WLY(000858) 东方证券·2025-04-29 06:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 139.84 CNY, maintaining the rating based on the current valuation levels [2][10][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 36.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion CNY, up 5.80% year-on-year. The main brand's revenue grew by 8.07% to 67.88 billion CNY, while series liquor revenue increased by 11.79% to 15.25 billion CNY [9]. - The potential of channel reform is underestimated, with a flat organizational structure enhancing market responsiveness. The company added 16,000 core terminals in 2024 and increased the number of specialty stores from 1,662 to 1,786 [9]. - The company achieved a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2024, aligning with its commitment to shareholder returns, and aims to enhance market share in 2025 [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards, while gross margin and sales expense ratios have been revised upwards. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 8.74 CNY, 9.63 CNY, and 10.39 CNY respectively [2][10]. - The company’s reasonable valuation level is estimated at a 16x P/E ratio for 2025, corresponding to the target price of 139.84 CNY [2][10]. - The financial performance metrics indicate a projected revenue of 93.90 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3].