Proya(603605) 长城证券·2024-08-28 10:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Proya (603605 SH) [1] Core Views - Proya is a leading domestic cosmetics company with over 20 years of industry experience, focusing on building a new domestic cosmetics industry platform [1] - The company has formed a multi-brand matrix covering skincare, makeup, haircare, and high-efficacy skincare, with brands like Proya, Yuefuti, Caitang, Off&Relax, CORRECTORS, INSBAHA, Youzilai, and Hanya [1] - Proya's revenue in 2023 reached 8 89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39 74%, and Q1 2024 revenue was 2 181 billion yuan, up 34 55% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 6 385 billion yuan in 2022 to 17 015 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 26 3% from 2024 to 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 817 million yuan in 2022 to 2 32 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 27 9% from 2024 to 2026 [1] - ROE is expected to remain above 25% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong profitability [1] Industry Analysis - Domestic cosmetics consumption per capita increased from 181 yuan in 2017 to 407 yuan in 2022, and is expected to reach 600 yuan by 2025 [2] - Live streaming e-commerce shows significant growth potential, with Douyin's cosmetics sales during 618 in 2024 increasing by 107% year-on-year [2] - Male skincare market is growing rapidly, with sales on Douyin increasing by 147% during 618 in 2024 [25] Company Strategy - Proya's core strategy focuses on developing star products, with the "Double Anti" and "Ruby" series being the most successful [2] - The company has formed a multi-brand matrix, with Caitang, OR, and Yuefuti contributing significantly to revenue growth [5] - Proya has strengthened its online channels, with online revenue accounting for 93 07% of total revenue in 2023 [13] Product Development - Proya has developed four major product series: Double Anti, Ruby, Source Power, and Energy [2] - The company launched the Energy series in 2023, targeting the anti-aging market with products priced between 450-550 yuan [27] - Caitang focuses on Chinese-style makeup, with products like the Master Multi-Effect Primer and Porcelain Foundation [29] R&D Capabilities - Proya invested 174 million yuan in R&D in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35 59% [31] - The company has 322 R&D personnel, with 88 82% holding bachelor's degrees or higher [32] - Proya holds 348 patents, including key patents for its core products [33] Marketing Strategy - Proya pioneered the "Early C, Late A" skincare concept in China, which has become deeply associated with the brand [37] - The company uses short dramas on Douyin to engage with female consumers, with some series reaching over 700 million views [36] - Caitang emphasizes Chinese aesthetics in its marketing, with products inspired by traditional Chinese culture [37] Valuation and Forecast - Proya's 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted at 3 85 yuan, 4 81 yuan, and 5 85 yuan, respectively [47] - The company's 2024-2026 PE ratios are 21 7X, 17 4X, and 14 3X, respectively [47] - Proya's revenue growth is expected to outpace industry peers, with a projected CAGR of 24 10% from 2024 to 2026 [40]