Vipshop(VIPS) 国泰君安·2024-08-22 05:39Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [2] Core Views - External consumption environment and competition impact led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-26 to 9/9.6/10 billion RMB, with growth rates of -6/7/5% respectively [2] - Q2 revenue and membership metrics fell short of expectations, but SVIP performance was strong [2] - GMV: 50.6 billion RMB, flat YoY [2] - Active members: 44.3 million, down 2.9% YoY [2] - Orders: 197.8 million, down 7.5% YoY [2] - SVIP members: 7.4 million, up 11% YoY, contributing 47% of online consumption [2] - Core financial metrics: [2] - Revenue: 26.88 billion RMB, down 3.7% YoY, within guidance range (26.5-27.9 billion RMB) [2] - Non-GAAP net profit: 2.17 billion RMB, down 9.8% YoY [2] - Gross margin: 23.6%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY [2] - Non-GAAP net margin: 8.1%, down 0.5 percentage points YoY [2] - Q3 guidance is cautious, with revenue expected to be 26.5-27.9 billion RMB, down 10-5% YoY [2] - The company completed a 1 billion in the next 24 months [2] - Plans to use over 75% of 2024 Non-GAAP net profit for repurchases or dividends, equivalent to approximately 14.9% of the latest market cap [2] Business Strategy - Continues to enhance SVIP services by enriching differentiated product offerings and increasing exclusive promotional events [2] - Introduced over 600 new well-known brands to meet evolving consumer demands [2] - Deepened cooperation with nearly 200 brands in customized products, with Q2 customized product GMV growing over 140% and higher repurchase rates compared to similar products [2] - Super Brand Day and Super Category Day overall performance grew over 49% [2] - Plans to add 4-20 new outlet stores by the end of the year, with Q2 outlet performance continuing to show strength [2] Financial Summary - Revenue (billion RMB): 101.9 (2020A), 117.1 (2021A), 103.2 (2022A), 112.9 (2023A), 108.2 (2024E), 114.8 (2025E), 119.4 (2026E) [5] - Revenue growth (%): 10 (2020A), 15 (2021A), -12 (2022A), 9 (2023A), -4 (2024E), 6 (2025E), 4 (2026E) [5] - Gross profit (billion RMB): 21.3 (2020A), 23.1 (2021A), 21.6 (2022A), 25.7 (2023A), 24.9 (2024E), 26.5 (2025E), 27.7 (2026E) [5] - Net profit (billion RMB): 5.9 (2020A), 4.7 (2021A), 6.3 (2022A), 8.1 (2023A), 7.7 (2024E), 8.2 (2025E), 8.5 (2026E) [5] - Net profit growth (%): 63 (2020A), 60 (2021A), 68 (2022A), 95 (2023A), 90 (2024E), 96 (2025E), 100 (2026E) [5] Market Data - 52-week price range (USD): 19.05-11.56 [3] - Current shares outstanding (million): 107 [3] - Current market cap (billion USD): 6.3 [3]