证券研究报告 原油周报：关税政策缓和，国际油价上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 4 1. 原油周度数据简报 2. 本周石油石化板块行情回顾 3. 原油板块数据追踪 4. 成品油板块数据追踪 5. 油服板块数据追踪 6. 风险提示 目录 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.5/62.6美元/桶，较上周分别+3.5/+3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比+398/+ 345/+53/-107万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周473台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周193部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tariff policies has led to a divergence in the performance of U.S. stocks and bonds, with stocks recovering while bond yields continue to rise, indicating ongoing pressure on the bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 0.1%, recovering from a previous decline of 17% due to tariff impacts [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.484%, higher than the pre-tariff announcement average of 4.156% and close to the peak level of 4.492% in April [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the bond market remains under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, fiscal outlook, and Federal Reserve expectations [4]. - The recent auction of 10-year Treasuries showed signs of stability, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, indicating healthy demand despite previous volatility [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Pressures - The U.S. Treasury is facing fiscal pressures, with warnings that extraordinary measures to maintain the debt ceiling may run out by August, potentially leading to a funding shortfall [6][7]. - The current statutory debt ceiling stands at $36.1 trillion, and analysts predict a funding shortfall could occur between August and October [7]. Group 4: Tariff and Inflation Concerns - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to affect investor confidence regarding inflation and interest rate forecasts, leading to higher yield demands [8]. - The 10-year Treasury's term premium is currently at 0.69%, close to the peak of 0.84% in April, reflecting ongoing risk perceptions [8]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to concerns about tariffs potentially driving inflation higher [9][10]. - Some analysts have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, now predicting that the Fed may not begin cutting rates until December, rather than July [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the healthcare services industry [6]. Core Insights - The easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to lead to a valuation recovery for the CXO sector, which has been under pressure due to previous tariff escalations [2]. - The tariff relief is anticipated to lower production costs for medical devices, enhancing competitiveness in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. [3]. - The report suggests that domestic companies in the medical device sector are well-positioned to capture market opportunities in the U.S. due to increased demand for cost-effective products [3]. Summary by Sections CXO Sector - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on the CXO sector is complex, with CRO services not directly affected by tariffs but facing uncertainty regarding future tariff increases [2]. - CDMO companies are also navigating complex influences, as their clients are often multinational firms with production bases outside the U.S., allowing them to mitigate tariff impacts [2]. Medical Devices - Domestic companies have made significant advancements in high-end medical equipment and diagnostics, gradually replacing imports [3]. - The tariff easing is expected to stabilize supply chain costs and improve the global market competitiveness of Chinese medical device manufacturers [3]. - There are specific opportunities in the U.S. market, particularly in price-sensitive segments and high-end equipment, where reduced tariffs could facilitate market entry [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant exposure to overseas CRO and CDMO markets, such as WuXi AppTec, and those with substantial U.S. sales in medical devices, like Yihua Jaye [4]. - Companies with strong international expansion capabilities, such as Aihua Long and Shengxiang Biology, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4].

Group 1 - Recent easing of tariff policies and normalization of trade policies may drive markets back to pre-2025 conditions, with a positive outlook on U.S. stocks, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, as well as investment-grade bonds in Europe and the U.S. due to attractive yields and improving macro conditions [1] - The Chinese market has largely recovered to levels seen before the "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced in early April, with sectors such as electric vehicle batteries, construction machinery, home appliances, and pet food companies likely to benefit [1] - Rapid progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has surprised the market, alongside the recent U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, indicating the White House's intention to alleviate trade tensions faster than expected [1] Group 2 - The recent volatility in U.S. local policies has led to market tensions, prompting a downgrade of U.S. assets, but a reversal of these fund flows may now be observed [2] - Reduced tariff uncertainty has lowered the likelihood of an economic recession, with investors potentially looking past the current downturn and anticipating a recovery in the U.S. economy and assets [2] - The U.S. government appears to be shifting its policy direction towards easing tariffs and focusing on growth-promoting measures such as tax cuts [2]

关税政策转机，市场情绪转好 钢材：关税政策转机，市场情绪转好 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3082元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3220元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，全 国库存为814.09万吨，环比上周减少1.21%。其中，钢材库存环比减少4.08%，热卷环比增加3.23%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般偏好，市场整体情绪好转，投机成交有所恢复。 综合来看：热卷：目前板材基本维持高产量，高消费，低库存，尤其在国内低价优势下，出口韧性较强。螺纹： 近期建材产销存数据表现不佳，由于目前短流程持续亏损，建材产量受到边际抑制，建材消费仍处于传统旺季， 整体库存保持低位，后期去库空间有限。昨日成材受关税政策缓和影响，市场情绪高涨，价格上涨。 策略 单边：震荡，关注情绪改善下的贴水修复 黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-13 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：中美谈判超预期，铁矿石大幅上涨 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格大幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于718.5/吨，涨幅3.16%。现货方面，主流 品种价格 ...

Market Reaction - The White House may ease tariff policies, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stock markets, with the Dow Jones up 2.65%, gaining over 1000 points, the Nasdaq up 3.72%, and the S&P 500 up 2.95% [1][2] Technology Sector Performance - Major U.S. tech stocks saw substantial gains, with all seven tech giants rising over 3%, and Amazon increasing nearly 7% [2][3] Chinese Stocks Surge - Chinese stocks also experienced a strong rally, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 5%, and companies like Xiaomi, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba all gaining more than 5% [3][4] European Market Trends - European stock markets also posted significant gains, with France's CAC40 index up over 2%, Germany's DAX index up over 3%, and the European Stoxx 50 index up over 3% [5][6] Gold Market Adjustment - Gold prices continued to decline, with the main futures contract reported at $3287.7 per ounce, reflecting a daily drop of 3.85% [6] U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump indicated that U.S. tariffs on China could significantly decrease, stating that the current 145% tariffs are too high, and a deal could lead to reduced tariffs, though not to zero [8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned that the current situation resembles a trade embargo, and a comprehensive agreement with China could be reached within two to three years [8] Global Debt Concerns - The IMF reported that global public debt levels are rising amid increasing economic uncertainty, with projections indicating that by 2025, global public debt could exceed 95% of GDP [9][10] - The report warns that in extreme scenarios, global public debt could reach 117% of GDP by 2027, marking the highest level since World War II [10]