Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Meilixin (301307) from "Strong Buy" to "Buy" with a target price of 22.2 RMB [1] Core Views - Meilixin's H1 2024 revenue reached 1.65 billion RMB, up 3% YoY, but net profit attributable to the parent company was -18 million RMB, a significant decline from 121 million RMB in H1 2023 [1] - The company's automotive business revenue grew 37% YoY to 1.02 billion RMB, while communication business revenue declined 34% YoY to 560 million RMB [1] - Meilixin faces pressure from structural changes, depreciation, raw material costs, and impairment losses, with Q2 2024 net profit margin at 2.8%, down 11.0 percentage points YoY [1] Business Performance Automotive Business - The automotive business benefited from increased wholesale volumes of 1.04 million units from customer B, up 43% YoY, while T China and T Global saw declines [1] - New energy vehicles bring additional aluminum casting demand of 30-50kg per vehicle, worth 1,500-2,500 RMB per vehicle, driving the development of integrated die-casting [1] - Meilixin has advantages in large and medium-sized die-casting, with 8800T rear floor and battery pack already in production, and is developing a 13000T dual-chamber super-large body mold for Chery [1] Communication Business - Domestic 5G penetration is high, with 270,000 new 5G base stations added in both Q1 and Q2 2024 [1] - Global 5G penetration varies, with North America at 61%, Northeast Asia at 41%, GCC at 34%, and Western Europe at 25%, while other regions are mostly below 10% [1] - The company has a first-mover advantage in 5G base station structural cooling technology and is partnered with the top two global 5G base station equipment leaders [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.19 billion RMB in 2023 to 4.80 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.6% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 46 million RMB in 2024, 129 million RMB in 2025, and 186 million RMB in 2026 [2] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 12.4% in 2024 to 14.9% in 2026 [3] Valuation - The report values Meilixin at 1.41x PB for 2024, corresponding to the target price of 22.2 RMB [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 79x in 2024 to 20x in 2026 as earnings improve [2]
美利信：2024年中报点评：业绩承压，静待新订单放量