Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for JD Logistics (02618 HK) [17][22] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 863 45 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11 0%, with adjusted net profit reaching 31 2 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 1 14 billion yuan in the same period last year [17] - The company's Q2 adjusted net profit was 24 6 billion yuan, a 197% increase compared to 8 3 billion yuan in Q2 2023 [17] - External customer revenue grew by 11 2%, with revenue from integrated supply chain customers increasing by 2 7% and other external customer revenue rising by 14 5% [17] - Cost control measures were effective, with Q2 costs increasing by only 3 5%, leading to a gross profit increase from 3 4 billion yuan to 5 3 billion yuan and a gross margin improvement from 8 3% to 11 9% [17] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from JD Group was 264 billion yuan, up 10 7%, while external customer revenue was 599 billion yuan, up 11 2% [17] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue was 154 billion yuan, with the number of customers increasing by 5 9% to 64,400, although average revenue per customer decreased slightly from 247,000 yuan to 239,000 yuan [17] - Revenue from other external customers was 445 billion yuan, with Deppon Logistics, a subsidiary, contributing 184 billion yuan, up 17 5% [17] Cost Control and Efficiency - Q2 cost growth was limited to 3 5%, primarily due to a reduction in outsourcing costs from 14 5 billion yuan to 14 0 billion yuan [17] - Employee compensation increased by 13 1% to 15 1 billion yuan, while other costs such as rent and depreciation remained stable [17] - Efficiency improvements were driven by optimized warehouse network layout, enhanced automation, and better vehicle scheduling through algorithmic optimization [17] Financial Projections - The report forecasts JD Logistics' net profit under international financial reporting standards to be 3 59 billion yuan in 2024, 4 39 billion yuan in 2025, and 5 19 billion yuan in 2026 [17] - Revenue growth is expected to be 12 24% in 2024, 9 36% in 2025, and 8 38% in 2026 [19] - Net profit growth is projected at 483 41% in 2024, 22 20% in 2025, and 18 25% in 2026 [19] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 88 14 in 2023 to 16 23 in 2024, 13 28 in 2025, and 11 23 in 2026 [19] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 1 21 in 2023 to 1 13 in 2024, 1 05 in 2025, and 0 97 in 2026 [19] Industry Context - The logistics and transportation industry is expected to see marginal improvements, with high-dividend stocks likely to remain strong [24] - The report highlights the importance of price and service differentiation in the competitive logistics market [24]
京东物流：成本管控卓有成效，Q2业绩超预期