HIKVISION(002415) 国元证券·2024-08-21 00:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision, indicating expected stock performance to outperform the benchmark index by more than 15% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - Hikvision's business continues to develop steadily, with innovative business segments growing rapidly. The company reported a total revenue of 41.209 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.13% to 5.064 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 4.11% to 5.243 billion yuan [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Hikvision achieved total revenue of 41.209 billion yuan, up 9.68% year-on-year. The gross profit margin remained stable at 45.05%. Domestic revenue from three business groups (BG) totaled 18.971 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.26%. The overseas business generated revenue of 11.441 billion yuan, an increase of 15.46%, while innovative business revenue reached 10.328 billion yuan, growing by 26.13% [2][3]. Business Segments - The report highlights a shift in revenue structure within the domestic market, with the public security sector's contribution to PBG revenue declining. However, traffic management and government business revenues are increasing. The EBG business continues to grow in various sectors, while overseas revenue is primarily driven by developing countries, which now contribute approximately 70% of international sales [3][4]. Research and Development - Hikvision has increased its R&D investment to 5.698 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 7.81%. Innovative business now accounts for 25% of total revenue, with significant market presence in various verticals. The company aims to enhance its competitive edge in scene digitalization [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Hikvision's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 98.085 billion, 107.253 billion, and 116.664 billion yuan, respectively. The adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 15.268 billion, 16.973 billion, and 18.689 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.65, 1.84, and 2.02 yuan per share. The projected P/E ratios are 16.15, 14.53, and 13.20 times [5][10].