Market Strategy - The market is currently in a volatile yet upward trend, driven by position recovery, maintaining a cautious optimism for February. The index is expected to oscillate around the high and low points of January, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips for investment opportunities [2][6] - The strategy suggests actively adjusting portfolios towards mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the chemical and livestock sectors, which are seen as having strong cyclical performance post-holiday [2][6] Industry Strategy - The agricultural sector is encouraged to expand into international markets to overcome growth limitations faced by domestic agricultural enterprises. Successful international ventures typically involve product and technology exports, asset investments, and mergers or joint operations, emphasizing the importance of core product advantages and complete industry chain layouts [3][6] - Key investment targets in the agricultural sector include Muyuan Foods (002714, buy) and Haida Group (002311, buy), with relevant ETFs being Agricultural ETF (159825/159827) and Grain ETF (159698) [3][6] Thematic Strategy - The rare earth sector is poised for a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with expectations of rising rare earth prices in 2026 due to sustained demand and supply-side improvements. The geopolitical landscape enhances the strategic value of rare earths, making it a key area for investment [4][6] - Notable investment targets in the rare earth sector include China Northern Rare Earth Group (600111, buy) and China Rare Earth Group (600259, not rated), with relevant ETFs being Rare Earth ETF (159713/516150) [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of refinancing policies on the convertible bond market is limited, and the post - holiday market is promising. The current situation of supply - demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is difficult to resolve quickly in the short term. The market's expectation of a medium - to - long - term slow - bull market remains unchanged, and trading opportunities are better than allocation opportunities at present [6][9]. - The pre - holiday adjustment in the A - share market may be preparing for the entry of incremental funds after the holiday. In an environment of stable domestic and volatile foreign markets, foreign capital inflows are worth looking forward to, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged, with mid - cap blue - chip stocks becoming the mainstay in the future [6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Views: Limited Impact of Refinancing Policies, Promising Post - holiday Market - The new refinancing policies have two main impacts on the convertible bond market: allowing high - quality broken - issue enterprises to obtain financing qualifications and concentrating future new convertible bond supplies in high - quality science and technology enterprises such as those in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high - end manufacturing. After the new rules, Zhongke Shuguang announced plans to issue 8 billion yuan of convertible bonds. High - quality and scarce targets and new bonds will still be popular, while mediocre ones will be marginalized [6][9]. - The current trend of convertible bonds is mainly supported by the underlying stocks. Although the valuation of convertible bonds is high, the possibility of active valuation reduction in the short term is low. Trading opportunities are better than allocation opportunities at present. Attention should be paid to technical indicators, and when the overall market premium rate is too high, the importance of the remaining term of individual bonds becomes more prominent. It is recommended to focus on newly - issued bonds, bonds that waive redemption, and those with non - reduced shares by shareholders [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Declining Convertible Bond Transactions, Volatile and Rising Valuations 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Rose, but Trading Volume Declined - The equity market strengthened slightly and then declined. Technology stocks were stronger than heavy - weight stocks. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 3.37%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.90%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%, the CSI 2000 Index rose 1.17%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.12%, and the North Exchange 50 Index rose 0.58%. In terms of industries, the comprehensive, computer, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the textile and clothing, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors led the losses. The average daily trading volume decreased by 298.263 billion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan [16]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Yubang Convertible Bond, Yingliu Convertible Bond, Hengshuai Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Baichuan Convertible Bond 2, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Fengyu Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [16]. 2.2 Declining Convertible Bond Transactions, Leading Gains of High - priced and Small - cap Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise significantly. The 100 - yuan premium rate reached a new high, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 75.505 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion parity decreased 1.2% to 107.5 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 2.0% to 34.8%. In terms of style, high - priced and small - cap convertible bonds led the gains this week, while large - cap and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [6][21].

Group 1: Economic Transition - The shift from real estate economy to technology economy involves significant changes in industrial structure, development models, and institutional reforms, impacting key macroeconomic variables such as production, inflation, employment, fiscal policy, and monetary policy[2]. - By 2025, the contribution of new quality productivity industries to total output has surpassed that of the real estate construction chain, indicating a need for macroeconomic research to focus more on new quality productivity[11]. - The traditional development model driven by urbanization and population growth is transitioning to one focused on stock optimization and quality improvement due to slowing urbanization[8]. Group 2: Industrial Structure and Macroeconomic Features - The industrial structure has shifted from a real estate and construction-centric model to one centered around new quality productivity, which includes emerging manufacturing and certain service sectors[12]. - New quality productivity industries are expected to have a greater impact on total output than the real estate construction chain by 2025, reflecting their higher efficiency and growth potential[20]. - The inflation impact from new quality productivity industries is weaker compared to upstream factors like commodities and real estate, indicating a limited ability to drive PPI increases[25]. Group 3: Employment and Development Models - The labor compensation in new quality productivity sectors is lower than in traditional industries, which may create pressure on income and employment, necessitating a focus on developing service consumption to mitigate these effects[31]. - The transition from a cost advantage to a quality advantage in the labor force is evident, as the number of highly educated graduates continues to rise, supporting productivity growth in manufacturing[41]. Group 4: Institutional Mechanisms and Macro Control - The macro control mechanisms need to adapt to support the technology economy, moving away from real estate dependency and enhancing the role of direct financing systems[54]. - The fiscal and tax systems must evolve to accommodate new business models and support emerging industries, with a focus on expanding local tax sources and creating a tax system that aligns with new economic realities[56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the lithium industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The lithium industry is expected to transition from a state of "realistic oversupply" to "future tightness," marking 2026 as a pivotal year for price recovery [19] - The financial attributes of lithium have strengthened, with market expectations likely to lead pricing ahead of fundamental improvements [20] - The absolute price heights may be difficult to replicate, but a gradual increase in the price floor is more certain [21] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Viewpoint Discussion - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for lithium prices, moving from a low base to a higher equilibrium due to limited supply elasticity and sustained demand growth [19] - The demand for lithium is projected to maintain a compound growth rate of over 20%, driven by the expansion of renewable energy installations and AI-related infrastructure [19] 2. 2025 Lithium Price Review - In Q1 2025, lithium prices experienced fluctuations due to supply constraints and strong demand expectations, with prices peaking at approximately 78,500 CNY/ton [22] - Q2 2025 saw a decline in prices due to a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping to around 60,400 CNY/ton by the end of June [29] - Q3 2025 marked a recovery in prices, driven by supply-side disruptions and seasonal demand increases, with prices reaching approximately 72,700 CNY/ton by September [36] 3. Demand Analysis - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with energy storage becoming a core growth driver, potentially surpassing 30% of total lithium demand by 2026 [8] - The global electric vehicle market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, although at a slightly reduced pace [19] 4. Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures in the lithium sector have decreased significantly, leading to a structural delay in new project approvals and expansions [10] - The report anticipates limited new supply additions in the coming years, with a projected net increase of 448,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026 [18] 5. Supply-Demand Balance Analysis - The report suggests that the lithium market may not require a complete supply clearing to reverse the current trends, as both supply and demand are expected to increase [38] - Inventory levels are seen as a lagging indicator rather than a decisive factor in price movements [39] 6. Investment Recommendations - Companies with expansion projects in the next three years are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, including Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [12] - Companies with diversified business models that can stabilize profits amid lithium price fluctuations are also recommended, such as Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The focus is on increasing allocations in the large aircraft and military trade sectors, with expectations for growth in these areas due to geopolitical events and advancements in core technologies [8] - The large aircraft sector is expected to see accelerated development, particularly with the C919 aircraft, as key components are set to achieve certification and production targets [11][12] - Military trade is anticipated to benefit from heightened defense spending in the Middle East due to regional tensions, with expectations for increased market share for Chinese military exports [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is viewed positively for the first half of the year, despite recent adjustments and lower-than-expected launch activities [13] - Domestic demand in the military sector is expected to recover, with potential for exceeding current market pessimism as the "14th Five-Year Plan" progresses [14] Summary by Sections 1.1 Large Aircraft - The report highlights that the current market has low expectations for the large aircraft sector, particularly regarding the C919's delivery volumes. However, advancements in engine and onboard systems are expected to accelerate, potentially leading to a faster-than-expected development pace in the next two years [11][12] 1.2 Military Trade - The report notes that escalating tensions in the Middle East are likely to increase defense spending and military imports in the region. China's military trade share is expected to rise as countries diversify their defense procurement sources [12] 1.3 Commercial Aerospace - Despite recent adjustments in the commercial aerospace sector, the report maintains a positive outlook for investment opportunities in leading companies, particularly in satellite manufacturing and related technologies [13] 1.4 Domestic Military Demand - The report suggests that the market has been overly pessimistic regarding domestic demand recovery. It anticipates that as geopolitical uncertainties rise and the "14th Five-Year Plan" is implemented, demand in the military sector may recover faster than expected [14] 1.5 Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively investing in core targets within the large aircraft and military trade sectors, while monitoring the commercial aerospace sector for potential catalysts. Specific companies are highlighted for investment consideration [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [8] Core Viewpoints - The energy metals market has seen a slight rebound in prices due to a recovery in other non-ferrous markets, although overall trading activity has slowed ahead of the holiday [4] - The lithium price is expected to shift from "short-term fluctuations" to "upward opportunities" before the second quarter [4] - The cobalt sector is supported by tight raw material costs, limiting overall downward space, and is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Judgment: Pre-holiday Trading Slows, Cobalt and Lithium Supported by Others - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning [12] - The lithium sector's fundamentals have eased, with a cooling spot market before the holiday, but there is potential for an upward trend in the second quarter [12] - The price of lithium concentrate is reported at $2,000 per ton, up $120 from the previous week [12] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - North American battery factories are shifting towards AI-related energy storage systems due to declining electric vehicle sales [16] - Tianhua New Energy forecasts a net profit decline of 47.83% to 56.23% for 2025, primarily due to structural imbalances in supply and falling prices of lithium hydroxide [16] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Production Changes and Price Movements - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4% [17] - The weekly average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 6.04% [61] - The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 6.28% [61]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a recovery in the food and beverage industry, focusing on upstream opportunities. It suggests that the consumption power, which has been constrained by debt cycles, is expected to improve significantly by the second half of 2026, leading to a recovery in traditional consumption [8] - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Agricultural processing, including sugar processing, juice processing, and livestock 2. Food raw material suppliers, focusing on bio-extraction and sugar substitutes 3. Food packaging, which is expected to benefit from cost increases and improved competitive dynamics [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Focus on upstream sectors with three main lines: 1. Agricultural processing: - Sugar processing: Recommend COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy), related stock Crown Agricultural (600251, Not Rated) - Juice processing: Related stocks Andeli (605198, Not Rated), Andeli Juice (02218, Not Rated) - Livestock: Recommend Youran Dairy (09858, Buy), related stock Modern Farming (01117, Not Rated) 2. Food raw material suppliers: - Bio-extraction: Recommend Angel Yeast (600298, Buy), Bairun (002568, Buy), related stocks Chenguang Biotech (300138, Not Rated), Huabao International (00336, Not Rated), and Fujian Sunner Development (00546, Not Rated) - Sugar substitutes: Related stocks Bolinbao (002286, Not Rated), Sanyuan Bio (301206, Not Rated), and Bailong Chuangyuan (605016, Not Rated) 3. Food packaging: Related stock Aorui Jin (002701, Not Rated) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy-driven financial tools [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in January 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of asset expansion in the banking sector, supported by a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, which is expected to stabilize net interest margins [25][26]. - It identifies two main investment themes: quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals and state-owned banks with defensive value [26]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In January 2026, social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1,654 billion yuan more than the previous year [9][10]. - The report notes that the increment in government bonds was significant, with an increase of 2,831 billion yuan, marking the highest level for January since 2020 [10]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of loans fell to 6.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 4.71 trillion yuan, which is 4,200 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. Deposit Growth and Monetary Aggregates - M1 and M2 growth rates showed a rebound, with M1 increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and M2 by 9.0% [21]. - The report states that new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate and non-bank deposits [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment lines: quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which are rated as stable [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading commercial entity in Xinjiang, focusing on the low-altitude economy and enhancing its retail capabilities through digital transformation and supply chain optimization [2][8]. - The company has a stable business structure with supermarkets and department stores as core segments, and it is responding to consumer demand by accelerating business transformation [8][9]. - The retail industry is entering a new development phase supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [8][48]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to be 2,494 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 30.8%, followed by a slight decline in 2024 to 2,409 million yuan [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 162 million yuan in 2023, with a significant growth of 203.1% [4]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.18 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.39 yuan in 2027, with a target price set at 12.09 yuan based on a 39x PE ratio for 2026 [4][8]. Company Overview - The company has been operating for 25 years, establishing itself as a leader in the Xinjiang retail market with a total of 5 shopping centers, 6 department stores, and 11 independent supermarkets, covering an area of over 1.07 million square meters [12][16]. - The company’s revenue structure shows that supermarkets contribute over 50% of total revenue, while department store revenue has decreased significantly due to changes in accounting standards [27][25]. - The management team has extensive experience in the industry, with a stable shareholding structure that supports long-term strategic planning [20][23]. Market and Policy Environment - Recent government policies have focused on enhancing domestic demand, positioning the retail sector as a key area for economic recovery [48][49]. - The company is leveraging its regional advantages and adapting to market changes by implementing AI-driven management systems and exploring low-altitude economic opportunities [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading commercial entity in Xinjiang, focusing on the low-altitude economy and retail sector [2][8]. - The company has a stable business structure with supermarkets and department stores as core components, and it is responding to consumer demand by accelerating business transformation and enhancing supply chain management [8][9]. - The report predicts a positive trend in profitability, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.18, 0.31, and 0.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and a target price of 12.09 yuan based on a 39 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 [8][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company's financial information for 2023 to 2027 shows projected revenue growth, with 2023 revenue at 2,494 million yuan, expected to decline slightly in 2024 to 2,409 million yuan, and then gradually increase to 2,746 million yuan by 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to rise significantly from 199 million yuan in 2023 to 243 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong recovery in profitability [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to follow a similar trend, increasing from 162 million yuan in 2023 to 183 million yuan in 2027 [4]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in net profit margin, projected to rise from 2.4% in 2024 to 6.7% in 2027, indicating improved operational efficiency [4][8]. Company Overview - The company has been operating for 25 years, establishing itself as a leader in the Xinjiang retail market with a diverse portfolio including shopping centers, department stores, and supermarkets [12][16]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 5 shopping centers, 6 department stores, and 11 independent supermarkets, covering a total area of over 1.07 million square meters [16][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the founder maintaining significant control, which contributes to consistent management and strategic direction [20][23]. Market and Policy Environment - The retail industry is entering a new development phase supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with the company positioned to benefit from these trends [48][49]. - The report notes that the retail sector is a key focus for stimulating domestic demand, with expectations for improved performance as supportive policies are implemented [48][49]. - The company is also leveraging advancements in AI and low-altitude economy initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and supply chain capabilities [8][9].