MELCO INT'L DEV(00200) 东吴证券国际·2024-08-19 07:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's total gaming revenue for Q2 2024 reached USD 1.21 billion, recovering to 74.5% of the level seen in Q2 2019. The Macau properties generated USD 1.05 billion, recovering to 69.6% of the same period in 2019 [2][3] - The company has taken measures to enhance liquidity, including debt extensions and bond issuances, resulting in a cash reserve of USD 670 million for Macau and USD 1.3 billion at the group level, sufficient to meet the USD 300 million refinancing requirement due in July next year [2] - The average daily operating expenses in Q2 2024 increased to USD 2.9 million, primarily due to new hires and a 2.5% salary increase. It is expected that the annual average operating expenses will return to approximately USD 3 million as events and shows resume [3] - The company's Q2 2024 net revenue was USD 1.16 billion, aligning closely with market expectations, and recovering to 80.4% of Q2 2019 levels. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 300 million, slightly below market expectations [3] - The report revises the company's net income forecasts for 2024-2026 to HKD 37.62 billion, HKD 41.06 billion, and HKD 42.95 billion, respectively, and adjusts the adjusted EBITDA forecasts to HKD 9.69 billion, HKD 11.74 billion, and HKD 12.62 billion [3] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 29.53 billion, with expected growth rates of 179.5% in 2023, 27.4% in 2024, 9.1% in 2025, and 4.6% in 2026 [2][3] - The adjusted property EBITDA for 2023 is estimated at HKD 7.51 billion, with projections of HKD 9.69 billion in 2024, HKD 11.74 billion in 2025, and HKD 12.62 billion in 2026 [2][3] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.1, 5.9, and 5.5 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]