当光瓶酒赛道迎来2000亿元市场规模的狂欢，昔日"国民下酒菜"牛栏山却在寒冬中瑟瑟发抖。2026年1 月29日，母公司顺鑫农业发布的业绩预告堪称"年度惊吓"：2025年预计净亏损1.16亿元-1.88亿元，同比 由盈转亏，曾经的"光瓶酒大王"为何在赛道扩容时掉队？这场从36度微醺酒开始的自救，能否让老牌民 酒重拾江湖地位？ 2025年的白酒行业，冰火两重天的剧情正在上演。一边是茅台、汾酒等头部企业股价逆势上涨，一边是 顺鑫农业的业绩断崖式下跌。数据显示，顺鑫农业2025年前三季度营收同比减少19.79%至58.69亿元， 归母净利润暴跌79.85%，第四季度更是净亏损超1.93亿元，创下近年最差业绩。作为营收占比78.51%的 核心业务，白酒板块的疲软成为"罪魁祸首"。 消费群体的迭代更是给老牌民酒致命一击。牛栏山传统主力消费群——蓝领阶层受房地产行业调整影 响，消费能力下降；而Z世代消费者更青睐低度、高颜值、场景化的酒饮，传统高度光瓶酒难以吸引其 目光。尽管牛栏山曾凭借"牛碧桶"（白酒+雪碧）在社交媒体引发关注，但缺乏持续的产品创新，流量 难以转化为销量。 面对危局，牛栏山在2026年初祭出年轻化转型大招— ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanya Technology (688519.SH) is expected to achieve revenues of 49.48 billion, 61.75 billion, and 73.41 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.24 billion, 5.11 billion, and 7.83 billion CNY respectively, leading to a target market value of 229.80 billion CNY and a target price of 97.88 CNY for 2026, receiving a "Buy" rating [2][7]. - Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) is projected to have revenues of 72.6 billion, 79.6 billion, and 86.7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of -1.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 1.7 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline in 2025 but recovery in subsequent years, and is rated "Accumulate" [4][21]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The demand for high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027, driven by AI and high-frequency applications, although the market is currently dominated by a few key players [8][9]. - The white liquor industry is facing significant pressure, with production showing negative growth and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality over quantity, leading to intensified competition and a focus on value rather than scale [20][21]. - The asset tokenization market is entering a new era of compliance management, providing more diverse financing channels for companies with quality underlying assets, which may optimize their financing structures and enhance compliance credibility [15][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]

2月3日，工业和信息化部公布了2025年度中国消费名品名单，北京市共有六个品牌脱颖而出，其中酒类行业表现亮眼——牛栏山与北京二锅头双双入选， 分别跻身"时代优品"和"区域品牌"行列。这一成绩在体现北京酒业深厚的历史底蕴的同时，彰显了传统产业在新时代的创新活力。 | 序号 | 品牌名称 | 申报单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 历史经典 | | | | 1 | 六必居 | 北京六必居食品有限公司 | | 时代优品 | | | | 2 | 牛栏山 | 北京顺鑫农业股份有限公司 | | 3 | 大宝 | 北京大宝化妆品有限公司 | | 4 | 八喜 | 北京艾莱发喜食品有限公司 | | 序号 | 品牌名称 | 申报单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 北京二锅头 | 北京市大兴区人民政府、北京市顺义区人民政府、 | | | | 北京市怀柔区人民政府 | | | | 助残产品 | | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 T | 品牌名称 春立 | 申报单位 北京市春立正达医疗器械股份有限公司 | 企业品牌"牛栏山"的拥有者北京顺鑫农业股份有限公司牛栏山酒厂，195 ...

继1月29日大涨后，白酒板块在2月1日再次逆势上涨，多只个股表现活跃。 截至2月2日收盘，wind白酒指数（884705）报收58999.08点，涨幅3%，19只白酒股全线飘红；其中， 金徽酒（603919.SH）、皇台酒业（000995.SZ）涨停，水井坊（600779.SH）涨幅超7%，金种子酒 （600199.SH）涨幅超5%。 机构指出，白酒板块已历经约5年调整，当前估值与公募持仓均处于历史低位，配置价值逐渐凸显。不 过，也有分析认为，行业仍处调整期，部分酒企业绩下滑，需注意相关风险。 | < W | | 白酒指数(884705) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 58333.08 1700.33 +3.00% | | | | *** | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 测 三 | | 金徽酒 603919.SH | | 23.98 | 10.00% | 0.00% | | 三层渠道 000995.SZ | | 17.52 | 9.98% | 0.00% | | 水井坊 | | 44. ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 1.86% on February 2, with Jinhuijiu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed significant price increases, with Jinhuijiu up 10.00% to 23.98, and Huangtaijiu up 9.98% to 17.52 [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.464 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 448 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major liquor stocks included Luzhou Laojiao at 33.07 billion yuan and Wuliangye at 57.54 billion yuan [2] - The stock performance of major companies included Moutai with a closing price of 1427.00, up 1.86%, and Wuliangye at 107.29, up 2.18% [1][2] Group 3 - Moutai had a main fund net inflow of 5.46 billion yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 861,700 yuan [3] - Luzhou Laojiao saw a main fund net inflow of 1.56 billion yuan, with a retail net outflow of 1.1 billion yuan [3] - Water Well Square had a main fund net inflow of 1.46 billion yuan, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 58.5 million yuan [3]

长江商报消息●长江商报记者 黄聪 顺鑫农业（000860.SZ）甩掉房地产板块包袱后，还是出现了亏损。 1月30日，顺鑫农业发布的业绩预告显示，公司预计2025年归母净利润为-1.16亿元至-1.88亿元，比上年 同期下降150.18%至181.33%；扣非净利润-1.16亿元至-1.88亿元，比上年同期下降147.22%至176.52%。 顺鑫农业表示，报告期内，白酒行业持续深度调整，市场竞争激烈。公司白酒业务面临较大压力，销量 同比减少，影响公司整体业绩水平。 长江商报记者发现，顺鑫农业营业收入已连续5年下滑。顺鑫农业2025年营业收入预计仅有75亿元左 右，为巅峰期2020年155.11亿元的一半。 2025年12月底，顺鑫农业公告显示，公司选举宋立松为公司董事长。宋立松的过往从业经历中，没有与 白酒和猪肉产业直接相关的工作，其是否能带领顺鑫农业增收、增利，从而走出业绩泥潭，受到外界关 注。 扣非最高预亏1.88亿 顺鑫农业从事的主要业务包括白酒酿造与销售，种猪繁育、生猪养殖、屠宰及肉制品加工。公司现已形 成了以白酒、猪肉为主的两大产业。 资料显示，顺鑫农业白酒产业的主要产品以"牛栏山"和"宁诚"为代表 ...

顺鑫农业（000860）(000860.SZ)甩掉房地产板块包袱后，还是出现了亏损。 1月30日，顺鑫农业发布的业绩预告显示，公司预计2025年归母净利润为-1.16亿元至-1.88亿元，比上年 同期下降150.18%至181.33%；扣非净利润-1.16亿元至-1.88亿元，比上年同期下降147.22%至176.52%。 顺鑫农业表示，报告期内，白酒行业持续深度调整，市场竞争激烈。公司白酒业务面临较大压力，销量 同比减少，影响公司整体业绩水平。 长江商报记者发现，顺鑫农业营业收入已连续5年下滑。顺鑫农业2025年营业收入预计仅有75亿元左 右，为巅峰期2020年155.11亿元的一半。 2025年12月底，顺鑫农业公告显示，公司选举宋立松为公司董事长。宋立松的过往从业经历中，没有与 白酒和猪肉产业直接相关的工作，其是否能带领顺鑫农业增收、增利，从而走出业绩泥潭，受到外界关 注。 扣非最高预亏1.88亿 顺鑫农业从事的主要业务包括白酒酿造与销售，种猪繁育、生猪养殖、屠宰及肉制品加工。公司现已形 成了以白酒、猪肉为主的两大产业。 资料显示，顺鑫农业白酒产业的主要产品以"牛栏山"和"宁诚"为代表，"牛栏山"目前拥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with many companies experiencing a shift from profit to loss or a notable decline in performance due to deep industry adjustments and intense market competition [1][3]. Company Performance - JiuGuiJiu (酒鬼酒) expects a net profit loss of 33 million to 49 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][2]. - Shunxin Agriculture (顺鑫农业) anticipates a net profit loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan, also transitioning from profit to loss due to intense market pressure and declining sales [1][2]. - Jinzhongzi Liquor (金种子酒) projects a net profit loss of 150 million to 190 million yuan, remaining in a loss position despite a narrowing of losses compared to the previous year [3]. - Tianyoude Liquor (天佑德酒) expects a net profit of 4.21 million to 6.32 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 85% to 90% year-on-year [2][3]. - ShuiJingFang (水井坊) forecasts a net profit of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit declining by 70% [2][3]. - KouziJiao (口子窖) anticipates a net profit of 662 million to 828 million yuan, representing a decrease of 50% to 60% year-on-year [3]. Industry Trends - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, leading to slow recovery in core consumption scenarios [3]. - High inventory levels and weak terminal sales are common pressures affecting the industry, directly impacting company operations [3]. - Despite the current downturn, there are indications that the industry may gradually enter a recovery phase as macroeconomic conditions improve and consumer demand rebounds [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shunxin Agriculture's stock price dropped by 6.6% on January 30, following the announcement of a projected net loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan for 2025, marking a significant decline of 150.18% to 181.33% year-on-year due to intensified competition and a downturn in the liquor industry [1]. Company Summary - Shunxin Agriculture attributes its performance decline to a deep adjustment in the liquor industry and increased market competition, particularly affecting its core product, the "Niulanshan" series, which saw a decrease in sales [1]. - The company launched a new product, the "36% Jinbiao Niulanshan" white liquor, priced at 78 yuan per bottle, aiming to enter the high-end market [2]. - The "Niulanshan" brand, known for its affordable products, has struggled to maintain its previous sales levels, with the flagship product "Bai Niu Er" experiencing over a 40% decline in sales since being reclassified as a flavored liquor under new national standards [4]. Industry Summary - The low-end liquor market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major brands like Fenjiu and Wuliangye entering the light bottle liquor segment, leveraging their brand strength and distribution channels to capture market share [6]. - Young consumers are shifting towards more cost-effective and health-oriented alternatives, such as domestic red wine and yellow wine, which are gaining popularity in the market [7]. - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on scale expansion to value cultivation, with the low-end market now requiring a comprehensive approach to consumer psychology, scene adaptation, and brand storytelling [7].