交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in revenue, with projections of 23% and 21% growth for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery services and an increase in order volume [2][6]. - The management anticipates that profit margins will continue to improve, aiming for a margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable trend of scalable profit growth, with a substantial increase in net profit expected in 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and an expanding customer base [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19.35 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year [5][13]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1.374 billion in 2025, reflecting a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 269 million in 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.4% [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.40, with a current market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the same-city delivery service revenue is expected to be RMB 11.316 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 24% [7][13]. - Last-mile delivery revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.034 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 21% [7][13]. Cost Structure - The total operating costs are expected to be RMB 17.977 billion in 2025, leading to a projected operating profit of RMB 274 million [7][13]. - The report outlines a focus on cost management and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [6][7]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the company, emphasizing its growth potential in the same-city delivery market and the expected improvement in profit margins over the coming years [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operational costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s polysilicon production is forecasted to be 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease in sales [9][14]. Segment Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the polysilicon segment at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments at RMB 70 billion, leading to a total valuation of RMB 84 billion [10][12]. - The estimated value per share from the non-polysilicon segments is HKD 5.24, while the total target price is set at HKD 6.28 [10][12]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 34.18%, with a 52-week high of HKD 10.92 and a low of HKD 4.93 [6][12]. - The current price-to-book ratio is 0.20, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its book value [7][12].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...

市场策略 港股周报 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 2025年4月2日 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 均衡配置，静待转机后的弹性上涨机会 特朗普关税政策即将落地，市场情绪延续承压： 本周市场聚焦美国经济数据、大范围关税的政策措施和力度： 2025年4月2日 2 • 短期缺乏叙事主题，资金延续分歧。随着近期内地政策发布放缓，企业业绩落地接近尾声，叠加科技缺乏重要催化， 宏观基本面及估值叙事暂时缺乏向上突破的逻辑，资金延续分歧，且在部分公司配售压力下，恒生科技指数连续两周 盘整，自高点已回落超过10%，进入到技术性调整区间。 • 关税新一轮冲击，全球避险情绪升温。继上周特朗普宣布对美国进口汽车征收25%的关税，美国对等关税调查结果也 将于本周落地。由于特朗普近期在关税立场上再度转为强硬，使得此前关税缓和预期有所逆转，美股连续调 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | 均衡配置，静待转机后的弹性上涨机会 | 宏观策略 | | --- | --- | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 特朗普关税政策即将落地，市场情绪延续承压： 短期缺乏叙事主题，资金延续分歧。随着近期内地政策发布放缓，企业 业绩落地接近尾声，叠加科技缺乏重要催化，宏观基本面及估值叙事暂 时缺乏向上突破的逻辑，资金延续分歧，且在部分公司配售压力下，恒 生科技指数连续两周盘整，自高点已回落超过 10%，进入到技术性调整 区间。 关税新一轮冲击，全球避险情绪升温。继上周特朗普宣布对美国进口汽 车征收 25%的关税，美国对等关税调查结果也将于本周落地。由于特朗 普近期在关税立场上再度转为强硬，使得此前关税缓和预期有所逆转， 美股连续调整，风险传导至亚太地区，避险情绪显著升温，亚太地区股 指已多出现调整。 本周市场聚焦美国经济数据、大范围关税的政策措施和力度： 大范围"对等关税"落地在即。市场预测 4 月 2 日美国将公布的新一轮关 税政策，可能包含如高达 20%的全球性关税，几乎覆盖全部美国贸易伙 伴，以及考虑针对特定行业推出专 ...

公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.23 | 港元 | 8.00 | +28.4% | | | 龙源电力 (916 HK) | | | | | | 交银国际研究 2024 年风电电价优于预期，订出 3 年派息政策应受投资者欢迎 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 916 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.31 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,670.39 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 69.63 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.26) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.34 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 18 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 49.20 | 人民币 | 51.00↑ | +3.7% | | | 恒瑞医药 (600276 CH) | | | | | | | 创新药和对外合作推动业绩高增长，后续 BD 机会仍可观，上调目标价 公司 2024 年业绩强劲增长，主要得益于创新药销售的持续放量、以及多个 BD 出海交易的许可收入贡献。早期管线有序推进，即将在多个大型学术会议上 公布临床数据，未来有望产生更多传统/NewCo 模式的 BD 交易机会。上调目 标价，但考虑到当前估值合理、长期内公司仍面临集采风险，维持中性。 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 600276 CH MSCI A股指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 56.01 | | --- | --- | ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 80.15 | 人民币 | 86.00↓ | +7.3% | | | 卓胜微 (300782 CH) | | | | | | | 利润压力高于预期，下调至中性；期待 2H25 后利润回升 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 300782 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 117.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 59.10 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 42,844.18 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.13 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (10.65) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 89.92 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA ...