Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.19% and 1.71% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with year-on-year decreases of 16.86% and 29.86% respectively [3]. - The company adheres to a "dual brand, three product lines, and major products" strategy, with a focus on high-end liquor. The revenue from liquor operations reached 31.053 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 87.62%, showing a slight decline [4]. - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring that cash dividends will account for at least 65% of net profit for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, with a minimum total of 8.5 billion yuan in cash dividends each year [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 31.883 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.753 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 2.2% [9][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 87.54%, with a slight decline expected in the following years [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The high-end liquor segment generated 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, while other liquor products contributed 3.467 billion yuan. The high-end segment saw a volume increase of 14.39% but a price decrease of 10.15% [4]. - The company’s revenue from traditional and emerging channels was 29.573 billion yuan and 1.479 billion yuan respectively, showing growth in both areas [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 6.8 billion yuan for 2024, alongside a previously implemented 2 billion yuan interim dividend, meeting the 65% payout ratio requirement [8]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 4.75%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 311.96 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 87.54% and 43.19%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a total cash dividend of 87.58 billion yuan in 2024 [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 68.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a net profit of 18.80 billion yuan in Q4 2024, down 29.86% year-on-year [4] - The sales revenue for 2024 is expected to be 400.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.74% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is projected to be 275.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company anticipates a total of 315.76 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, with a growth rate of 1.22% [9][11] Profitability Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 134.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 1.71% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The company aims for steady growth in revenue for 2025, with projected revenues of 31.576 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.22% [9] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a target of at least 65% of net profit distributed as dividends [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross profit margin of 87.54% and a net profit margin of 43.19%, with slight declines from the previous year [3] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total operating revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a significant increase in cash receipts, totaling 40.036 billion yuan for the year, up 26.74% year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company expects revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor to reach 27.585 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company reported a total of 1,701 domestic distributors and 85 overseas distributors by the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease in numbers [5] Earnings Forecast - The company projects net profit for 2025 to be 13.585 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.83% [11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing stable revenue growth but challenges in profit margins and channel collections [1][2][5]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 9.352 billion, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, while Q4 2024 revenue was 6.893 billion, a 16.9% decrease [1]. - For the year 2024, total revenue was 31.196 billion, reflecting a 3.2% increase [1]. - The product performance showed that the low-alcohol product segment outperformed high-alcohol products, which are still undergoing inventory adjustments [3]. Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 86.5%, primarily due to product mix changes [4]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 49.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced significantly by the decline in gross margin [4]. - For 2024, the gross margin was 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, with mid-to-high-end and other liquor margins also declining [4]. Financial Quality Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue plus contract liabilities decreased by 6.7%, and cash sales fell by 7.3%, indicating challenges in channel collections [5]. Dividend Policy Summary - The company announced a dividend plan for 2024-2026, with cash dividends not less than 65%/70%/75% of profits, and a minimum of 8.5 billion (including tax) each year, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. Investment Outlook - The company aims for steady progress in 2025, focusing on the stable development of its core product, Guojiao 1573, and deepening its market presence in Sichuan and North China [7]. - The company is expected to navigate the industry adjustment cycle smoothly [8]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 32.345 billion, 33.968 billion, and 36.605 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.0%, and 7.8% respectively [10]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 13.815 billion, 14.792 billion, and 16.193 billion, with growth rates of 2.5%, 7.1%, and 9.5% respectively [10].

长江商报记者发现，自2015年开始，泸州老窖营业收入和净利润已连续10年实现"双增"。2024年，泸州 老窖中高档酒类实现营业收入275.85亿元，同比增长2.77%，占营业收入比例达88.43%。 长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 黄聪 泸州老窖（000568.SZ）迎来业绩10年增长期。 4月27日晚间，泸州老窖发布年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%；净利润 134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%，均创历史新高。 在回馈投资者方面，2024年，泸州老窖先后两次分红，累计现金分红总额为87.58亿元（含税），占 2024年归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例约为65%。 中高档酒类毛利率91.85% 2024年，是泸州老窖浓香开源700周年，公司业绩保持增长。 4月27日晚间，泸州老窖发布年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%；净利润 134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%，均创历史新高。 长江商报记者发现，自2015年开始，泸州老窖营业收入和净利润已连续10年实现"双增"。 年报显示，2024年，泸州老窖酒类营业收入达310.53亿元，同比增长3. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][4] - The company has set a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65%/70%/75% of net profit for each year [1] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, which is expected to enhance internal management efficiency and eventually lead to revenue growth as the consumer-centric model is established [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] Product and Market Analysis - The sales of the Guojiao brand exceeded 20 billion yuan, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company is actively expanding both traditional and new sales channels, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 4.2% respectively in 2024 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for liquor business decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the payment price for Guojiao [2] - The company managed to maintain a good level of expense management, with the tax rate and sales expense ratio showing slight increases [2][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 31.7 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, and 35.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.7%, 5.2%, and 6.4% [4][11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.6 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.5%, and 7.1% [4][11]

公 司 报 告 目标稳中求进，分红回馈股东 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:125.36元 食品饮料 2025年04月28日 泸州老窖(000568.SZ) 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】泸州老窖（000568.SZ）*季报点评*调 整释放压力，轻装稳步前进*推荐20241031 【平安证券】泸州老窖（000568.SZ）*半年报点评* 主动调整，稳重求进*推荐20240830 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 事项： 泸州老窖发布2024年年报与2025年1季报。2024年公司实现营收312亿元，同 比+3.2%，归母净利135亿元，同比+1.7%，其中4Q24实现营收69亿元，同 比-16.9%，归母净利19亿元，同比-29.9%。1Q25公司实现营收94亿元，同比 +1.8%，归母净利46亿元，同比+0.4%。公司2024年拟每10股派发现金红利 45.92元（含税），全年拟累计现金分红88亿，分红比例65%。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMEN ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 28 日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 报表压力释放，分红略超预期 消费品/食品饮料 酒行业伴随着经济增速的换挡，进入到新旧动能转化的发展阶段，公司以中长 期高质量发展为导向，24 年放弃 15%的增长目标，以渠道健康度为首要任务， 报表压力如期释放。25 年稳中求进，同时积极提升分红比例以回报股东，当前 股价对应 25-26 年股息率分别为 5.3%、6%，安全边际充分，重申"强烈推荐"。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标股价：159 元 当前股价：125.36 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1472 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1469 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 184.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 184.2 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 34.1 | | ROE（TTM） | 26.9 | | 资产负债率 | 24.7% | | 主要股东 泸州老窖集团有限责任公司 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 25.89% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6 -6 -27 相对表现 -2 ...

4月27日晚间，泸州老窖披露了2024年财报，尽管营收净利双双增长，但远远未达到预定的目标。 2024年，泸州老窖实现营业收入 311.96 亿元，同比增长 3.19%；实现归母净利润 134.73 亿元，同比增长 1.71%。 在财报中，泸州老窖直言不讳：未完成董事会于年初提出的"实现营业收入同比增长不低于 15%"的目标。 业绩未达标，管理层降薪在所难免。2024年度，董事长刘淼的薪酬为136.91万元，总经理林锋的薪酬为135.2万元，均比上年降低了约29万元。 对于2025年的目标，泸州老窖在财报中并未明确表示，只是称"营业收入稳中求进"。 但这样缺乏明确数字的表述，是否会被经销商和投资者解读为更多的不确定性？ 董事长总经理大幅降薪 计划赶不上变化！ 计划是营收增长15%，结果只实现了增长3.19%，泸州老窖远远未达到董事会制定的业绩目标。 泸州老窖称，未完成业绩目标的主要原因在于：近年来，酒类消费供需结构出现了明显的转移和分化，酒类消费市场进入到存量期，酒业伴随着经济增速 的换挡，进入到新旧动能转化的发展阶段。 其他大部分高管的薪酬也有不同幅度的下降。财务总监谢红从129.9万元降低到109.3万元 ...

泸州老窖（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000568） 公司点评 稳中求进，静待修复 ——泸州老窖 24 年报&25Q1 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-04-28 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 125.36 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 186.79/97.77 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,472 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,469 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.82 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,845 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,842 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -55% -35% -14% 7% 27% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 泸州老窖 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 执业证书号：S0010124040001 主要观点： ⚫ 利润：结构扰动 ⚫ 报 ...