投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 指数震荡偏强，控仓过节不慌 朝闻道 20260213 市场策略 指数震荡偏强，控仓过节不慌 风格策略 中盘蓝筹周期强，往畜牧养殖调仓 行业策略 农业：生猪库存再临低位，节前测试价格底部 主题策略 军工：内外需共振，配置价值凸显 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、行业政策不及预期、军品订 单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期等。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 13 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 ⚫ 本周指数震荡偏强，临近长假，市场避险意愿明显弱于上周。板块轮动较快，影 视、AI、有色等方向轮番表现但持续性不佳。我们维持 2 月谨慎乐观判断，指数横 盘震荡，震荡区间主要围绕一月份上证指数的高低点展开，高点注意风险，低点不 必恐慌。当下指数运行至一月高点区间，建议控制仓位，调整结构 ...

中芯国际 688981.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 | 四季度营收超公司指引 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 50.4/67.4/80.4 亿元（原预测为 52.2/65.6/79.8 亿元，主要调整了毛利率、费用率及部分损益项），采用 DCF 估值法，给予 150.27 元 目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 生产设备难以购买；价格竞争过于激烈；政府补助、投资收益等其他收益不确定的风 险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 45,250 | 57,796 | 67,310 | 78,958 | 90,364 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9% | 28% | 16% | 17% | 14% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 6,906 | 6,299 | 8,312 | 10,888 | 12,433 | | 同比增长 (%) | -53% | -9% | 32% | 3 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for February, with the index expected to stabilize and oscillate around the highs and lows of January, suggesting a controlled approach to position management during the holiday season [3][8] - The mid-cap blue-chip style is expected to continue, with a focus on adjusting positions rather than passive defense, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors [3][8] Industry Strategy - In the agricultural sector, the report highlights that pig inventory is at a low point, with price bottoms being tested ahead of the holiday season. The market's pessimistic expectations regarding pig prices are seen as overestimated, with a potential recovery in prices anticipated as inventory levels stabilize [5][8] - The report notes that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter has dropped to approximately 88.3 kg, indicating limited downward price movement potential. The report predicts a price turning point in Q2 2026, with the average price for the year expected to exceed market expectations [5][8] - The report emphasizes the military industry, highlighting the resonance of domestic and international demand, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" unfolds, particularly in unmanned and deep-sea technologies [6][8] Related Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks in the agricultural sector include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Haida Group (002311), with a buy rating suggested [5][8] - In the military sector, recommended stocks include Huaxin Technology (688281) and Guobo Electronics (688375), with a buy rating suggested [6][8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of 0.8%[6] - The CPI month-on-month remained flat at 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[6] - The decline in CPI is attributed to both base effects and weak month-on-month momentum[6] - Core inflation remains the main contributor, with clothing, services, and medical care showing positive growth, while food, housing, and transportation experienced negative growth[6][17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -1.9%[23] - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - The rise in PPI is driven by base effects and stronger month-on-month momentum, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector[23][32] - Non-ferrous metals continue to provide the main upward pressure on PPI, while other sectors like equipment and durable goods show slight improvements[32] Group 3: Price Transmission Issues - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by external factors, with limited transmission to downstream prices[35] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to lead to a significant rebound in CPI for February 2026, as historical trends suggest a month-on-month increase[35] - External geopolitical factors are expected to support PPI in the short term, but internal price transmission requires more demand-side policies and capacity clearing measures[35]

中芯国际 688981.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 | 四季度营收超公司指引 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 50.4/67.4/80.4 亿元（原预测为 52.2/65.6/79.8 亿元，主要调整了毛利率、费用率及部分损益项），采用 DCF 估值法，给予 150.27 元 目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.15 | -10.76 | -2.31 | 14.03 | | 相对表现% | -0.17 | -9.81 | -3.64 | -7.36 | | 沪深 300% | 0.32 | -0.95 | 1.33 | 21.39 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][6][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the configuration suggestion is to dig for opportunities in the pro - cyclical market, emphasizing both the chemical and agricultural sectors. The agricultural sector is expected to have price - rising prospects due to emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, funds are under - allocating to the agricultural sector, and the agricultural sector, with its mid - cap blue - chip characteristics, is expected to resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - In 2025, the agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with significant structural differentiation. Pig farming was under pressure, while beef cattle farming showed good performance. Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector [6][15] - For 2026, fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal, especially in the breeding sector such as pig and beef cattle farming [6][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 February Configuration Suggestion - Configuration strategy: Focus on the chemical and agricultural sectors in the pro - cyclical market. The agricultural sector is favored because of price - rising opportunities from emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, active equity mutual funds allocate less than 0.5% to the agricultural sector, and the scale proportion of agricultural - related ETFs is also low. The agricultural and forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with mid - cap blue - chip features, may resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - Recommended funds: Suggest paying attention to funds such as YinHua Agriculture Industry A, Agriculture Select LOF, etc. YinHua Agriculture Industry A holds the most agricultural - sector stocks and mainly allocates to the breeding sector, with a high proportion of holdings in pig and poultry breeding companies [2][9][10] 2025Q4 Quarterly Report on Agricultural Fund Core Viewpoints 2025 Agricultural Sector Market - Overall performance: The agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with structural differentiation. Although the agricultural index rose slightly in Q4, sub - sectors like breeding and feed declined, while the agro - chemical sector performed well due to supply - side adjustments [6][15] - Key sub - sectors: Pig farming was under pressure as pig prices hovered at the bottom, and the industry entered a new cycle of capacity reduction. Price recovery is expected in the second half of 2026. Beef cattle farming was outstanding, with beef prices rebounding significantly from the bottom, large - scale and long - term capacity reduction, and good stock price performance. Consumption - related sectors were sluggish [6][15][17] 2025 Agricultural Sector Configuration - Configuration ideas: Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector. They moderately increased holdings in leading enterprises during the trough of the breeding industry and concentrated their allocations on excellent companies in various sub - fields [17] - Fund types: Agricultural theme funds continued to focus on the breeding industry chain and adjusted their positions according to the cycle. Some general consumption funds slightly increased their allocations to the agricultural sector with low current valuations in Q4 [18][19] 2026 Agricultural Sector Outlook - Overall outlook: Fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector in 2026, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal. They emphasize the price - rising foundation at a low base and the reversal potential after capacity reduction. They are particularly optimistic about the upward cycle of the beef cattle/animal husbandry industry [20] - Pig farming opportunity: The capacity reduction that started in the second half of 2025, combined with policy constraints and deep losses, will enable the pig farming sector to reach a cycle configuration point or price reversal in 2026, especially in the second half of the year [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a contrarian view, suggesting that while there is market anticipation for a cyclical turning point due to recent price stabilization and reduced listings in core cities, further observation is necessary. Key cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen still face significant pressure, and the recent market improvements are attributed to specific factors such as seasonal demand shifts and policy expectations [2][3] - The government’s policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector. Despite expectations for a major policy shift, the report indicates that the fundamental approach has not changed significantly [3] - The report highlights that the real estate sector has shown stronger performance than the broader market, driven by policy easing expectations and improvements in core city markets. It suggests that investors should actively participate in the sector, especially in the short term, while remaining cautious about long-term fundamentals [5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate sector has outperformed the market, with A-shares showing a weekly excess return of 1.34% against the CSI 300 index [11] - In the A-share market, stocks like JingTuo Development led gains with a weekly increase of 23.72% [17] - The Hong Kong property sector indices have also outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable gains in companies like Contemporary Land [15][18] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - There has been a marginal improvement in listing prices in major cities, with Shanghai showing a rebound of 0.2% since January 18, 2026 [20] - The listing volume in first-tier cities has decreased significantly, with Shanghai experiencing a year-on-year decline of 20.08%, while Shenzhen saw an increase of 107.38% [24] - As the Spring Festival approaches, transaction volumes in major cities have turned negative, with declines of 26.54% in Guangzhou and 27.61% in Shenzhen [38] New Housing Weekly Tracking - The market is entering a "pre-holiday silence" period, with overall transaction volumes in the top ten cities declining by 14%, although Shanghai's new home transactions increased by 23% [56] - Total inventory has slightly decreased, with first-tier cities showing a more significant reduction. The average de-stocking period has lengthened seasonally, particularly in second-tier cities [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, particularly in the context of increasing demand for gas turbines and generators due to the expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to its profitability in the medium to long term [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 67.7% in 2023 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.2% to 21.7% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.3% in 2025 to 7.6% in 2027 [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 14.1% in 2025 to 17.7% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, which will contribute to profitability [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, anticipating a significant increase in profitability as overseas clients expand their gas and diesel generator production [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 12.1% in 2023 to 17.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [5][11].

资产配置 | 定期报告 前期热点波动上行，中盘蓝筹风险可控 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | | 021-63326320 | 20260209A 股风格及行业配置周报 研究结论 风险提示 1、 极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘超预期事件等，可能打破统计上的历史规 律； 2、 量化指标失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 11 日 | 中国资产相对占优，中债看避险，A 股看 | 2026-02-10 | | --- | --- | | 结构：20260209 多资产配置周报 | | | 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 | 2026-02-04 | | 换：——资产配置月报 202 ...