Xi'an Triangle Defense (300775) 民生证券·2024-08-24 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its position in the large forging sector and anticipated demand recovery [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 977 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.7% to 291 million yuan [2]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in performance, with revenue dropping by 45.8% year-on-year to 330 million yuan and net profit down by 59.5% to 82 million yuan, attributed to increased operating expenses [2]. - The company is actively investing in large-scale forging capabilities, establishing a joint venture with an investment of 900 million yuan to enhance its position as a key supplier in the aviation sector [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the gross margin decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 42.3%, and the net margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 29.8% [2]. - The company plans to achieve net profits of 900 million, 1.1 billion, and 1.22 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x [2][5]. - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.23 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.8% [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The establishment of the joint venture is expected to solidify the company's leading position in the large forging market, aligning with the anticipated recovery in demand for advanced aviation equipment [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the company's business extensions, reinforcing the recommendation to invest [2][4].