龙湖集团：多航道持续发展，积极应对行业变化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][7] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in core net profit by 28% in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 469 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year. The attributable net profit was 59 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2%. The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 48 billion yuan, down 27.9% [2][4][5] - The property development business faced challenges, with revenue dropping to 338 billion yuan, a 32% decline year-on-year. However, the operational and service revenue grew by 7% to 131 billion yuan, providing stable cash flow to mitigate the impact of the downturn in development business [2][4][5] - The company maintains a robust land reserve, with a total of 41.41 million square meters and an average land cost of 4,729 yuan per square meter. The high-quality land reserves account for 73% of the total area, representing 78% of the sales value [5][6][7] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards to 154.3 billion yuan and 139.8 billion yuan, respectively, due to the decline in the transfer scale. The attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are 11.4 billion yuan and 11.0 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan and 1.60 yuan [2][7][8] - The company's financial health is stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59% and a net debt ratio of 57%. The company has 501 billion yuan in cash and a total interest-bearing debt of 1,874 billion yuan [5][6][7] - The company operates 91 shopping malls with a total operational area of 8.29 million square meters, and the operational revenue for the first half of 2024 was 131 billion yuan, with service revenue growing by 11% [6][7]