荣泰健康：Q2内外销需求波动，期待经营改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.12 CNY for the next six months, based on a 12x PE ratio for 2024 [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 820 million CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 7.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 110 million CNY, an increase of 6.1% year-over-year. In Q2 2024, the revenue was 420 million CNY, down 15.8% year-over-year, and the net profit was 50 million CNY, down 27.9% year-over-year. The report indicates that domestic consumer sentiment remains weak, and overseas orders have been affected by rising shipping costs, leading to short-term operational pressure [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q2 revenue showed a decline, with domestic sales affected by low consumer confidence and a year-over-year drop of 32.3% in online sales across major platforms. Internationally, demand varied by region, with some markets like Korea recovering while others like the US faced challenges due to increased shipping costs [1]. - The Q2 net profit margin was 11.5%, down 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased expense ratios and reduced revenue leading to diminished economies of scale. The gross margin also decreased by 2.3 percentage points year-over-year [1][7]. - Operating cash flow for Q2 was 110 million CNY, a decrease of 25.0% year-over-year, attributed to reduced sales volume [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to improve its domestic sales channels and expand its overseas market presence, which could lead to a recovery in revenue growth. EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.26 CNY, 1.49 CNY, and 1.73 CNY respectively [2][9]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are expected to be 1.8% in 2024, 14.9% in 2025, and 13.3% in 2026, indicating a gradual recovery [9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios are 13.7 for 2022, 11.1 for 2023, and 10.0 for 2024, suggesting a decreasing trend in valuation multiples as earnings are expected to grow [9][10]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 10.9% in 2023 to 12.6% in 2026, reflecting anticipated operational efficiencies and revenue growth [9].