尽管白酒行业尚未脱离深度调整，但泸州老窖（000568）通过一系列战略调整，交出了一份韧性增长的 成绩单，2024年实现营收311.96亿元、同比增长3.19%，实现净利润134.73亿元、同比增长1.71%；2025 年一季报，泸州老窖实现营业收入93.52亿元，同比增长1.78%；实现净利润45.93亿元，同比增长 0.41%，均实现了收入与净利润双增。 在业绩持续增长的同时，泸州老窖的现金流表现充沛，2024年经营活动产生的现金流量净额为191.8亿 元，同比增长80.14%，这也体现了泸州老窖业务运营的健康度。 从具体产品结构看，泸州老窖高端化进程持续提速，全年中高档酒类收入275.9亿元，同比增长2.77%， 毛利率也保持稳定。 2024年，国窖1573成功跻身200亿超级大单品阵营，夯实了中国高端白酒三强的市场地位，泸州老窖品 牌体量也突破100亿元。 近年来，泸州老窖的稳健表现，与管理团队成功构建清晰聚焦的"双品牌、三品系、大单品"品牌体系有 关，国窖1573品牌提升和泸州老窖品牌复兴工程成果显著。其中，国窖1573以活窖池、活技艺"活态双 国宝"的核心资源优势，稳居中国三大超高端白酒品牌之一； ...

编号：2025-4-29 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 ★分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 股东大会交流 | | 参与单位名称及 | 天风证券：张潇倩；高盛：刘晔；东吴证券：孙瑜；中金公司： | | | 屈宁；广发证券：周源；国泰海通证券：李梓梧等共计 208 人。 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 15:30-16:30 | | 地点 | 线上 | | 上市公司接待人 | | | 员姓名 | 王川、赵亮、姜通 | | | 1.公司一季度销售情况 近年来，公司以高质量发展为导向，全力推进"数智泸州老窖" 建设，保证渠道良性和价盘稳定，力争赢得长周期产业价值回报和企 | | | 业的可持续发展。一季度公司依托数字化营销体系，积极推动消费者 "开瓶"，保证价盘稳定和渠道健康，全国范围内库存水平良性，主 | | | 要大单品销售稳健，动销优于回款表现。 | | | 2.公司今年总体营销思路 | | | 公司管理层提出 6 大思 ...

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS April 27, 2025 02:38 PM GMT Luzhou Lao Jiao Co. Ltd | Asia Pacific 2024/1Q25 Results in Line; Dividend Policy Announced Reaction to earnings Key Takeaways Revenue by price segment: Mid-high end liquor sales rose 3% yoy (88.4% of liquor sales) and low-end liquor sales increased 6% yoy in 2024. Margin trends: OPM declined 1.0ppt yoy in 1Q25, with narrowed GPM on a lower product ...

[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 Q1 业绩正增，全年基调稳中求进 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年度与 2025Q1 业绩报告。2024 年公司实现营收 311.96 亿元，同比+3.19%；归母/扣非归母净利 134.73/134.00 亿，同比+1.71% /+1.89%。2024Q4 营收 68.93 亿，同比-16.86%；归母/扣非归母净利 18.80/18.35 亿，同比-29.86%/-31.03%。2025Q1 营收 93.52 亿，同比 +1.78%；归母/扣非归母净利 45.93/45.95 亿，同比+0.41%/+0.94%。 点评： 中高档酒产品结构下移与市场投入加大使得均价承压，阶段性停货保 障合理渠道库存。分档次看，2024 年中高档/其他酒类收入分别为 275.85/34.67 亿，同比+2.77%/+7.15%。中高档酒销量/均价分别同比 +14.39%/-10.15%，量增价减主要系国窖维持低速增长、特曲 60 版增速 快于国窖，同时公司加大扫码红包、促销等投入冲减了部分收入。其他 酒类量/ ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 经营稳中求进，加大股东回报 ——泸州老窖（000568.SZ）2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：泸州老窖发布 2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报，24 年实现总营收 311.96 亿元、同比增长 3.19%，归母净利润 134.73 亿元、同比增长 1.71%。25Q1 总 营收 93.52 亿元、同比增加 1.78%，归母净利润 45.93 亿元、同比增加 0.41%。 公司 24 年拟每 10 股派发现金 45.92 元（含税），预计 24 年度累计现金分红总 额 87.58 亿元（含税）、对应分红率约 65%。公司同时发布 2024-26 年股东分 红回报规划，2024-26 年现金分红率不低于 65%/70%/75%，且不低于人民币 85 亿元（含税），每年度可进行两次现金分红。 24 年着眼长期发展，主动调控下收入增速放缓。1）公司 24 年着眼长期发展， 营收增长有所降速，产品端，24 年中高档酒类/其他酒类营收为 275.85/34.67 亿元，同比增加 2.77%/7.15%，分量价看，24 年中高档酒类销量/均价分别同 比+ ...

白酒行业调整期的压力传导至头部企业，泸州老窖2024年业绩增速下降。 过去财年中，泸州老窖全年实现营收311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%，净利润134.73亿元，同比增长 1.71%，增速较2023年的双位数增速明显放缓。进入2025年一季度，公司营收93.52亿元，同比增长 1.78%，净利润45.93亿元，同比微增0.41%，延续了低速增长态势。 2024年，白酒行业上市公司整体告别高增长，转而在经营上求稳，泸州老窖的业绩也反映出这一特征。 根据中国酒业协会发布的《2024中国白酒市场中期研究报告》，超过60%的经销商和终端零售商反映库 存同比增加。2025年3月的公开发言中，中国酒业协会指出，酒类去库存周期至今尚未扭转，行业仍需 主动降低增长预期，调整发展节奏。 对于行业所面临的库存去化问题，泸州老窖也自4月下旬起开始全线停货，通过控量的方式主动调节市 场。 "国窖1573"和"泸州老窖"是企业两大主要经营品牌，其中国窖品牌销售额约为200亿元、泸州老窖品牌 超100亿元。 公司将主营产品分为中高档酒类和其他酒类，中高档酒类指含税销售价格≥150元/瓶的产品，主要包括 国窖1573、泸州老窖特曲、百年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit of approximately 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase, demonstrating resilience amid macroeconomic challenges and industry adjustments [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company maintained a strong financial position with total assets of 68.335 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, and net assets of 47.389 billion yuan, up 14.5% [3]. - Cash reserves reached 33.578 billion yuan, an increase of 8.14%, while operating cash flow net amount rose by 80.1% to 19.182 billion yuan [3]. - The debt-to-asset ratio remained stable at a low level of 30%, indicating strong risk resistance and operational health [3]. Dividend Policy - Luzhou Laojiao plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.759 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [4]. - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, focusing on high-quality development and maintaining brand stability [4]. Market Strategy - The company’s high-end brand strategy has been crucial for countering market risks and achieving growth despite increased competition [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao's mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated approximately 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.77% increase, contributing nearly 90% of total revenue [6]. - Other liquor products achieved revenue of 3.467 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.75% [7]. Brand Development - The company is enhancing its brand presence through cultural events and marketing strategies aimed at younger consumers, particularly targeting the Z generation [8]. - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on low-alcohol products and fruit wines to meet diverse consumer demands, showcasing a long-term potential for brand rejuvenation [8]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its channel structure, with traditional and emerging channels both showing revenue growth, and a gross margin exceeding 80% [12]. - Luzhou Laojiao's international revenue grew by 5.07%, supported by global marketing initiatives [12]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation across various operational aspects, enhancing market control and ensuring price stability [14]. Future Plans - For 2025, Luzhou Laojiao aims to further its digital initiatives, focusing on market expansion, channel development, and consumer engagement strategies [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is actively adjusting its distribution channels and accelerating digital transformation to support long-term growth [6] Performance Overview - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.77% and 7.15% [6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to the increase in mid-to-low-end product sales [6] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, with a reduction of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 31.914 billion yuan, 33.924 billion yuan, and 36.537 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 13.804 billion yuan, 14.813 billion yuan, and 16.154 billion yuan for the same years [9][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 9.38 yuan, 10.06 yuan, and 10.97 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 155.36 CNY, maintaining the rating [5][11]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through a significant cash dividend plan [2][10]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 31.196 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.473 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling 87.58 billion CNY over the year, representing approximately 65% of the net profit for 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 30.233 billion CNY in 2023 to 41.967 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.8% [4]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 87.5% to 88.6% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to range from 42.8% to 44.9% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 9.00 CNY in 2023 to 12.80 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.9 for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.8 by 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 28, 2025, was 125.6 CNY, with a 52-week high of 186.79 CNY and a low of 97.77 CNY [5]. - The company has experienced a relative performance decline of 28.69% over the past 12 months [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in 2024, with a focus on high-end product upgrades and digital marketing strategies to enhance brand influence and consumer engagement [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.89 billion, a decline of 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion, up 0.4% year-on-year [1]. Market and Product Development - The market size is steadily progressing, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 2.8% to 27.59 billion and sales volume rising by 14.4% to 43,000 tons in 2024 [1]. - The company’s brand, Guojiao, remains in the 20 billion category, while Luzhou Laojiao has surpassed the 10 billion mark [1]. - The company is transitioning to a digital marketing strategy, launching a five-code product to reshape consumer channels and promote sales through consumer engagement [1]. Brand Strategy and Cultural Engagement - The company is enhancing brand influence through various cultural activities centered around the theme "700 Years of Chinese Strong Aroma," leveraging major events like the Olympics and the 60th anniversary of Sino-French diplomatic relations [2]. - In 2024, Guojiao 1573 was listed among the top 10 most valuable Chinese brands by Hurun [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is adopting a pragmatic approach to growth, focusing on high-quality development and stabilizing channel dynamics and pricing [2]. - The 2025 operational goal is to achieve steady revenue growth, with a projected EPS of 9.36, 10.34, and 11.21 for 2025-2027 [2].