交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.23 | 港元 | 8.00 | +28.4% | | | 龙源电力 (916 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年风电电价优于预期，订出 3 年派息政策应受投资者欢迎 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.31 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,670.39 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 69.63 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.26) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.34 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 郑民康 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 916 HK 恒生指数 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 18 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 49.20 | 人民币 | 51.00↑ | +3.7% | | | 恒瑞医药 (600276 CH) | | | | | | | 创新药和对外合作推动业绩高增长，后续 BD 机会仍可观，上调目标价 公司 2024 年业绩强劲增长，主要得益于创新药销售的持续放量、以及多个 BD 出海交易的许可收入贡献。早期管线有序推进，即将在多个大型学术会议上 公布临床数据，未来有望产生更多传统/NewCo 模式的 BD 交易机会。上调目 标价，但考虑到当前估值合理、长期内公司仍面临集采风险，维持中性。 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 600276 CH MSC ...

交银国际研究 交银国际研究团队 2025年4月1日 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 概览：全球不确定性升温，港股以守待攻 | 宏观策略团队：李少金 钱昊 | | | | | | | | | | 行业研究团队 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场要点 evan.li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 | | 四月研选 | | | | | | | | | | 全球不确定性升温下，港股3月呈震荡走势。在2月显著上涨后，港股3月上涨 | 股票 | | | 目标价 | 潜在 | | | | | | | | 代码 | 公司 | 行业 | （LC） | 空间 | 评级 | 风格 | | 分析师 | 概述 | | 动能有所转弱，恒生科技指数已进入技术性调整区间，但年初至今仍领跑全球 | ★QFINUS | 奇富 | 金融 | 58.0 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 1 日 今日焦点 每月金股 四月研选：全球不确定性升温，港股以守待攻 交银国际研究团队 全球不确定性升温下，港股 3 月呈震荡走势。2 月显著上涨后，港股 3 月上涨动能有所转弱，恒生科技指数已进入技术性调整区间，但年初至 今仍领跑全球主要股指。在科网龙头股估值修复已较为充分的形势下， 盈利预期上调仍相对谨慎。与此同时，南向资金仍维持净流入态势，资 金出现阶段性分歧，多空博弈加剧下，港股由单边上涨转为震荡走势。 展望后市，中美双方能否达成新一轮协议将会是市场走势的重要方向， 也将是后市行情重要的催化剂。若短期缓和预期有催化，港股或有望重 拾上涨弹性；另一方面，1 季度"开门红"效应下，国内生产、投资端数 据表现强劲。央行未如预期降准降息，全年降息幅度预期亦有所收窄。 基于消费支持政策刚刚落地，生育补贴、消费贷有待进一步细节，短期 进一步大力出台稳增长措施概率有所降低。进入 4 月，后续消费、地产 等各项基本面的数据验证、以及关税等外生性影响将成为市场关注重点 ，也是 4 月底中央政治局会议会否释放更进一步政策刺激信号的关键。 行业风格配置：高弹性＋高股息 科技创新 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 80.15 | 人民币 | 86.00↓ | +7.3% | | | 卓胜微 (300782 CH) | | | | | | | 利润压力高于预期，下调至中性；期待 2H25 后利润回升 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 300782 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 117.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 59.10 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 42,844.18 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.13 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (10.65) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 89.92 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 3.81 | 港元 | 3.47↓ | -8.9% | | | 凯盛新能 (1108 HK) | | | | | | 4 季度亏损扩大，光伏玻璃价格近期强劲反弹有助减亏，维持中性 个股评级 中性 1 年股价表现 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 6,595 | 4,594 | 4,557 | 4,871 | 5,309 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1 | -30.3 | -0.8 | 6.9 | 9.0 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 395 | (610) | (252) | (44) | 34 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 0.61 | (0.94) | (0.39) | (0.07) | 0.05 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 20.80, representing a potential downside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 28.20 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's operational and profit growth for 2024 is under pressure, necessitating a rebalancing of its future profit structure [2]. - The core profit for 2024 is expected to be significantly below market expectations, with a forecast of HKD 4.15 billion, which is 30% lower than the previous expectations [7]. - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year decrease in residential connections, which is a major factor contributing to the lower-than-expected profitability [7]. - The retail gas volume growth for the year is projected at 2.9%, below the anticipated 5%, influenced by a warmer winter [7]. - The dividend policy appears irregular, causing confusion among investors, with a projected decline in the full-year dividend payout ratio to 52% from 2023 [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 101.27 billion in 2023 to HKD 102.68 billion in 2024, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decline from HKD 5.22 billion in 2023 to HKD 4.09 billion in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year decrease of 21.7% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain flat at HKD 1.79 for 2024, with a slight increase to HKD 1.89 in 2025 [3][18]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2025, indicating a declining valuation trend [3][18]. Operational Data - The residential gas sales volume is expected to increase from 9.44 million cubic meters in 2023 to 10.04 million cubic meters in 2024, representing a growth rate of 2.9% [10]. - The company anticipates a decrease in new residential connections, with projections of 2.69 million in 2024, down from 3.37 million in 2023 [10]. - The retail gas margin is expected to slightly improve to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter by 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 20.80, indicating a potential downside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 28.20 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's operational and profit growth for 2024 is under pressure, necessitating a rebalancing of its future profit structure [2]. - The core profit for 2024 is expected to be significantly below market expectations, with a forecast of HKD 4.15 billion, which is 30% lower than previous estimates [7]. - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year decrease in residential connections, which is a major factor contributing to the disappointing earnings [7]. - Despite a 67% increase in interim dividends, the final dividend is expected to drop by 30% due to weaker performance in the second half of the year [7]. - The company is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 6% in profits from 2024 to 2027 [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 101.27 billion in 2023 to HKD 111.29 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 3.2% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decline from HKD 5.22 billion in 2023 to HKD 4.99 billion in 2027, reflecting a downward trend in profitability [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase gradually from HKD 1.79 in 2023 to HKD 2.16 in 2027, with a notable adjustment of -32.5% for 2025 [3][18]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.7 in 2023 to 13.1 by 2027, indicating a declining valuation trend [3][18]. Operational Data - The residential gas sales volume is expected to grow from 9.44 million cubic meters in 2023 to 12.01 million cubic meters by 2027, with a growth rate of 3.3% [10]. - The company anticipates a decrease in new residential connections, projecting 2.30 million in 2025, down 14% from the previous year [10]. - The retail gas margin is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.54 per cubic meter by 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 36.90 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the study company is experiencing pressure in its study abroad business while maintaining stable performance in K12 education. The revenue for non-selective business is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin declining by approximately 2.5 percentage points due to slower growth in study abroad-related services and investments in cultural tourism [2][8]. - The company plans to allocate more resources to youth study abroad services, and with cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures taking effect, there is still potential for long-term profit margin improvement [2][8]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue projections for FY25E have been slightly adjusted to USD 4,902 million, a decrease of 0.9% from previous estimates. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is projected at USD 5,670 million and USD 6,420 million, reflecting decreases of 2.2% and 3.9% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for FY25E is forecasted at USD 503 million, with an operating profit margin of 10.3%. For FY26E and FY27E, the adjusted operating profit is expected to be USD 656 million and USD 771 million, with margins of 11.6% and 12.0% respectively [3][13]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at USD 474 million, with a net profit margin of 9.7%. For FY26E and FY27E, net profit is expected to be USD 519 million and USD 620 million, with margins of 9.2% and 9.7% respectively [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue sources, indicating that the study abroad consulting and preparation services are expected to generate USD 1,182 million in FY25E, while high school education is projected at USD 1,295 million. New business segments are expected to contribute USD 1,268 million [3][8][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Jiaya Medical (6078 HK), with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of medical insurance cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that while the company's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 9%, it falls short of expectations, with a notable decline of 11% in the second half of 2024. The oncology segment remains stable, contributing 44% to revenue, while outpatient services show resilience with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing expansion through new hospitals and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the future. The company is also exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance landscape, including internet hospitals and self-paid services related to innovative drugs [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward by 16-21% and 21-27%, respectively, reflecting the short-term impact of medical insurance cost control on the company's performance [6][7]. - The updated financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue at RMB 4,987 million, a decrease of 15.8% from previous estimates, with a net profit forecast of RMB 743 million, down 20.6% [6][13].