11.08 | | 同比增长 (%) | 715.5 | 88.6 | 8.4 | 28.4 | 13.8 | | 前EPS预测值 (人民币) | | | 8.42 | 9.94 | 11.30 | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -10.0 | -2.1 | -2.0 | | 市盈率 (倍) | 32.0 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 10.7 | ...