2025 财政政策更为积极，国常会核准 10 台核电机组，关注基建央企和核建 龙头 | | | 本周投资建议： 陈依凡 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450524080001 chenyf4@essence.com.cn 4 月 25 日，政治局会议召开，提出要坚持稳中求进总基调，加紧实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量 储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节；在基建资金方面，提出加快地方 政府专项债、超长期特别国债等发行使用，继续实施地方政府一揽子 化债政策，加快解决地方政府拖欠企业账款问题。 3 月基建投资环比提速，美国征收对等关税背景下，出口面临较大压 力，扩内需成为我国经济增长的重要支撑点，政治局会议提出要实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加 强超常规逆周期调节，基建政策/投资有望预期，叠加政府化债持续 推进，助力行业基本面边际改善。此外，基于发展战略角度，在"一带 一路"沿线国家的业务布局投入力度或加大，建筑行业多家头部企业 积极扩展国际化布局，海外工程建设释放市场需求增量。 4 月 ...

近两季收入增速逐季回升，看好空调旺季表现：2024Q4 格力主 营业务收入 YoY-18.6%，其他业务收入 YoY+71.8%，我们推断公司 主业表现主要受到空调出货节奏影响，而 2025Q1 主业收入或有明 显提升。近两季合并来看，2024Q4 和 2025Q1 的营收合计 839.5 亿元，YoY-1.6%，格力近两季收入表现较为平稳。我们推测，受 益于空调"以旧换新"补贴政策持续发力，近两季格力空调内销 出货同比恢复增长；公司不断拓展中东非、拉美等新兴市场，空 调外销或呈现较高增速。据产业在线数据显示，2024Q4 和 2025Q1 格力空调内销/外销合计出货量 YoY+4.5%/+20.0%。展望后续，国 补政策叠加销售旺季到来，有望明显提振空调销量表现，格力持 续完善渠道和品类布局，收入有望延续提升态势。 2024Q4 单季盈利能力显著提升：格力 2024Q4 归母净利率为 24.0%，创上市以来单季盈利能力新高，同比+5.8pct。格力盈利 能力显著提升，主要因为：1）受非主营业务影响，2024Q4 所得税 占收入比例同比-3.2pct，其他收益/投资收益占收入比例同比 +2.9pct/+1.4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 115.85 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [5][9]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q4 2024, with revenue of 6.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27.13%, and a net profit of 0.95 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 213.09% [1]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the semiconductor equipment sector, securing orders from leading domestic clients in both front-end and back-end equipment [2][3]. - The strategic investment from Northern Huachuang, which will become the largest shareholder with a 17.88% stake, is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the semiconductor industry [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.754 billion CNY, a slight increase of 2.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 203 million CNY, a decrease of 19.08% year-on-year [1][11]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.648 billion CNY, 3.429 billion CNY, and 4.183 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 339 million CNY, 493 million CNY, and 653 million CNY [9][11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, particularly in photoresist coating and developing products, with strong order growth from both domestic and international clients [2][3]. - The introduction of new products, such as the KS-CM300/200 chemical cleaning machine, has broken foreign monopolies and is expected to drive further growth [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.8 for 2025, reflecting its leading position in the front-end equipment market and promising growth in back-end products [9][12].

2025 年 04 月 27 日 三论黄金坑：迎接"出坑"与科技第二波 本周上证指数涨 0.56%，沪深 300 涨 0.38%，恒生指数涨 2.74%，中小盘成长 风格相对占优，日均全 A 成交额 1.14 万亿元，较此前略有回升但与今年日均成 交额均值 1.46 万亿元差距明显。在此，我们再次重申对于市场的观点：4 月 6 日周报《这是一个"黄金坑"！》提出全球经济大衰退预期过度悲观，大盘指数节 后有望面临"年内黄金坑"。在 4 月 7 日市场大跌后风险偏好明显修复，我们及 时提示：坑底明确，爬坑开启。面对爬坑中遭遇缩量问题，我们勇于再论黄金坑 提出眼下"缩量≠二次探底"。随着本周上证综指一度突破 3300 点，本轮"填 坑行情"已经逐渐接近对等关税落地之前水平，离"出坑"仅有一步之遥。从更 广泛的核心指数上看，增量资金支持的沪深 300 和中证红利指数离"出坑"只 剩不到 2%的空间。结构层面需要注意的一个轮动特征：离"出坑"越远的方向涨 幅越大（如港股科技、小微盘、TMT），而接近"出坑"的方向则涨幅明显放缓。 在过去一段时间，我们反复强调：中美新一轮政策博弈可以看到国内反制在前， 但也要相信对冲在后 ...

2025 年 04 月 27 日 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛起 本期要点：美元阶段见底，科技有望崛起 上期提到，市场有望维持底部震荡格局，下行风险有限，事后来看， 市场不但没有下跌，反倒小幅上涨。从纯技术面的角度看，一般下行 破位之后都存在二次探底的隐忧，但一旦破位之时下跌较为充分，那 么二次探底的风险以及探底的程度都相对较小。进一步，如果此时存 在支持反弹的其他逻辑变量，那么短期甚至不太容易出现二次探底。 从短期视角看，这两个支持市场不太容易二次大幅探底的因素或都存 在，因此当下的潜在下行风险或有限。 因为近期仍存在不少结构性机会，所以我们的仓位模型在原来低仓位 的基础上对仓位的判断适当有所提升。在风格上，我们的风格轮动模 型在原来大盘占优的基础上偏向了均衡风格甚至略偏小盘风格。 在具体行业结构上，我们的四轮驱动模型建议关注电子、计算机、农 林牧渔、纺织服饰、汽车、机械设备等板块。在具体指标维度上，我 们观察到从成交金额占比的角度看，过去两周内 TMT 板块的成交占 比已有从低点小幅回升的迹象，消费板块的成交占比则已经从底部回 升了近两个月。 对于海外市场尤其是美元指数，我们的模型上周多次发出了美元见底 的信 ...

2025 年 04 月 27 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：ASCO 2025 多个国产创新 药获口头报告，数据披露值得期待 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月 21 日-2025 年 4 月 27 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：宜 明昂科（40.20%）、亚盛医药（38.63%）、歌礼制药（27.13%）、加 科思（24.52%）、科笛（24.02%），跌幅前 5 企业：博安生物（-23.11%）、 智翔金泰（-7.30%）、迈博药业（-7.07%）、艾迪药业（-6.30%）、 海思科（-3.76%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 2025 年美国临床肿瘤学会（ASCO）年会将于 5 月 30 日-6 月 3 日召 开，作为肿瘤治疗领域最大的国际会议之一，每年都能吸引全球各地 的生物医药企业积极参与。近日，ASCO 2025 年会披露了即将披露数 据的摘要标题。我们梳理发现，国内多个药企即将在 ASCO 2025 上披 露最新临床数据，多个国产创新药品种有望做口头报告；考虑到口头 报告均为优选数据，存在超预期可能，未来数据披露值得期待。 本周新药获批&受理情况： 本周国内 13 个新药或新适应症获批上市，5 ...

2025 年 04 月 27 日 房地产 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势 周观点：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势 本周，政治局会议召开，聚焦当前经济形势和经济工作。房地产方面， 会议强调加力实施城市更新行动、加大高品质住房供给，持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势。 我们认为，2025 年以来，房地产市场销售呈现逐步改善，新房价格企 稳、二手房交易回升下，房地产行业风险逐渐收敛，政治局会议定调 政策方向处于宽松之下，行业的基本面改善驱动板块的投资机会。建 议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙 头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展 的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（4.19-4.25） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.4 万套，环比上周增长 9.1%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 24.9 万套，累计同比下降 2.9%。其中，一 线城市成交 4251 套，环比上周增长 4.9%，2025 年累计成交 7 万套， 累计同比增长 12.2%；二线城市成交 8452 套，环比上周增长 13.3%， 2025 年累计成交 14.8 万套，累计同比下降 8.8%；三线城市 ...

离子注入机订单持续增长，平台化战略 初现成效 事件：4 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年度报告及 25 年一季报 1）2024 年公司实现营业收入 5.81 亿元，同比-39.72%；实现归母净 利润 1.08 亿元，同比-28.85%；实现扣非后归母净利润-0.55 亿元， 同比-170.63%。 2）25Q1 公司实现营业收入 1.92 亿元，同比+94.09%；实现归母净利 润-0.2 亿元，同比-23.22%；实现扣非后归母净利润-0.04 亿元，同 比-131.03%。 集成电路领域累计获单 19 亿元，离子注入机业务加速突破 24 年公司集成电路设备业务实现多维突破，旗下凯世通及嘉芯半导 体全年新增订单 2.4 亿元，2020 年至今累计订单规模达 19 亿元，其 中凯世通获得 3 家头部客户批量重复订单，并成功开拓 2 家新客户。 分产品看，截至 24 年底凯世通的主要产品在客户销售方面取得显著 成果，其中低能大束流离子注入机客户突破 11 家；超低温离子注入 机客户突破 7 家；高能离子注入机客户突破 2 家。技术研发方面，凯 世通先后量产了技术难度最高、市场需求最大的低能大束流离子注入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a temporary performance pressure in Q1 2025, with revenue of 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, down 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to enter a growth phase as new product cycles begin, with potential for a sales upturn driven by refined product offerings and direct sales channel expansion [4] - The company has significant export potential and a diverse product lineup, which is anticipated to enhance profitability as new models are introduced [4] Revenue Summary - In Q1 2025, total sales were 275,000 units, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with export sales at 91,000 units, down 2% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan, remaining stable year-on-year but down 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Profit Summary - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced scale effects and increased terminal discounts [3] - Sales expenses increased to 2.3 billion yuan, up approximately 900 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to investments in direct sales and marketing for new vehicle launches [3] - Non-recurring gains and losses were 280 million yuan, down 900 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to delayed confirmation of scrap tax refunds [3] Outlook Summary - The mainstream market for new vehicles is expected to see a sales upturn, with successful initial results from new models like the Menglong and New Blue Mountain [4] - The Hi4Z technology is anticipated to significantly enhance the Tank brand's market penetration and profitability [4] - The company is well-positioned for growth with a comprehensive product range and strong technical reserves, particularly in the export market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 14.03 billion yuan, 17.40 billion yuan, and 20.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.1, 11.4, and 9.5 times [5] - A target price of 32.79 yuan per share is set for the next six months based on a 20 times PE for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company with a target price of 19.6 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.118 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.628 billion yuan for 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16% and 11.41% respectively. For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.353 billion yuan and net profit was 518 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 3.46% and 21.57% [1]. - The mobile gaming segment, which accounts for 80% of total revenue, grew by 13.38% year-on-year, although its gross margin decreased by 2.75 percentage points. The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of 222%, albeit with a low revenue contribution of about 7%, and its gross margin improved by 8.53 percentage points [1][2]. - The company has a clear positioning in the gaming industry, focusing on IP games, and has successfully launched new IPs while maintaining classic titles. The overseas expansion strategy is expected to continue driving growth in 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 22.8%, 15%, and 15% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 29.4%, 15%, and 10% respectively. The expected EPS for these years are 0.98 yuan, 1.13 yuan, and 1.23 yuan [3][8]. - The financial metrics indicate a stable performance with a net profit margin of 34.0% in 2023, projected to be 33.5% in 2025, and a return on equity (ROE) of 27.9% in 2023, expected to decline to 22.6% by 2025 [8][9].