GWMOTOR(601633) 国投证券·2025-04-27 09:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced a temporary performance pressure in Q1 2025, with revenue of 40 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, down 46% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company is expected to enter a growth phase as new product cycles begin, with potential for a sales upturn driven by refined product offerings and direct sales channel expansion [4] - The company has significant export potential and a diverse product lineup, which is anticipated to enhance profitability as new models are introduced [4] Revenue Summary - In Q1 2025, total sales were 275,000 units, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with export sales at 91,000 units, down 2% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan, remaining stable year-on-year but down 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Profit Summary - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced scale effects and increased terminal discounts [3] - Sales expenses increased to 2.3 billion yuan, up approximately 900 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to investments in direct sales and marketing for new vehicle launches [3] - Non-recurring gains and losses were 280 million yuan, down 900 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to delayed confirmation of scrap tax refunds [3] Outlook Summary - The mainstream market for new vehicles is expected to see a sales upturn, with successful initial results from new models like the Menglong and New Blue Mountain [4] - The Hi4Z technology is anticipated to significantly enhance the Tank brand's market penetration and profitability [4] - The company is well-positioned for growth with a comprehensive product range and strong technical reserves, particularly in the export market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 14.03 billion yuan, 17.40 billion yuan, and 20.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.1, 11.4, and 9.5 times [5] - A target price of 32.79 yuan per share is set for the next six months based on a 20 times PE for 2025 [5]