Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a 12-month target price of 105.59 CNY, corresponding to a 50x PE for 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic replacement of dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearings, with a strong focus on both domestic and international markets. The financial structure has been continuously optimized, with significant improvements in profitability and a reduction in debt levels post-IPO [1][4]. - The dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearing market is expected to grow significantly, driven by high demand in nuclear power, gas turbines, and wind energy sectors. The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its competitive advantages and the conservative strategies of foreign competitors [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 2003, the company has established itself as a leader in the domestic replacement of high-end sliding bearings, achieving significant breakthroughs in key sectors such as nuclear power and marine applications. The company has developed over 200 specialized sliding bearing products [13]. - The core team is stable, with the founder holding a significant stake in the company, which enhances operational vitality. The team includes experienced professionals with extensive industry backgrounds [18][19]. 2. Market Potential - The global market for dynamic pressure oil film sliding bearings is projected to reach approximately 3.62 billion USD by 2026, with the Chinese market expected to be around 6.72 billion CNY. The growth is supported by trends in industrial drive, energy generation, and the increasing size of machinery [2][37]. - The company benefits from a favorable competitive landscape, as foreign competitors are adopting conservative growth strategies, providing more opportunities for domestic players [2][3]. 3. Business Development - The company is focusing on innovation and collaboration with foreign experts to enhance its product offerings. The shift towards international markets is evident, with an increasing proportion of revenue and improved gross margins from overseas clients [3][4]. - New business segments, including gas turbine bearings and PEEK bearings, are expected to contribute to revenue growth, with projections indicating continued market share expansion [3][4]. 4. Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 6.19 billion CNY in 2025 to 9.00 billion CNY in 2027, with net profits projected to increase from 1.35 billion CNY to 2.30 billion CNY during the same period. The company maintains a strong net profit margin and return on equity [5][4]. - The financial structure has improved significantly post-IPO, with a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio to 14.0% in 2024, and all interest-bearing debts have been repaid [35].

2026 年 02 月 13 日 机械 商业航天专题三：关注 3D 打印全产业 链+关键结构件发展机遇 商业航天蓬勃发展，全球竞相布局低轨卫星资源 根据蓝箭航天引用美国航天基金会 2025 年发布的《航天报告》，2015 年至 2024 年全球商业航天呈逐年快速增长趋势，年均复合增长率为 7.7%。当前可重复使用、液体燃料火箭技术路线逐步确立，可重复使 用火箭从发射成本和飞行频率来看相较一次性更优，而液体燃料火箭 得益于更强的运载能力而主导市场。由于低轨资源有限且具有"先占 先得"的特征，全球竞相布局低轨卫星资源。据新华网引用国际电信 联盟（ITU）官网，我国 2025 年 12 月向 ITU 申请了超过 20 万颗卫星 的频轨资源，标志着卫星频轨资源申请已上升至国家战略层面。一颗 低轨卫星的平均寿命大约 5 年，首批发射卫星已经逐步进入更新替 换周期，卫星的更新替换也带动对卫星生产及运载的需求。 证券研究报告 | | | | 首选股票 目标价（元） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业表现 | | | | 机械 沪深300 | | | | 50% | | | | 40% | | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a high probability of style switching in A-shares around the Spring Festival, with a historical tendency for value and large-cap stocks to dominate before the festival, while growth and small-cap stocks tend to perform better afterward [1][8][23] - From 2010 to 2025, there were only two years (2020 and 2022) without a clear switch between growth and value styles, indicating a strong historical pattern of style rotation [8][18] - The report identifies that in 62.5% of the years analyzed, there was a significant switch from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the Spring Festival, suggesting a high likelihood of this trend continuing [1][8] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the sectors leading in performance before the Spring Festival often do not repeat their success in the following month, indicating a high probability of sector rotation [2][8] - The report notes that in years where value stocks led after the Spring Festival (2011, 2016, 2021), there were common factors such as liquidity tightening or unexpected risk events that suppressed growth stocks [2][23] - The macro environment in 2015 and 2019, characterized by ample liquidity and weak fundamentals, is compared to the upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting potential for similar market dynamics [2][3] Group 3 - The report assesses that the current market style is shifting towards value before the 2026 Spring Festival, with technology and growth stocks receding [3][4] - It suggests that if the value style continues post-festival, it will be driven by expectations of domestic economic recovery and policy support, although there are concerns regarding inflation metrics [3][4] - The analysis indicates that the performance of small-cap stocks is expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival, driven by liquidity recovery and risk appetite [18][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 9.8 CNY over the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 4.21 to 6.32 million CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 85% to 90% [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to industry pressures and insufficient recovery in core consumption scenarios, leading to an anticipated revenue drop of up to 13% for the year [2]. - The company is focusing on product iteration and channel development, targeting the mass consumer market with new product launches and enhancing brand engagement through marketing initiatives [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of over 211 million CNY for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of less than 21.14% [1]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -13.0%, 4.5%, and 7.1%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -94.5%, 765.6%, and 97.6% [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from broad campaigns to targeted empowerment, utilizing events and promotions to strengthen consumer connections and drive sales [3]. - New product lines, such as the 28-degree lemon-flavored and 43-degree sherry barley wines, are aimed at capturing younger consumers and expanding the customer base [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company is expected to leverage its established brand and market presence to increase market share as the industry recovers [4]. - The company is also making strides in international markets, with its Tashi barley wine entering trial sales in the U.S. Costco [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, with a 6-month target price of 95.84 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 86.31 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company, Haomai Technology, is a leader in the tire mold industry and has diversified into large castings, CNC machine tools, and electric heating vulcanizers, benefiting from the synergy between casting and machining [1][17]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.0% in revenue and 18.3% in net profit from 2008 to 2024, demonstrating resilience across economic cycles [1][38]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its tire mold business due to the increasing capital expenditures of domestic tire manufacturers and the expansion of overseas production [2]. - The large component machinery segment is poised to benefit from the favorable market conditions in gas turbines and wind power, with significant capacity expansions planned [3]. - The CNC machine tool business is focusing on high-end five-axis machines, showing rapid growth with a projected revenue increase of 145.1% in the first half of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haomai Technology started in the tire mold industry and has expanded into castings, CNC machine tools, and electric heating vulcanizers, establishing a long-term growth trajectory [17]. - The company has a global market share of over 30% in tire molds as of 2025, supported by strong R&D capabilities and cost advantages [2][17]. Tire Molds - The tire mold segment is a critical low-value consumable in the tire industry, with high demand for supplier know-how and brand reputation [2]. - The company has seen high growth in its tire mold business due to the rapid iteration of tire products and increased capital spending by tire manufacturers [2]. Large Component Machinery - The large component machinery business focuses on castings for wind power and gas turbines, benefiting from strong demand in North America and planned capacity expansions [3]. - The company is set to increase its casting capacity significantly, with new projects underway [3]. CNC Machine Tools - The company is concentrating on high-end five-axis machine tools, with a comprehensive product line that includes vertical and horizontal machining centers [4]. - The CNC machine tool segment is experiencing rapid growth, with revenues expected to reach 5.1 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, marking a 145.1% year-on-year increase [4]. Vulcanizers - The electric heating vulcanizer segment is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for efficient and environmentally friendly tire production methods [11]. - The global market for vulcanizers is projected to grow from 1.238 billion USD in 2024 to 1.629 billion USD by 2031 [11]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 110.1 billion CNY, 135.4 billion CNY, and 161.4 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 24.6 billion CNY, 30.7 billion CNY, and 35.3 billion CNY [12]. - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in market share and profitability across all business segments [12].

2026 年 02 月 09 日 明月镜片(301101.SZ) 主业高增夯实基础， 受益 AI 眼镜增长红利 25Q3 主营业务高增亮眼，多元合作赋能发展 2025Q3 公司主营业务表现优异，PMC 超亮系列收入同比大增 53.7%， 三大明星产品收入在常规镜片中占比为 56.3%，轻松控系列通过高铁 场景化营销巩固了青少年近视防控领域的第一品牌心智，前三季度销 售额实现双位数增长。全新升级的 1.74 系列镜片销售同比增长 112.4%，首发的高端天玑系列则联合德国顶尖实验室完成精准光学设 计，进一步夯实了高端技术壁垒。与此同时，公司与中国航天签约成 为"中国航天事业合作伙伴"，并携手爱尔眼科开启深度战略合作。此 外，公司研发投入持续加码，前三季度研发费用同比增幅达 44.4%， 其中相当部分投入智能眼镜技术储备，足以覆盖未来智能眼镜需求。 作为小米 AI 眼镜的官方独家光学合作伙伴，相关业务收入已累计达 651 万元，反映了公司以技术创新与合作不断强化技术实力与品牌竞 争力。 998948011 小米 AI 眼镜合作成效显著，三大亮点提高业绩增量 2025 年 6 月，小米发布作为其旗下"人车家全生态" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The fertilizer market is entering a traditional demand peak with structural price increases expected due to the spring farming season, which accounts for approximately 45%-50% of annual fertilizer usage [1][7] - The chemical fiber industry is approaching its peak demand season, with low inventory varieties likely to show price elasticity [9][11] Summary by Sections Fertilizer Sector - Urea prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to increased demand from delayed planting and government policies aimed at boosting grain yields [7] - Phosphate fertilizer prices are supported by strong cost factors, with a forecast of continued high prices due to supply constraints and stable demand [8] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rise as supply remains tight, with a contract price of $348 per ton for 2026, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [8] Chemical Fiber Sector - The "golden March and silver April" period is a traditional peak for the chemical fiber industry, with downstream textile companies expected to increase procurement to meet seasonal demand [9] - Polyester filament production is being managed through coordinated reductions to improve profitability, with current inventory levels at historical lows [11] - Viscose staple fiber is experiencing high operating rates and low inventory, suggesting strong upward price potential [11] Overall Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical sector has seen a significant increase in attention due to a rebound in PPI and capital expenditure trends, with the industry valuation at a historical low [18][19] - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes, including upstream resource assets, supply-side optimization, low valuation leading companies, and new productivity investments [19][20][21][22]

- The report suggests that the market may enter a volatile phase and recommends a balanced allocation strategy for portfolio construction[1][7] - The recent market has shown a typical M-head pattern, which, according to technical analysis theory, indicates a minimum decline after the neckline, equivalent to the vertical distance from the head to the neckline[1][7] - The report uses wave theory to observe that this M-head may correspond to the end of a certain level of the 5-wave upward structure, suggesting that the market may continue to fluctuate and gradually digest adjustment pressure over time[1][7] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current bull market's rise time can be referenced against historical bull markets, suggesting that the current bull market may be in the mid-to-late stage[2][8] - The report notes that the recent market adjustment may be related to the continuous outflow of certain funds, which is showing signs of ending, and the overall moving average remains in a bullish arrangement[2][8] - The comprehensive trend factor of the cycle analysis model remains relatively stable, indicating that the market may maintain a high-level volatile pattern for a long time in the absence of new external forces[2][8]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with a target price set for leading stocks [4]. Core Views - The report highlights the continuous price increases in tantalum, rare earths, and tungsten, emphasizing the importance of sector allocation. The supply-demand imbalance for tantalum has been exacerbated by mining issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while tight supply for rare earths is driving prices up. Compliance in tungsten mining is becoming stricter, making price increases more likely. The long-term metal logic remains unchanged, with global new industrial chain development continuously driving metal demand, while supply constraints persist. A long-term weakening of the US dollar's credibility is anticipated [1]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on metals such as rare earths, copper, aluminum, tungsten, gold, silver, tin, lithium, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices experienced fluctuations, with COMEX gold closing at $4956.0 per ounce (+5.14%) and silver at $77.3 per ounce (-1.24%). China's gold reserves increased for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 7.419 million ounces, with a slight monthly increase of 40,000 ounces. The report suggests a continued bullish trend for gold prices in the medium to long term, driven by central bank and ETF purchases, despite short-term price corrections [2]. - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices saw a slight increase on the LME, closing at $13,060.0 per ton (+1.24%), while SHFE copper closed at 99,810 yuan per ton (-6.54%). Supply tightness continues, with a shift from discount to premium in spot copper prices. The report notes a stable demand from downstream enterprises, with copper rod and wire cable operating rates at 69.07% and 60.15%, respectively. The report remains optimistic about copper prices due to supply constraints [3]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, and Yunnan Copper [3]. Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to increased supply from new projects and rising social inventory, which increased by 54,000 tons to 83,600 tons. The report anticipates that aluminum prices may stabilize in the short term due to the upcoming Spring Festival, but supply constraints will persist in the medium to long term [3]. Tin - As of February 6, the main contract for tin on SHFE was priced at 366,450 yuan per ton, reflecting an 11.1% decrease. The report notes a decline in Indonesian tin exports and anticipates a continued upward trend in tin prices driven by demand from the electronics sector [8]. Energy Metals - Nickel prices faced significant selling pressure, with a weekly decline exceeding 9%. The report attributes this to macroeconomic sentiment shifts and high inventory levels. However, expectations of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia may provide medium to long-term support for nickel prices [9]. - Recommended stocks include Likin Resources, Huayou Cobalt, Greenmead, and Zhongwei New Materials [9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have been on the rise, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 770,000 yuan per ton (+4.1%). The report predicts stable demand growth and a potential new inventory replenishment cycle, supporting a bullish outlook for rare earth prices in 2026 [12]. - Recommended stocks include Shenghe Resources, Huahong Technology, Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The Indonesian government has significantly reduced coal production quotas for major miners by 40% to 70%, lowering the target from 790 million tons in 2025 to approximately 600 million tons in 2026 [2] - Due to the government's drastic production cut plan, some Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal export transactions, prioritizing long-term contract fulfillment [2] - The approval process for production quotas remains uncertain, leading miners to adjust their operations and maintain production at less than full capacity while awaiting clearer approvals [3] - The price of low-calorie Indonesian coal has shown strong support, with spot prices rising from $49-50 per ton on January 5 to over $52 per ton by February 5, indicating a robust short-term price outlook [3] - The report suggests that Australian coal may serve as a structural substitute for Indonesian coal, as the latter's market share is expected to decline due to supply-side reforms [3] Industry Performance - The coal industry has shown relative returns of 8.5% over one month, but a decline of 4.2% over three months and 7.5% over twelve months [6] - Absolute returns for the coal industry were 7.5% over one month, a decline of 3.3% over three months, and an increase of 15.6% over twelve months [6]