迎驾贡酒：业绩超预期，洞藏系列引领结构升级

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2024, achieving revenue of 3.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.379 billion yuan, up 29.59% year-on-year [5] - The growth in mid-to-high-end liquor products is steady, with significant contributions from both domestic and foreign markets [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its mid-to-high-end product sales model and optimizing its pricing system, leading to an increase in the revenue share from mid-to-high-end liquor [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.04%, and a net profit of 466 million yuan, up 27.96% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin and net margin for Q2 2024 were 71.15% and 31.95%, respectively, reflecting improvements due to the growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales [5] - The company expects revenues of 8.22 billion yuan, 9.91 billion yuan, and 11.69 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 20.5%, and 18.0% [6][8] Market and Product Analysis - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor (Dòngcáng and Jīnyínxīng series) and regular liquor (Bǎinián Yíngjiāgòng and Zāofāng series) generated revenues of 1.069 billion yuan and 313 million yuan in Q2 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 25.03% and 6.46%, respectively [5] - The company has increased its number of distributors to 1,423, with 779 in the domestic market and 644 in the foreign market, indicating a focus on expanding its core market presence [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.92 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 4.43 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 25.0%, and 21.2% [6][8] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve to 73.4% in 2024 and further to 75.9% by 2026 [8]