Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 雅生活服务 (3319 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 3.20, indicating a potential upside of 18.5% from the current closing price of HKD 2.70 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a significant loss for the first half of 2024, estimated between RMB 1.54 billion to RMB 1.70 billion, compared to a net profit of RMB 840 million in the same period of 2023. This loss is attributed to a sharp decline in revenue and profit from value-added services and a substantial impairment provision of approximately RMB 2.7 billion to RMB 2.9 billion for trade receivables from related parties [1][2]. - Revenue growth for the first half of 2024 is projected to be below 10%, influenced by slow sales and deliveries from the parent company 雅居乐 and another major shareholder 绿地. The full-year revenue growth is anticipated to be around 5% [2][3]. - The gross margin is expected to slightly decline, with the contribution from value-added services continuing to decrease, projected to account for only 4% of total revenue in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.379 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%. However, the core profit for 2023 is expected to drop significantly to RMB 1.552 billion, reflecting a 30.3% decline [3][7]. - The forecast for core earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease to RMB 0.72 in 2024, down from RMB 1.09 in 2023, with a further decline expected in 2025 before a modest recovery in 2026 [3][7]. - The company maintains a net cash position of RMB 3.95 billion at the end of 2023, which is 1.1 times its market capitalization, providing a buffer against market volatility [2][3].
雅生活服务：上半年业绩预览：增长放缓，利润率有望将触底，下调目标价