炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：棱镜 文 | 温世君编辑 | 孙春芳 出品 | 棱镜·腾讯小满工作室 硬木书桌、紫砂茶具，墙上一幅装裱妥当的"舍得"，这是大江南北老板们的办公室里，常见的"装置艺 术"。 在那个遍地机遇的时代，"舍得"曾是商界备受追捧的座右铭：舍小谋大，进退有据。或者说，这两个字 也是时代的得利者们跨越阶层的勋章，是在酒桌酩酊半醉半醒，口吐"真言"时，最常被洞察的人生真 谛。 即便如此，郭广昌仍是最理解"舍得"二字的资本大佬。不仅仅因为他是舍得酒的老板。 2026年1月底，舍得酒业（600702.SH）间接控股股东、也是复星系旗下六大A股上市公司之一的豫园股 份（600655.SH）发布业绩预告：2025年归母净利润预计亏损48亿元。这家上交所"老八股"，迎来1992 年上市以来首次年度亏损。 在官方解释中，豫园股份的亏损源于地产下行与消费疲软的双重压力。但在当下，选择一次性大举计提 资产减值、推进库存去化，也颇具复星系一贯"舍"的风格：用阵痛，换取腾挪的生存空间。 复星系一切的开端，也是从34年前的一次"舍"开始：1992年，25岁的郭广昌从复 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end brands, indicating a strategic buy recommendation for major players like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [3][7]. Core Insights - The overall sales volume for the liquor industry during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to decline by 10%-20% year-on-year, which is slightly better than market expectations prior to the festival [3][6]. - A significant characteristic of the 2026 Spring Festival sales is the increasing differentiation and concentration among top brands, with high-end liquor performing exceptionally well. Moutai is projected to see a sales increase of over 30% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 5%-10% [3][6]. - The industry is entering a notable destocking phase, with inventory levels for first-tier brands significantly lower than the same period last year [3][6]. - Prices for first-tier brands are stabilizing, with Moutai's price currently above 1700 yuan, expected to stabilize above 1600 yuan post-festival [3][6]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - High-end liquor brands are outperforming expectations, with Moutai showing the best performance. Wuliangye is leveraging price adjustments to increase volume, while Guojiao 1573 is maintaining price stability [8][6]. - Moutai's sales are expected to grow by over 30%, with inventory levels at distributors being nearly zero [8][6]. - Wuliangye's sales are projected to increase by 5%-10%, with inventory levels at distributors around 10%-15% lower than last year [8][6]. - Guojiao 1573 is expected to see a sales decline of 15%-20%, while its low-end variant remains stable [8][6]. Regional Feedback - Feedback from various regions indicates a mixed performance, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing resilience, while mid-tier and local brands face challenges [19][21]. - In North China, overall sales are down by about 15%, with high-end brands benefiting from increased consumer interest [12][21]. - In Jiangsu, the overall sales volume is expected to decline by 10%-15%, with Moutai maintaining stable performance [19][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the second half of 2026 will see a turning point for top brands in terms of sales and financial performance, with a potential dual boost in valuation and earnings by the end of the year [7][3]. - The industry trend is shifting towards consolidation, with larger companies absorbing smaller ones, leading to inevitable differentiation among listed companies [7][3].

"嘀嘀——" 满载农产品的大货车缓缓驶入 车灯划破夜空 这里是北京东北部最大的农产品批发市场 顺鑫石门市场 也是首都市民"菜篮子" "果盘子""肉案子"的枢纽站 当整座城市渐入梦乡，这里的灯火却愈发璀璨。新春佳节，我们走进昼夜不息的顺鑫石门市场，记录下 这些为年味儿保驾护航的"守夜人"。 22:00 蔬菜"抢鲜"进场 胡旭旺了解蔬菜进场情况。 商户打包称重蔬菜。 "这车土豆从内蒙古来，那车大白菜是唐山直发。"蔬菜区入口，石门市场菜市管理部部长胡旭旺手持对 讲机，一路小跑引导着车辆。货车停稳，商户们立刻卸货、分拣、打包，动作利落。 工作人员夜间巡查。 今年已是胡旭旺连续第15年在岗过春节。他搓了搓冻红的手说："春节是保供关键期。我们夜间值班值 守主要负责引导车辆、巡查储备及安全隐患。咱们多熬一夜，千家万户的饭桌就多一分丰盛。" 00:00 猪肉大厅灯火通明 一排排白条猪整齐悬挂。 凌晨，猪肉大厅进入繁忙时段。挂钩上一排排白条猪整齐悬挂，商户们将白条猪分割、过秤，动作利 落。日均有1600头鲜猪经此流向市民餐桌。 工作人员查看相关检疫证明。 天亮了 年味儿愈发浓郁 "年夜饭的红烧肉、排骨汤，源头就在咱们这儿，马虎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the cultural fusion and warmth of the Chinese New Year celebrations experienced by a cross-national couple, Zhang Dingran and his German wife, Jenny, in Shunyi, Beijing, showcasing how traditional Chinese customs blend with Western elements [1][10]. Group 1: Cultural Practices - The couple incorporates various traditional Chinese New Year elements, such as festive snacks, decorations, and the preparation of dumplings, which symbolize family unity and cultural heritage [1][9]. - Jenny has become familiar with Chinese New Year customs over the years, demonstrating her integration into local traditions by actively participating in activities like making dumplings and explaining customs to their children [9]. Group 2: Local Products and Brands - The couple's celebration features local Shunyi products, including Yanjing beer and Shunxin Pengcheng meat products, which represent the quality and cultural significance of local brands [5][9]. - The presence of local brands in their New Year celebration serves as a bridge connecting foreign friends and local culture, enhancing the festive atmosphere in Shunyi [9][10]. Group 3: Community and Cultural Exchange - The article emphasizes the growing appreciation among foreign residents for traditional Chinese customs, indicating a broader cultural exchange that enriches the local community [10]. - The celebration of Chinese New Year is portrayed as a shared experience that transcends cultural boundaries, making it a warm and inclusive occasion for both locals and expatriates [10].

Core Insights - JD Supermarket released the top sales list for Qingxiang Baijiu for 2025, with Fenjiu, Niulanshan, and Hongxing ranking in the top three positions, followed by brands like Yongfeng, Kinmen Kaoliang, and Tianyoude, showcasing the landscape of the Qingxiang Baijiu market [1][3] Group 1 - Qingxiang Baijiu is characterized by its "low spiciness and comfortable aftertaste," with traditional famous brands maintaining market dominance [3] - Fenjiu holds the top position due to its status as the originator of Qingxiang Baijiu and its strong brand heritage [3] - Niulanshan and Hongxing represent the core of the Erguotou category, maintaining strong competitiveness in the northern market and among everyday consumers [3] Group 2 - Yongfeng, Kinmen Kaoliang, and Tianyoude form the backbone of the list, with Yongfeng recognized for its high cost-performance in the mass consumer market [3] - Kinmen Kaoliang is favored for its Taiwanese regional characteristics, offering a rich flavor that appeals to consumers [3] - Tianyoude differentiates itself by using barley as a raw material, creating a unique competitive advantage [3] Group 3 - Other brands like Xinghuacun, Fenxing, Yidangliang, and Baofeng each have their unique characteristics, enriching the ecosystem of Qingxiang Baijiu [3] - Yidangliang has successfully differentiated itself with youthful packaging and flavors that appeal to the new generation [3] Group 4 - The 2026 JD Supermarket New Year Festival is currently ongoing, offering promotions such as 50% off gift boxes and a million free order benefits [3] - The event includes an interactive segment called "Wish for the New Year," providing surprises and benefits to millions of consumers [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Xi'an City Market Supervision Administration conducted a quality inspection of 112 batches of food products, revealing that one batch of longan sold at a convenience store exceeded the permissible limit of sulfur dioxide residues, prompting immediate action to recall the product and address the violation [3]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 112 batches from 14 categories of food products were inspected, with one batch failing due to excessive use of food additives [3]. - The specific non-compliance was found in longan sold by a convenience store in Xi'an, with sulfur dioxide residue measured at 0.295 g/kg, exceeding the national standard limit of 0.05 g/kg [3]. Group 2: Actions Taken - The Xi'an City Market Supervision Administration has mandated relevant departments to take immediate action to manage the identified non-compliant products, including product recall and risk control measures [3]. - Consumers are encouraged to report any instances of the non-compliant products found in the market by calling the complaint hotline [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The recent food safety supervision sampling conducted by the Nantong Market Supervision Administration revealed that out of 203 batches of various food products tested, 200 batches were found to be compliant with safety standards, while 3 batches were deemed non-compliant. Group 1: Food Safety Supervision Results - A total of 203 batches of food products were tested, covering 14 categories including pastries, alcoholic beverages, edible oils, meat products, dairy products, and snacks [2][3]. - Out of the 203 batches, 200 were found to be compliant, resulting in a compliance rate of approximately 98.5% [2][3]. Group 2: Non-Compliant Food Products - Three batches were identified as non-compliant, with specific details provided in the attached documentation [2][3]. - The non-compliant products include items from various categories, indicating potential areas for improvement in food safety standards [2][3].

Group 1 - The Dazhou Market Supervision Administration conducted a special food safety inspection for the New Year and Spring Festival in January 2026, focusing on food production enterprises, supermarkets, and small workshops in various districts [2] - A total of 149 batches of food samples were tested, including edible agricultural products, meat products, edible oils, and nuts, with no non-compliant food found [2][3] Group 2 - The inspection covered multiple counties and districts, including Tongchuan, Quxian, Dazhu, and Xuanhan, ensuring a wide geographical reach [2] - The results of the inspection are detailed in an attached report, which includes information on the sampled products and their compliance status [3]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional liquor brand Niulanshan is facing significant challenges despite the booming market for light bottle liquor, with a projected net loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan in 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss for the company [2] Group 1: Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Niulanshan's revenue decreased by 19.79% to 586.9 million yuan, and its net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 79.85%, with a net loss exceeding 19.3 million yuan in the fourth quarter, representing the worst performance in recent years [2] - The white liquor segment, which accounts for 78.51% of the company's revenue, is identified as the main culprit for the poor performance [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - The implementation of new national standards for liquor in 2022 has led to a crisis for Niulanshan's flagship product, "Bai Niu Er," which was reclassified as "flavored liquor" due to the addition of food flavoring, resulting in a dramatic drop in sales from 416,900 kiloliters to 246,400 kiloliters in 2023, with a further decline of 33.05% in the first half of 2025 [3] - The light bottle liquor market has shifted from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean," with competitors like Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao entering the market and attracting quality-seeking consumers, while Niulanshan's low-price strategy struggles to maintain its market share [3] Group 3: Distribution and Consumer Trends - Long-term reliance on a "big merchant system" has led to price transparency and frequent low-price diversion by distributors, resulting in a 23.36% decline in distribution revenue in 2025 [4] - The traditional consumer base of Niulanshan, primarily blue-collar workers, has been negatively impacted by the real estate sector's adjustments, while younger consumers prefer lower-alcohol, visually appealing, and situational drinks, making it difficult for traditional high-alcohol light bottle liquor to attract their attention [4] Group 4: Strategic Response - In early 2026, Niulanshan launched a new product, the 36-degree Jinbiao Niulanshan light-flavored liquor, targeting younger consumers with a price range of 58-78 yuan, which received positive feedback online shortly after its launch [5] - Industry experts suggest that Niulanshan faces dual pressures of cyclical and structural challenges and must implement brand segmentation, transparency in production processes, and channel reforms to overcome its difficulties [5] - The pork business of its parent company, Shunxin Agriculture, has seen a reduction in losses in 2025, but it is insufficient to offset the drag from the liquor business [5] Group 5: Industry Context - The challenges faced by Niulanshan reflect a broader anxiety within the liquor industry during a period of deep adjustment, highlighting the need to balance tradition and innovation amid consumer upgrades and the rise of younger demographics [6] - The story of Niulanshan illustrates that there are no permanent national liquors, only enduring consumer demands, and the current crisis presents an opportunity for brand rejuvenation through product innovation and channel transformation [6]