Hengrui Pharma(600276) 中国银河·2024-08-22 12:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, reflecting a positive outlook on its future performance [2] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance was strong, with revenue reaching 7.603 billion yuan, a 33.95% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.063 billion yuan, a 92.94% YoY growth [1] - Innovation-driven revenue growth was robust, with innovative drug revenue reaching 6.612 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 33% YoY increase [1] - Internationalization efforts are progressing steadily, with significant licensing deals contributing to revenue growth, including a 1.1 billion USD upfront payment and potential milestone payments up to 5.725 billion USD [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 13.601 billion yuan, a 21.78% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.432 billion yuan, a 48.67% YoY growth [1] - R&D investment in H1 2024 was 3.86 billion yuan, with 3.038 billion yuan expensed [1] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 84.55% in 2023 to 91.73% by 2026 [5] Product Performance - Key innovative drugs such as Ruiweilu'an, Daerxili, and Henggeliezhin showed rapid growth after entering the national medical insurance catalog [1] - Adebelisumab, though not yet included in the national medical insurance, has been included in local惠民保 programs, contributing to revenue growth [1] - Established innovative drugs like Camrelizumab, Pyrotinib, and Apatinib continued to show sales growth due to new indications and clinical evidence [1] International Expansion - The company licensed its GLP-1 class innovative drugs (HRS-7535, HRS9531, HRS-4729) to Hercules in the US, receiving a 19.9% equity stake in Hercules [2] - A 160 million euro upfront payment from Merck for HRS-1167 and SHR-A1904 projects contributed to revenue growth [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 22.819 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.498 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 15.79% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.302 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.391 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.67 yuan in 2023 to 1.47 yuan by 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 62.73 in 2023 to 28.74 by 2026 [5] - PB ratio is projected to decrease from 6.67 in 2023 to 4.17 by 2026 [5] - PS ratio is anticipated to drop from 11.83 in 2023 to 7.60 by 2026 [5]