证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 2024Q4+2025Q1 中低档酒降速调整，省内洞藏系列势能延续 2024 年收入稳健增长、净利率提升，2024Q4+2025Q1 调整降速。2024 年公司实 现收入 73.44 亿元/同比+8.5%，归母净利润 25.89 亿元/同比+13.4%；2024Q4 收 入 18.30 亿元/同比-5.0%，归母净利润 5.83 亿元/同比-4.9%；2025Q1 收入 20.47 亿元/同比-12.3%，归母净利润 8.29 亿元/同比-9.5%。2024Q4+2025Q1 看，收入 同比-9.0%，净利润同比-7.7%。 2024 年前高后低，洞藏系列增势延续。分产品看，2024 年中高档/普通白酒收入 57.13/12.90 亿元，同比+13.8%/-6.6%；其中中高档酒销量同比+9.3%，吨价同 比+4.1%；预计洞藏系列增势延续，全年仍增长双位数以上，洞 9、洞 6 增速更 快；结构升级推动酒类业务毛利率同比+2.73pcts。分区域看，2024 年省内/省 外市场收入 50.93/19.09 亿元，同比+12.8 ...

迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 省外普酒承压 Q1 净利率创新高 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年全年公司实现营收/ 归母净利润 73.44/25.89 亿元，同比+8.46%/+13.45%；经计算，24Q4 实现营 收/归母净利润 18.30/5.83 亿元，同比-5.00%/-7.88%；25Q1 实现营收/归母净 利润 20.47/8.29 亿元，同比-12.35%/-9.25%。 ➢ 省外中低档普酒缩量承压，洞藏向上势能延续。分产品看：酒类主营 70.02 亿元，同比+9.39%，量增+0.14%，价增+9.24%。毛利率 76.81%，同比 +2.73pcts。其中：①中高档白酒(洞藏及金银星)24 年实现营收 57.13 亿元，同 比+13.76%，量增+9.31%，价增+4.07%，毛利率提升+1.83pcts 至 81.07%， 在酒类主营业务中占比+3.14pcts 至 81.58%。25Q1 中高档白酒营收 17.20 亿 元，同比-8.57%。②普通酒(百年及糟坊)24 年实 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 周梦婷 北京报道 迎驾贡酒交出了一份令投资者失望的成绩单。4月28日晚，迎驾贡酒发布财报显示，虽然2024年营收净利润维持双 增长，但在白酒销售旺季的第一季度，迎驾贡酒2025年出现营收净利润双双下滑的异常表现。财报发布次日，迎 驾贡酒股价大幅下挫8.98%，盘中一度跌至近两年的最低点43.91元/股，4月30日截至记者交稿，再跌0.18%，收报 44.33元/股，总市值354.64亿元。 作为长期依赖省内市场的区域酒企，迎驾贡酒2025年Q1遭遇关键转折——其安徽省内营收出现近三年来首次下 滑。伴随着全国性名酒加速渠道下沉，以本土市场为根基的迎驾贡酒正面临前所未有的竞争压力。 "失落"一季度 迎驾贡酒坐落于安徽省霍山县，现有迎驾贡酒·大师版、迎驾洞藏、迎驾金银星、百年迎驾、迎驾古坊等多个系列 产品。伴随着业绩下滑，迎驾贡酒虽未减少对销售费用等成本的支出但也变得谨慎起来。2025年第一季度，该公 司销售费用为1.58亿元，同比增长0.8%，2024年第一季度，该公司销售费用同比增幅为27.2%。对于今年迎驾贡酒 销售费用规划，"整体全年会保持相对稳定 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.12 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 performance was below expectations due to intensified competition and weaker sales in the liquor market [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, particularly the "洞藏" series, which has seen a 13.8% increase in sales revenue for 2024. The strategy includes strengthening the domestic market while gradually expanding into external markets [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 73.9% in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades. The net profit margin also increased to 35.3% in 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 2.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase. However, Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 12.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales accounted for 87.7% of its liquor business revenue, with a notable increase in the "洞藏" series [2]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cultural Welcoming" strategy, focusing on the mid-to-high-end "洞藏" series and enhancing its market presence in Anhui while expanding into other provinces [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased to 1,377, with 751 in the domestic market and 626 in external markets, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen channel infrastructure [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.9%, and it improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025. The net profit margin also saw an increase to 40.5% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.34 RMB, with a target price based on a 18x PE ratio, leading to a target price of 60.12 RMB [4][6].

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月29日 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 核心聚焦洞藏，底盘产品出清 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:48.79元 主要数据 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.yingjia.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 安徽迎驾集团股份有限公司/72.22% | | 实际控制人 | 倪永培 | | 总股本(百万股) | 800 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 800 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 390 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 390 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.34 | | 资产负债率(%) | 22.7 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）*季报点评*收 入稳定增长，省内基本盘稳固*推荐20241029 【平安证券】迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）*半年报点评 *2Q延续增势，利润表现亮眼*推荐20240818 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S10605 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. The performance in Q1 2025 was below expectations [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.2 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 46.4% [4] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to demand pressure, with projected net profits of 2.40 billion, 2.54 billion, and 2.72 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.4%, 6.0%, and 7.1% respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 7.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. The net profit is expected to be 2.59 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.5% [6] - The Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 6.80 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.5%. The net profit is projected at 2.40 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 73.9%, with a net margin of 35.3%, reflecting an increase in product mix improvement [8] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to reach 5.71 billion yuan, growing 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue is projected at 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [7] - The company’s revenue from the domestic market is expected to be 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is projected at 1.91 billion yuan, growing 1.31% year-on-year [7] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 1.91 billion yuan, down 13.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tax payments [8] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 are projected to be 578 million yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous year [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, with a total revenue of 73.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 25.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase [7] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in mid-to-low-end liquor sales, while the "Dòngcáng" series continues to show strong growth potential [7] - The report indicates that the company is adjusting its product offerings to clear out low-end items, which has led to a significant decline in sales for lower-tier products [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 7,344 million yuan in 2024, 7,378 million yuan in 2025, 7,862 million yuan in 2026, and 8,685 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.46%, 0.46%, 6.57%, and 10.47% [1] - The net profit forecast is set at 2,589 million yuan for 2024, 2,617 million yuan for 2025, 2,842 million yuan for 2026, and 3,205 million yuan for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.45%, 1.06%, 8.60%, and 12.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.24 yuan in 2024, 3.27 yuan in 2025, 3.55 yuan in 2026, and 4.01 yuan in 2027 [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.07 for 2024, 14.92 for 2025, 13.73 for 2026, and 12.18 for 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported a total operating revenue of 7.344 billion yuan for 2024, marking an increase of 624 million yuan or 8.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 5.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.76%, with a gross margin of 81.07%, up 1.83 percentage points [2] - The company achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023, with revenue increasing from 4.577 billion yuan to 6.72 billion yuan and net profit from 1.382 billion yuan to 2.288 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor market, with the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing from approximately 78.44% in 2023 to 81.59% in 2024 [1][2] - The domestic market remains the primary sales area for the company, with domestic revenue of 5.093 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.75% year-on-year, while the external market revenue was 1.909 billion yuan, up only 1.31% [2][3] - The company aims to strengthen its market presence in core areas such as Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, while expanding into central and northern China [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The "Dongcang" series is the company's main product line, targeting various price segments to enhance sales [3] - The company acknowledges challenges in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, with a decline in revenue for both mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The industry is experiencing deep adjustments, with intensified competition and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality upgrades and brand resilience [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% for the full year 2024, with a net profit increase of 13.4%. However, the growth rates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 were below market expectations due to significant declines in sales of lower-tier products [7] - The company’s high-end product line, particularly the "洞藏" series, continues to grow rapidly, while the mid-to-low-end products are showing signs of fatigue [7] - The company is actively managing its cash flow and inventory to ensure healthy channel profits and turnover [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 6,771 million, projected to be 7,344 million in 2024, and 7,378 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.99%, 8.46%, and 0.46% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 2,282 million, expected to rise to 2,589 million in 2024 and 2,617 million in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 33.85%, 13.45%, and 1.06% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 3.24 in 2024 and 3.27 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 15.07 and 14.92 respectively [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly from 1,907 million in 2024 to 3,926 million in 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, with a total revenue of 73.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 25.9 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase [7] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in mid-to-low-end liquor sales, while the "Dingcang" series continues to show strong growth potential [7] - The report highlights a proactive approach to managing cash flow and inventory, ensuring healthy channel profits and turnover [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 6,771 million RMB, 2024A: 7,344 million RMB, 2025E: 7,378 million RMB, 2026E: 7,862 million RMB, 2027E: 8,685 million RMB [1] - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 2,282 million RMB, 2024A: 2,589 million RMB, 2025E: 2,617 million RMB, 2026E: 2,842 million RMB, 2027E: 3,205 million RMB [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 2.85 RMB, 2024A: 3.24 RMB, 2025E: 3.27 RMB, 2026E: 3.55 RMB, 2027E: 4.01 RMB [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025-2027 are projected to be 14.9, 13.7, and 12.2 respectively [7]